Wednesday 6 November 2024

History says US stocks have a 95% chance of finishing the year strong — no matter who gets elected

Wall Street stocks markets
Wall Street kept a close eye on election data, but the outcome won't crush stocks.
  • Stocks stumbled heading into the election, but a rebound should be in order.
  • The S&P 500 has an outstanding track record after major rallies in the first 10 months.
  • Here's why history and other key catalysts are on the market's side, according to Truist.

More than seven decades' worth of data suggest that US stocks will end 2024 on a high note.

Investors have been locked in on what's certain to be a consequential election, though the outcome is unlikely to keep equities from charging higher — if history is any indication.

The S&P 500 rose about 20% through October, which was its best performance in an election year since at least 1952, according to a new report from Truist. That gain was fueled by resilient economic growth, lower inflation, and interest rates that fell to less burdensome levels.

Truist election year returns

Stocks have had a rather smooth ride for much of the year, except for a pair of short pullbacks. However, volatility has, predictably, risen substantially in the weeks leading up to the election.

But even after an outstanding run and a recent bout of choppy trading, past precedent implies that the market's path of least resistance is higher.

Why another year-end rally is ahead

November and December have historically been kind to stocks, as they're both among the five best months in markets, based on average returns. Equities rally across those two final months 77% of the time, Truist's research shows, and election years aren't much different.

"The final two months of the year tend to be positive, whether that's an election year or not," wrote Keith Lerner, the chief market strategist at Truist, in a November 4 note.

Even more encouraging for investors is what usually happens after massive market surges.

When the S&P 500 rises at least 15% through October, as it did this year, the index has built on that gain in the next two months in 19 of the 20 previous such instances — or 95% of the time — since 1950, Truist found. The typical gain in those scenarios was close to 5%.

Truist year-end rally returns

Contrary to what bears might say, record highs usually continue to bequeath more record highs, according to Truist. That flies in the face of the belief that stocks are overdue for a downturn.

Highs on highs

Of course, US stocks can't steadily rise forever. Drawdowns are inevitable, as Lerner noted that the S&P 500 typically pulls back by 5% or more three times per year. There have only been two such selloffs this year, which is why the strategy chief is watching for another after the election.

"The weight of the evidence suggests the primary market trends remain positive, even while we expect to see periodic pullbacks along the way," Lerner wrote.

Examining the evidence behind the bull case

The market's strong track record in November and December isn't the only reason Lerner and his colleagues feel confident.

One key catalyst is another successful earnings season. With nearly 80% of third-quarter results in the books, Bank of America found that corporate profits have risen about 6% year-over-year. Earnings growth topped expectations by 2% as of early November, according to the firm.

Truist Q3 2024 earnings

Higher profits can lay the groundwork for further gains by helping justify the market's ambitious valuation. The S&P 500's forward earnings multiple is north of 21x — well above its long-term average of 15.8x. However, neither the equal-weight index nor smaller stocks are overly pricey.

Truist stock vals

History teaches that earnings — not politicians — ultimately determine where stocks go.

Truist returns by president

"Despite election noise, the US continues to lead in innovation and earnings, built on the foundation laid by resilient and inclusive institutions," Lerner wrote.

The strategy chief later said: "Technology has been toward the top [of sector returns] under all three [of the most recent] presidents, likely because that's where the earnings growth has been."

Lower interest rates should be another significant tailwind for stocks. In the last 35 years, the S&P 500 has logged a double-digit gain 12 months after the Federal Reserve's first rate cut every time unless the economy was in a recession.

Truist lower interest rates rally

Economic growth looks strong, so an imminent contraction shouldn't be a concern. Inflation is also heading in the right direction, albeit slowly. And there are other reasons for excitement, in Lerner's view, including the productivity benefits that artificial intelligence can bring.

Pair those present drivers with strong past returns, and the future doesn't look so scary.

"Our view is the ability of the Fed to engineer a soft economic landing and the path of inflation and interest rates as well as artificial intelligence will have a greater impact on markets than the results of the 2024 election," Lerner wrote.

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Photos from the watch parties at Mar-a-Lago and Howard University give an inside look into Trump's and Harris' worlds on election night

Trump's supporters at a campaign election night watch party at the Palm Beach Convention Center.
Trump's supporters at a campaign election night watch party at the Palm Beach Convention Center.
  • The atmospheres at the watch parties for Trump and Harris were starkly different.
  • At Mar-a-Lago and Palm Beach Convention Center, people were celebrating.
  • Howard University's crowd appeared more subdued and somber.

