November 13 COVID-19 Test Results; Record Cases, Record Hospitalizations

The end of the pandemic is coming, possibly by Q2 2021! Please be careful, especially over the holidays. Thanksgiving, Christmas and New Years will be tough this year, but keep your guard up - plan now to have safe holidays.

The US is now averaging over 1 million tests per day. Based on the experience of other countries, for adequate test-and-trace (and isolation) to reduce infections, the percent positive needs to be well under 5% (probably close to 1%), so the US still needs to increase the number of tests per day significantly (or take actions to push down the number of new infections).

There were 1,383,088 test results reported over the last 24 hours.

There were 170,333 positive tests. This is a new record.

Over 13,000 US deaths have been reported so far in November. See the graph on US Daily Deaths here.

Click on graph for larger image.

This data is from the COVID Tracking Project.

The percent positive over the last 24 hours was 12.3% (red line is 7 day average).  The percent positive is calculated by dividing positive results by the sum of negative and positive results (I don't include pending).

And check out COVID Exit Strategy to see how each state is doing.

The second graph shows the 7 day average of positive tests reported and daily hospitalizations.

The dashed line is the previous hospitalization maximum.

Note that there were very few tests available in March and April, and many cases were missed, so the hospitalizations was higher relative to the 7-day average of positive tests in July. 

Now, there are many more tests, and many cases are being detected earlier - so hospitalizations have lagged.   Hospitalizations are now at a new record.

This is a new record 7-day average cases for the USA.

from Calculated Risk https://ift.tt/3ptMZ2v

November 13 COVID-19 Test Results; Record Cases, Record Hospitalizations

The end of the pandemic is coming, possibly by Q2 2021! Please be careful, especially over the holidays. Thanksgiving, Christmas and New Years will be tough this year, but keep your guard up - plan now to have safe holidays.

The US is now averaging over 1 million tests per day. Based on the experience of other countries, for adequate test-and-trace (and isolation) to reduce infections, the percent positive needs to be well under 5% (probably close to 1%), so the US still needs to increase the number of tests per day significantly (or take actions to push down the number of new infections).

There were 1,383,088 test results reported over the last 24 hours.

There were 170,333 positive tests. This is a new record.

Over 13,000 US deaths have been reported so far in November. See the graph on US Daily Deaths here.

Click on graph for larger image.

This data is from the COVID Tracking Project.

The percent positive over the last 24 hours was 12.3% (red line is 7 day average).  The percent positive is calculated by dividing positive results by the sum of negative and positive results (I don't include pending).

And check out COVID Exit Strategy to see how each state is doing.

The second graph shows the 7 day average of positive tests reported and daily hospitalizations.

The dashed line is the previous hospitalization maximum.

Note that there were very few tests available in March and April, and many cases were missed, so the hospitalizations was higher relative to the 7-day average of positive tests in July. 

Now, there are many more tests, and many cases are being detected earlier - so hospitalizations have lagged.   Hospitalizations are now at a new record.

This is a new record 7-day average cases for the USA.

from Calculated Risk https://ift.tt/3ptMZ2v

November 12 COVID-19 Test Results; Record Cases, Record Hospitalizations

The end of the pandemic is coming, possibly by Q2 2021! Please be careful, especially over the holidays. Thanksgiving, Christmas and New Years will be tough this year, but keep your guard up - plan now to have safe holidays.

The US is now averaging over 1 million tests per day. Based on the experience of other countries, for adequate test-and-trace (and isolation) to reduce infections, the percent positive needs to be well under 5% (probably close to 1%), so the US still needs to increase the number of tests per day significantly (or take actions to push down the number of new infections).

There were 1,159,951 test results reported over the last 24 hours.

There were 150,526 positive tests. This is a new record.

Over 12,000 US deaths have been reported so far in November. See the graph on US Daily Deaths here.

Click on graph for larger image.

This data is from the COVID Tracking Project.

The percent positive over the last 24 hours was 13.0% (red line is 7 day average).