Former President Donald Trump has established a clear lead over Vice President Kamala Harris after winning key battleground states.

Several major news outlets have called Trump's victory in Pennsylvania, a pivotal swing state that was the most sought-after prize on the electoral map.

And the mood at the Mar-a-Lago and Howard University watch parties could not have been more different.

Posts on X showed a bustling Mar-a-Lago crowd. Elon Musk and Dana White, the head of the Ultimate Fighting Championship, appeared to be huddled in conversation with Trump at Mar-a-Lago during the watch party, according to posts by Musk on X.

At the Palm Beach Convention Center watch party, crowds of Trump supporters were seen celebrating as the votes inched closer to a victory for the Republican candidate.

Trump supporters outside the Palm Beach Convention Center.
Trump supporters outside the Palm Beach Convention Center.
Trump supporters outside the Palm Beach Convention Center early on Wednesday.
Trump supporters outside the Palm Beach Convention Center early on Wednesday.

The mood was more somber at the Howard University watch party. Cedric Richmond, the Harris-Walz campaign's co-chair, announced at about 1 a.m. ET that the vice president would not give remarks at Howard University on Tuesday night.

"We still have votes to count. We still have states that have not been called yet. We will continue overnight to fight to make sure that every vote is counted, that every voice has spoken," Richmond said.

He added that Harris would instead speak on Wednesday morning at Howard University.

Supporters react after it was announced that Harris would not speak at election night campaign watch party on Wednesday at Howard University.
Supporters reacting after it was announced that Harris would not speak at election night campaign watch party on Wednesday at Howard University.

Supporters were pictured leaving the venue after it was announced that Harris would not make an appearance there.

Supporters of Harris leaving an election night campaign watch party at Howard University after it was announced that she would not speak there on Wednesday.
Supporters of Harris leaving an election night campaign watch party at Howard University after it was announced that she would not speak there on Wednesday.

Selina Wang, an ABC journalist present at the Howard watch party, posted a video of the scene at the university past midnight on X.

"Lots are leaving," Wang wrote in the caption of the post.

Northwestern University student Eli Kronenberg also posted photos from the location, adding that Harris supporters were leaving the venue.

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My husband and I have been married for 60 years and eat different dinners most nights. Compromise has helped our marriage last.

Benni Korzen holding his wife, Annie Korzen's, chin at a restaurant.
Annie and Benni Korzen have been married for 60 years and eat different dinners most nights.
  • Annie Korzen and her husband, Benni Korzen, have been married for 60 years.
  • Annie Korzen said they eat different dinners, because eating the same food feels like a "sacrifice."
  • This fits a trend of people rejecting marriage norms, from what they eat to non-monogamy.

This as-told-to essay is based on a conversation with Annie Korzen, an 85-year-old actor, writer, and social media influencer based in LA, and the author of "The Book of Annie." The interview has been edited for length and clarity.

My husband and I come from two really different cultures. I grew up in New York's Jewish urban culture, while Benni is from Denmark.

We met in February 1964 on a blind date and we got married that April. I always say I married a stranger and we're still getting to know each other 60 years later. Marriage is something you learn how to do, and every marriage includes some kind of compromise.

Benni is a film producer and artist, and I'm an actor and accidental influencer. I get stopped in the street all the time, which is fun for me because I'm an attention whore, and having a platform has led to a book deal.

My followers on TikTok are really interested in what Benni and I have for dinner because we eat different foods, which I guess is unusual.

Annie and Benni Korzen raising a toast as they eat their evening meals in their home.
The Korzens prefer different cuisines, so Annie tends to eat Asian and Italian-inspired meals, while Benni eats traditional Danish foods.

When we first got married, we tried eating the same meals. But we realized that one of us was always frustrated and eating food that they really didn't want.

My favorite food is Italian and I also love Chinese, Thai, Indian, and Vietnamese. I like anything that combines sweet and sour flavors, and delicate and interesting spices.

Benni eats what I consider very bland foods, from Danish cuisine. His favorite dinner is bread, cheese, sausage, herring, and liver pate. For me, I might have that for breakfast with coffee.

We sometimes eat the same foods to avoid waste

I have learned to eat a lot of Danish specialties which Americans think are very odd — such as fried eel or smoked cod liver — and Danish food isn't unfamiliar to me. It's very similar to the kind of Russian Jewish immigrant food that I grew up with in the Bronx.

But I kind of grew out of that. I enjoy it once in a while, but not as a steady diet the way Benni does, especially because a lot of it is cold and I need a hot meal at night.

We do eat each other's food occasionally, but when we do, it's a slight sacrifice. We do it as part of our partnership or for practical reasons, like reducing food waste. It's not very practical to eat different food every night, and I don't like wasting food, for financial and ecological reasons.

Selfie of Annie and Benni Korzen
Annie and Benni Korzen have made plenty of compromises during their marriage, including sometimes making the "sacrifice" of eating each other's favorite foods.

It's kept us healthy and happy

I would say my diet is healthier because Benni eats more meat. And he eats cheese all the time, much more than he should.

But we try to eat a healthy diet. We never eat without a salad or some vegetable dish, and our snacks and dessert are always fruit.

I wouldn't say eating different dinners is a big issue of conflict in our marriage. It's just something we've learned to do to make us both happy. Marriage is about compromise, and this is better than always being forced to have to have somebody else's food.

You don't want to marry a clone, or a carbon copy of yourself, that would be creepy. Benni and I are different in a lot of ways, not just food. He's a morning person, I'm a night person. I'm very sensitive to temperature, but he isn't.

It's been challenging being married to a Dane, but I'm also very glad. I don't see anything wrong with being different. It allowed him to see the writer in me when I didn't see it in myself, and we learn from each other.

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Trump praises Elon Musk in election night speech: 'A star is born'

Donald Trump points to the crowd before addressing his supporters in the wee hours after Election Day
Former President Donald Trump basked in the near inevitability of his return to the White House.
  • Donald Trump proclaimed that Elon Musk is "a new star."
  • The Tesla CEO spent hundreds of millions on trying to elect Trump and other Republicans.
  • Trump basked in the fact that he was on the cusp of retaking the White House.

Donald Trump on Wednesday morning praised Telsa CEO Elon Musk as the former president neared a return to the White House.

"We have a new star, a star is born," Trump told boisterous supporters in West Palm Beach, Florida. "Elon. He is an amazing guy."

Trump called attention to how Musk campaigned for him around Pennsylvania. Musk, the world's richest man, spent at least $130 million on helping Trump and other Republicans win. On Tuesday night, Musk vowed that his super PAC, America PAC, would continue to operate.

Trump neared victory around 2:30 a.m. Eastern Time after multiple networks projected he would win Pennsylvania, the biggest swing state of all. Vice President Kamala Harris now has virtually no path to the presidency.

GOP Vice Presidential nominee Sen. JD Vance proclaimed Trump's performance "the greatest political comeback in American history."

After leaving office in the wake of the Capitol riot, Trump is now close to becoming just the second person to ever lose the White House and then retake it later.

Trump said that Republicans would "be keeping control of the House of Representatives," though it remains too early to project who will control the House. House Speaker Mike Johnson, who Trump said was doing a "great job," joined Trump on stage.

"He turned out to be a good choice," Trump said of Vance. "I took a little heat at the beginning, but I knew the brain was a good one, as good as it gets."

Trump concluded by urging the nation "to put aside the divisions of the last four years" and vowing to follow through on his campaign promises.

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Tuesday 5 November 2024

Ukraine says it attacked North Korean troops for the first time

A TV screen showing North Korean soldiers on the news.
File images of North Korean soldiers broadcast in Seoul, South Korea.
  • North Korean troops have come under fire after joining Russia's war, Ukrainian officials said.
  • US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said last week that 8,000 North Koreans had been sent to Kursk.
  • The Pentagon says that North Korean troops engaged in combat would make them a fair target in the war.

North Korean troops are already seeing military action in Russia's Kursk region, Ukrainian officials said on Monday.

"The first North Korean troops have already come under fire in Kursk Oblast," Andrii Kovalenko, the head of Ukraine's Center for Countering Disinformation said on Telegram, per The New Voice of Ukraine's translation.

An unnamed senior Ukrainian intelligence official later confirmed the report to the Financial Times but declined to provide further details.

Ukrainian troops have held large areas of Kursk since early August, after Kyiv launched a surprise cross-border offensive in the region.

Last week, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that 8,000 North Korean troops had been moved to Kursk, and he predicted that they would enter the fighting shortly.