For the status of contact tracing by state, check out testandtrace.com.

And check out COVID Exit Strategy to see how each state is doing.

The second graph shows the 7 day average of positive tests reported and daily hospitalizations.

The dashed line is the previous hospitalization maximum.

Note that there were very few tests available in March and April, and many cases were missed, so the hospitalizations was higher relative to the 7-day average of positive tests in July. 

Now, there are many more tests, and many cases are being detected earlier - so hospitalizations have lagged.   Hospitalizations are now at a new record.

This is a new record 7-day average cases for the USA.

from Calculated Risk https://ift.tt/38QiSgb

November 11 COVID-19 Test Results; Record Cases, Record Hospitalizations

The end of the pandemic is coming, possibly by Q2 2021! Please be careful, especially over the holidays. Thanksgiving, Christmas and New Years will be tough this year, but keep your guard up - plan now to have safe holidays.

The US is now averaging over 1 million tests per day. Based on the experience of other countries, for adequate test-and-trace (and isolation) to reduce infections, the percent positive needs to be well under 5% (probably close to 1%), so the US still needs to increase the number of tests per day significantly (or take actions to push down the number of new infections).

There were 1,134,101 test results reported over the last 24 hours.

There were 144,270 positive tests. This is a new record.

Almost 11,000 US deaths have been reported so far in November. See the graph on US Daily Deaths here.

Click on graph for larger image.

This data is from the COVID Tracking Project.

The percent positive over the last 24 hours was 12.7% (red line is 7 day average).

For the status of contact tracing by state, check out testandtrace.com.

And check out COVID Exit Strategy to see how each state is doing.

The second graph shows the 7 day average of positive tests reported and daily hospitalizations.

The dashed line is the previous hospitalization maximum.

Note that there were very few tests available in March and April, and many cases were missed, so the hospitalizations was higher relative to the 7-day average of positive tests in July. 

Now, there are many more tests, and many cases are being detected earlier - so hospitalizations have lagged.   Hospitalizations are now at a new record.

This is a new record 7-day average cases for the USA.

from Calculated Risk https://ift.tt/32SAIeH

November 11 COVID-19 Test Results; Record Cases, Record Hospitalizations

The end of the pandemic is coming, possibly by Q2 2021! Please be careful, especially over the holidays. Thanksgiving, Christmas and New Years will be tough this year, but keep your guard up - plan now to have safe holidays.

The US is now averaging over 1 million tests per day. Based on the experience of other countries, for adequate test-and-trace (and isolation) to reduce infections, the percent positive needs to be well under 5% (probably close to 1%), so the US still needs to increase the number of tests per day significantly (or take actions to push down the number of new infections).

There were 1,134,101 test results reported over the last 24 hours.

There were 144,270 positive tests. This is a new record.

Almost 11,000 US deaths have been reported so far in November. See the graph on US Daily Deaths here.

Click on graph for larger image.

This data is from the COVID Tracking Project.

The percent positive over the last 24 hours was 12.7% (red line is 7 day average).

For the status of contact tracing by state, check out testandtrace.com.

And check out COVID Exit Strategy to see how each state is doing.

The second graph shows the 7 day average of positive tests reported and daily hospitalizations.

The dashed line is the previous hospitalization maximum.

Note that there were very few tests available in March and April, and many cases were missed, so the hospitalizations was higher relative to the 7-day average of positive tests in July. 

Now, there are many more tests, and many cases are being detected earlier - so hospitalizations have lagged.   Hospitalizations are now at a new record.

This is a new record 7-day average cases for the USA.

from Calculated Risk https://ift.tt/32SAIeH

November 10 COVID-19 Test Results; Record Cases, Record Hospitalizations

The end of the pandemic is coming, possibly by Q2 2021! Please be careful, especially over the holidays. Thanksgiving, Christmas and New Years will be tough this year, but keep your guard up - plan now to have safe holidays.

The US is now averaging over 1 million tests per day. Based on the experience of other countries, for adequate test-and-trace (and isolation) to reduce infections, the percent positive needs to be well under 5% (probably close to 1%), so the US still needs to increase the number of tests per day significantly (or take actions to push down the number of new infections).

There were 1,069,405 test results reported over the last 24 hours.

There were 130,989 positive tests. This is a new record.

Over 9,000 US deaths have been reported so far in November. See the graph on US Daily Deaths here.

Click on graph for larger image.

This data is from the COVID Tracking Project.

The percent positive over the last 24 hours was 12.2% (red line is 7 day average).

For the status of contact tracing by state, check out testandtrace.com.

And check out COVID Exit Strategy to see how each state is doing.

The second graph shows the 7 day average of positive tests reported and daily hospitalizations.

The dashed line is the previous hospitalization maximum.

Note that there were very few tests available in March and April, and many cases were missed, so the hospitalizations was higher relative to the 7-day average of positive tests in July. 

Now, there are many more tests, and many cases are being detected earlier - so hospitalizations have lagged.   Hospitalizations are now at a new record.

This is a new record 7-day average cases for the USA.

from Calculated Risk https://ift.tt/36sIwEE

November 8 COVID-19 Test Results; Hospitalizations almost 57,000

Note: I look forward to when I will not be posting this daily!

The US is now averaging close to 1 million tests per day. Based on the experience of other countries, for adequate test-and-trace (and isolation) to reduce infections, the percent positive needs to be well under 5% (probably close to 1%), so the US still needs to increase the number of tests per day significantly (or take actions to push down the number of new infections).

There were 881,251 test results reported over the last 24 hours.

There were 102,588 positive tests. This is a Sunday reporting record.

Almost 7,500 US deaths have been reported so far in November. See the graph on US Daily Deaths here.

Click on graph for larger image.

This data is from the COVID Tracking Project.

The percent positive over the last 24 hours was 11.6% (red line is 7 day average).

For the status of contact tracing by state, check out testandtrace.com.

And check out COVID Exit Strategy to see how each state is doing.

The second graph shows the 7 day average of positive tests reported and daily hospitalizations.

The dashed line is the previous hospitalization maximum.

Note that there were very few tests available in March and April, and many cases were missed, so the hospitalizations was higher relative to the 7-day average of positive tests in July. 

Now, there are many more tests, and many cases are being detected earlier - so hospitalizations have lagged. However, it is likely that hospitalizations will be at a new high in a few days.

This is a new record 7-day average cases for the USA.

from Calculated Risk https://ift.tt/3kfVF90

November 8 COVID-19 Test Results; Hospitalizations almost 57,000

Note: I look forward to when I will not be posting this daily!

The US is now averaging close to 1 million tests per day. Based on the experience of other countries, for adequate test-and-trace (and isolation) to reduce infections, the percent positive needs to be well under 5% (probably close to 1%), so the US still needs to increase the number of tests per day significantly (or take actions to push down the number of new infections).

There were 881,251 test results reported over the last 24 hours.

There were 102,588 positive tests. This is a Sunday reporting record.

Almost 7,500 US deaths have been reported so far in November. See the graph on US Daily Deaths here.

Click on graph for larger image.

This data is from the COVID Tracking Project.

The percent positive over the last 24 hours was 11.6% (red line is 7 day average).

For the status of contact tracing by state, check out testandtrace.com.

And check out COVID Exit Strategy to see how each state is doing.

The second graph shows the 7 day average of positive tests reported and daily hospitalizations.

The dashed line is the previous hospitalization maximum.

Note that there were very few tests available in March and April, and many cases were missed, so the hospitalizations was higher relative to the 7-day average of positive tests in July. 

Now, there are many more tests, and many cases are being detected earlier - so hospitalizations have lagged. However, it is likely that hospitalizations will be at a new high in a few days.

This is a new record 7-day average cases for the USA.

from Calculated Risk https://ift.tt/3kfVF90

Sunday Night Futures

Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of November 8, 2020

• GDP and Employment drag from State and Local Governments

Monday:
• At 2:00 PM ET, Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices for October.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up 34 and DOW futures are up 270 (fair value).