"We've not yet seen these troops deploy into combat against Ukrainian forces, but we would expect that to happen in the coming days," he said.

At the same briefing, US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said that if North Korean troops took part in fighting or provided combat support they would become "legitimate military targets."

Kovalenko's statement on Monday was the first to suggest that North Korean troops were now actively fighting alongside Russian troops and against Ukraine.

US Air Force Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder said at a Pentagon briefing on Monday that the US was "looking into" the reports.

Last month, South Korean intelligence said that 1,500 North Korean troops had been shipped to Russia for training and likely deployment in the war.

This came after deepening ties between Moscow and Pyongyang following the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

On Saturday, Ukrainian intelligence shared details of the military equipment it says Russia has issued to North Korean troops, including mortars, rifles, and machine guns.

North Korea experts say the partnership between Moscow and Pyongyang is mutually beneficial: While Russia gets much-needed troops, Kim Jong Un is likely gaining an economic boost for his country as well as military know-how from its dealings with Russia.

Representatives from the Armed Forces of Ukraine and Defence Intelligence of Ukraine did not respond to a Business Insider request for comment.

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China is so crazy about durian that it's now Pizza Hut's best-selling pizza ingredient in the country

A photo of a durian being cut open next to a close-up of a meat pizza from Pizza Hut China.
Durian has become so popular in China that it's now the key ingredient to Pizza Hut's best-selling pizza in the country.
  • Durian pizza is now Pizza Hut's hottest pie in China, with Yum reporting 30 million sold this year.
  • Yum China's CEO, Joey Wat, said on Monday the dish is now Pizza Hut's "No. 1 best-selling pizza."
  • Chinese demand for durian has exploded in recent years, with 1.4 million tons imported last year.

China's durian obsession has run so high that it's now taken pizza sales by storm.

Yum China, which runs Pizza Hut in the country, said in its quarterly earnings call on Monday that durian pizza has become its top pie nationwide.

"One in every four pizzas sold in Pizza Hut China is now a durian pizza. We sold nearly 30 million durian pizzas year-to-date," said Joey Wat, Yum China's CEO, in a call with analysts.

The dish is "now our No. 1 best-selling pizza," she added.

China has, in recent years, been a raging consumer of durian, known in Asia as the king of fruit. Protected by a thorny, hard husk, each contains several yellow or orange globules of custard-like pulp wrapped around a seed.

Durian lovers praise the fruit for its bittersweet taste, but it's notorious outside Asia for what some say is a putrid odor.

A slice of durian cheese pizza is lifted from the board.
A promotional image for Pizza Hut China's durian pizza.

China is by far the world's biggest importer of durian, bringing in 1.4 million tons of the fruit in 2023 alone. That year, HSBC analysts said the country was largely responsible for a 400% surge in durian demand worldwide.

Grown typically in Southeast Asia on trees that take nearly a decade to mature, it's seen as a luxury item in Chinese cities, which regularly hold entire festivals dedicated to tasting the fruit.

Yum China launched its durian pizza eight years ago. In its 2023 annual report, it said that the dish has officially brought in at least $100 million in sales since then.

In August, a beef burger made with pizza dough that was stuffed with durian and pineapple also debuted on the Pizza Hut menu in China, and Wat said on Monday that the item "quickly sold out" after its limited launch.

The firm has been aggressively trying to expand its reach to middle-class consumers in the country, building nearly 1,700 new KFC and Pizza Hut stores in 2023 and between 1,500 and 1,700 more planned for 2024.

Yum said it plans to spend between $700 and $850 million on capex this year, up from $710 million last year and $419 million before the pandemic.

Meanwhile, Chinese state media reported that the country imported about $6.72 billion worth of durian in 2023, making it the most-imported fruit in the country.

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Monday 4 November 2024

How the election will impact your wallet

Trump and Harris.

For many Americans, the most important focus heading into a presidential election is how the winner will impact their wallet. Whatever your financial priorities, Business Insider has you covered with a five-part series on the impacts a Trump or a Harris presidency could have on US consumers.

You can go deep on how the race for the White House could impact everything from childcare costs to housing to your grocery bill. Just follow the links below, or keep scrolling for a speed-read.

Investments

Trump

The former president's plan to cut the corporate tax rate is generally viewed as bullish for earnings, particularly for the consumer-discretionary, communication-services, and financial sectors. However, his plan to tax all US imports is viewed as a headwind that could be inflationary and hit consumer spending.