Oil prices were down over the last week with WTI futures at $37.83 per barrel and Brent at $40.11 barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $57, and Brent was at $62 - so WTI oil prices are down over 30% year-over-year.

Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $2.09 per gallon. A year ago prices were at $2.64 per gallon, so gasoline prices are down $0.55 per gallon year-over-year.

from Calculated Risk https://ift.tt/3ld4C4b

Sunday Night Futures

Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of November 8, 2020

• GDP and Employment drag from State and Local Governments

Monday:
• At 2:00 PM ET, Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices for October.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up 34 and DOW futures are up 270 (fair value).

Oil prices were down over the last week with WTI futures at $37.83 per barrel and Brent at $40.11 barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $57, and Brent was at $62 - so WTI oil prices are down over 30% year-over-year.

Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $2.09 per gallon. A year ago prices were at $2.64 per gallon, so gasoline prices are down $0.55 per gallon year-over-year.

from Calculated Risk https://ift.tt/3ld4C4b

November 7 COVID-19 Test Results; Record Cases; Hospitalizations almost 56,000

Note: I look forward to when I will not be posting this daily!

The US is now averaging close to 1 million tests per day. Based on the experience of other countries, for adequate test-and-trace (and isolation) to reduce infections, the percent positive needs to be well under 5% (probably close to 1%), so the US still needs to increase the number of tests per day significantly (or take actions to push down the number of new infections).

There were 1,068,815 test results reported over the last 24 hours.

There were 128,396 positive tests. (New record)

Almost 7,000 US deaths have been reported so far in November. See the graph on US Daily Deaths here.

Click on graph for larger image.

This data is from the COVID Tracking Project.

The percent positive over the last 24 hours was 12.0% (red line is 7 day average).

For the status of contact tracing by state, check out testandtrace.com.

And check out COVID Exit Strategy to see how each state is doing.

The second graph shows the 7 day average of positive tests reported.

The dashed line is the July high.

Note that there were very few tests available in March and April, and many cases were missed (the percent positive was very high - see first graph). By June, the percent positive had dropped below 5%.

This is a new record 7-day average cases for the USA.

from Calculated Risk https://ift.tt/3p4Vscl

November 7 COVID-19 Test Results; Record Cases; Hospitalizations almost 56,000

Note: I look forward to when I will not be posting this daily!

The US is now averaging close to 1 million tests per day. Based on the experience of other countries, for adequate test-and-trace (and isolation) to reduce infections, the percent positive needs to be well under 5% (probably close to 1%), so the US still needs to increase the number of tests per day significantly (or take actions to push down the number of new infections).

There were 1,068,815 test results reported over the last 24 hours.

There were 128,396 positive tests. (New record)

Almost 7,000 US deaths have been reported so far in November. See the graph on US Daily Deaths here.

Click on graph for larger image.

This data is from the COVID Tracking Project.

The percent positive over the last 24 hours was 12.0% (red line is 7 day average).

For the status of contact tracing by state, check out testandtrace.com.

And check out COVID Exit Strategy to see how each state is doing.

The second graph shows the 7 day average of positive tests reported.

The dashed line is the July high.

Note that there were very few tests available in March and April, and many cases were missed (the percent positive was very high - see first graph). By June, the percent positive had dropped below 5%.

This is a new record 7-day average cases for the USA.

from Calculated Risk https://ift.tt/3p4Vscl

Seattle Real Estate in October: Sales up 40% YoY, Inventory UP 16% YoY

The Northwest Multiple Listing Service reported October Statistical Data

The Northwest MLS report recapping October activity showed a 40% drop in active listings compared to the same month a year ago, an increase of 16% in pending sales (mutually accepted offers), and a year-over-year (YOY) jump of nearly 30% in closed sales. The median price of single family homes and condominiums that sold last month was $500,000, up 19% from the same period a year ago, according to the MLS summary, which encompasses 23 counties, mostly in Western and Central Washington.
...
Matthew Gardner, chief economist at Windermere Real Estate, said his biggest concern continues to be the ongoing lack of homes for sale in the Central Puget Sound area. “Keep in mind that a four month supply of homes for sale is a sign of a balanced housing market, but in 14 counties, including the King/Pierce/Snohomish region, there is currently less than one month of supply. This is what is allowing home prices to escalate at double digit rates.”
emphasis added

The press release is for the Northwest MLS area. There were 10,806 sales in October 2020, up 29.7% from 8,335 sales in October 2019.

In King County, sales were up 40% year-over-year, and active inventory was down 21% year-over-year.

In Seattle, sales were up 39.9% year-over-year, and inventory was up 16% year-over-year..  This puts the months-of-supply in Seattle at just 1.7 months.

from Calculated Risk https://ift.tt/32kUKhg

November 5 COVID-19 Test Results; Record Cases; Hospitalizations over 53,000

Note: I look forward to when I will not be posting this daily!

The US is now averaging close to 1 million tests per day. Based on the experience of other countries, for adequate test-and-trace (and isolation) to reduce infections, the percent positive needs to be well under 5% (probably close to 1%), so the US still needs to increase the number of tests per day significantly (or take actions to push down the number of new infections).

There were 1,271,748 test results reported over the last 24 hours.

There were 116,255 positive tests. (New record)

Over 4,500 US deaths have been reported so far in November. See the graph on US Daily Deaths here.

Click on graph for larger image.

This data is from the COVID Tracking Project.

The percent positive over the last 24 hours was 9.1% (red line is 7 day average).

For the status of contact tracing by state, check out testandtrace.com.

And check out COVID Exit Strategy to see how each state is doing.

The second graph shows the 7 day average of positive tests reported.

The dashed line is the July high.

Note that there were very few tests available in March and April, and many cases were missed (the percent positive was very high - see first graph). By June, the percent positive had dropped below 5%.

This is a new record 7-day average cases for the USA.

from Calculated Risk https://ift.tt/2TWgbka

November 5 COVID-19 Test Results; Record Cases; Hospitalizations over 53,000

Note: I look forward to when I will not be posting this daily!

The US is now averaging close to 1 million tests per day. Based on the experience of other countries, for adequate test-and-trace (and isolation) to reduce infections, the percent positive needs to be well under 5% (probably close to 1%), so the US still needs to increase the number of tests per day significantly (or take actions to push down the number of new infections).

There were 1,271,748 test results reported over the last 24 hours.

There were 116,255 positive tests. (New record)

Over 4,500 US deaths have been reported so far in November. See the graph on US Daily Deaths here.

Click on graph for larger image.

This data is from the COVID Tracking Project.

The percent positive over the last 24 hours was 9.1% (red line is 7 day average).

For the status of contact tracing by state, check out testandtrace.com.

And check out COVID Exit Strategy to see how each state is doing.

The second graph shows the 7 day average of positive tests reported.

The dashed line is the July high.

Note that there were very few tests available in March and April, and many cases were missed (the percent positive was very high - see first graph). By June, the percent positive had dropped below 5%.

This is a new record 7-day average cases for the USA.

from Calculated Risk https://ift.tt/2TWgbka

November 3 COVID-19 Test Results

Note: I look forward to when I will not be posting this daily!

The US is now averaging close to 1 million tests per day. Based on the experience of other countries, for adequate test-and-trace (and isolation) to reduce infections, the percent positive needs to be well under 5% (probably close to 1%), so the US still needs to increase the number of tests per day significantly (or take actions to push down the number of new infections).

There were 927,029 test results reported over the last 24 hours.

There were 86,507 positive tests. (New Tuesday record)

Almost 2,000 US deaths have been reported so far in November. See the graph on US Daily Deaths here.

Click on graph for larger image.

This data is from the COVID Tracking Project.