If those inflation worries come true, interest rates would be higher and push bond prices lower. Trump is also seen as bullish for crypto, and his protectionist policies are viewed as likely to push the dollar higher.

Harris

The current vice president's plan to raise the corporate tax rate is expected to hit the beneficiaries of Trump's proposed cut hardest. Her plan to regulate the financial sector is also seen as holding back stocks in the industry. On the positive side, Harris' policies would likely benefit homebuilder and renewable-energy stocks.

Harris' plans are also considered to be less inflationary than Trump's, which would allow the Federal Reserve to keep cutting rates, boosting bond prices. Her continuity with President Joe Biden's policies is expected to push the dollar lower. Harris is also viewed as crypto-positive.

Costs

Trump

Trump's plan to impose a broad-based 10%-to-20% tariff on most goods brought in from other countries is widely viewed as making import-reliant products more expensive. Major categories with high potential tariff exposure include automobiles, drugs for human and veterinary use, food and beverage, furniture, and household appliances.

Relatedly, the former president has previously said he'll lower grocery prices by restricting food imports to bolster domestic producers.

Harris

While Harris could continue tariffs instated by Biden, her import-tax policy is seen as less inflationary than Trump's. For groceries, the vice president released a plan to tackle high food costs by implementing a federal ban on price gouging during national emergencies.

For drug prices, Harris has promised to expand two provisions in the Inflation Reduction Act, allowing Medicare to negotiate the prices of some drugs.

Housing

Trump

Trump has said on the campaign trail that the ongoing housing shortage could be addressed by deporting millions of people from the country. The former president also said he could decrease demand by banning mortgages for immigrants living in the US illegally.

Further — during his previous White House tenure — Trump opposed the construction of high-density housing in single-family-zoned areas, although he has not said during this election cycle whether he wants to continue pursuing similar policies.

Harris

Harris' planned policy includes the construction of 3 million new housing units, as well as an expansion to the Low-Income Housing Tax Credit. She also plans to create a $40 billion federal innovation fund that would encourage local governments to build housing.

The vice president has also said she would take action against "corporate landlords" and call on Congress to remove tax benefits from investors who acquire 50 or more single-family rental homes.

Taxes

Trump

Trump has proposed lowering the corporate tax rate from 21% to 15% for firms that make their products in the US.

The former president has also said he plans to extend his slew of tax cuts from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 — also known as the "Trump tax cut."

A permanent continuation of the TCJA's income-tax provisions would amount to a nearly $280,000 tax cut for the top 0.1% of earners, compared to $1,000 for middle-income Americas, a Tax Policy Center analysis found. Trump's plan for universal tariffs is seen as offsetting a positive tax impact and would be especially costly for lower-earning Americans.

Harris

Harris wants to bump up the corporate tax rate from 21% to 28%, while also proposing some specific breaks for small businesses.

The vice president has also proposed an expanded earned-income tax credit aimed at lower earners, and she wants to restore and expand upon a more generous child tax credit, similar to the one implemented under Biden's pandemic-relief bill in 2021. Harris also shares some middle ground with Trump in terms of wanting to eliminate taxes on tips.

For high-income earners, Harris supports two measures that have gained traction during the Biden administration: targeting ultrawealthy investors' capital gains, and imposing a minimum income tax on billionaires.

Childcare

Trump

Trump has also proposed expanding the child tax credit, which currently provides up to $2,000 per child. In August, the vice presidential candidate JD Vance floated a child tax credit proposal that would include $5,000 per child for families of all income levels.

In addition, while previously in office, Trump signed a bipartisan bill that provided federal employees with 12 weeks of paid parental leave, although he hasn't emphasized the issue on the 2024 campaign trail.

Harris

Harris has promised to cap families' childcare costs at no more than 7% of their incomes, compared to the between 8% and 19.3% spent by the median American family in 2022. The vice president's child tax credit policy would restore the enhanced pandemic-era credit, giving parents up to $3,600 annually per child, with the amount dependent on a child's age and family income.

Further, during her run for president in 2020, Harris supported a six-month paid-leave policy for Americans with a new child or a sick relative.

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History says US stocks have a 95% chance of finishing the year strong — no matter who gets elected

Wall Street kept a close eye on election data, but the outcome won't crush stocks. Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images Stocks stumbled...