The percent positive over the last 24 hours was 9.3% (red line is 7 day average).

For the status of contact tracing by state, check out testandtrace.com.

And check out COVID Exit Strategy to see how each state is doing.

The second graph shows the 7 day average of positive tests reported.

The dashed line is the July high.

Note that there were very few tests available in March and April, and many cases were missed (the percent positive was very high - see first graph). By June, the percent positive had dropped below 5%.

This is a new record 7-day average cases for the USA.

from Calculated Risk https://ift.tt/34UCRI8

November 2 COVID-19 Test Results

Note: I look forward to when I will not be posting this daily!

The US is now averaging close to 1 million tests per day. Based on the experience of other countries, the percent positive needs to be well under 5% to really push down new infections (probably close to 1%), so the US still needs to increase the number of tests per day significantly (or take actions to push down the number of new infections).

There were 1,142,923 test results reported over the last 24 hours.

There were 82,895 positive tests. (New Monday record)

This is the highest 7-day average for deaths since the first half of September. See the graph on US Daily Deaths here.

Click on graph for larger image.

This data is from the COVID Tracking Project.

The percent positive over the last 24 hours was 7.5% (red line is 7 day average).

For the status of contact tracing by state, check out testandtrace.com.

And check out COVID Exit Strategy to see how each state is doing.

The second graph shows the 7 day average of positive tests reported.

The dashed line is the July high.

Note that there were very few tests available in March and April, and many cases were missed (the percent positive was very high - see first graph). By June, the percent positive had dropped below 5%.

This is a new record 7-day average cases for the USA.

from Calculated Risk https://ift.tt/3mMnyqZ

Monday: ISM Mfg, Construction Spending, Vehicle Sales

Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of November 1, 2020

• FOMC Preview

Monday:
• At 10:00 AM ET, ISM Manufacturing Index for October.  The consensus is for 55.8%, up from 55.4%.

• Also at 10:00 AM, Construction Spending for September.  The consensus is for 0.9% increase in spending.

• All day, Light vehicle sales for October. The consensus is for sales of 16.5 million SAAR, up from 16.3 million SAAR in September (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are down 12 and DOW futures are down 150 (fair value).

Oil prices were down over the last week with WTI futures at $34.18 per barrel and Brent at $36.36 barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $56, and Brent was at $60 - so WTI oil prices are down about 40% year-over-year.

Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $2.11 per gallon. A year ago prices were at $2.58 per gallon, so gasoline prices are down $0.47 per gallon year-over-year.

from Calculated Risk https://ift.tt/3kOV8vW

November 1 COVID-19 Test Results

Note: I look forward to when I will not be posting this daily!

The US is now averaging close to 1 million tests per day. Based on the experience of other countries, the percent positive needs to be well under 5% to really push down new infections (probably close to 1%), so the US still needs to increase the number of tests per day significantly (or take actions to push down the number of new infections).

There were 838,148 test results reported over the last 24 hours.

There were 74,443 positive tests. (New Sunday record)

Over 23,000 Americans deaths from COVID were reported in October. See the graph on US Daily Deaths here.

Click on graph for larger image.

This data is from the COVID Tracking Project.

The percent positive over the last 24 hours was 8.9% (red line is 7 day average).

For the status of contact tracing by state, check out testandtrace.com.

And check out COVID Exit Strategy to see how each state is doing.

The second graph shows the 7 day average of positive tests reported.

The dashed line is the July high.

Note that there were very few tests available in March and April, and many cases were missed (the percent positive was very high - see first graph). By June, the percent positive had dropped below 5%.

This is a new record 7-day average for the USA.

from Calculated Risk https://ift.tt/323sqjI

Monday: ISM Mfg, Construction Spending, Vehicle Sales

Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of November 1, 2020

• FOMC Preview

Monday:
• At 10:00 AM ET, ISM Manufacturing Index for October.  The consensus is for 55.8%, up from 55.4%.

• Also at 10:00 AM, Construction Spending for September.  The consensus is for 0.9% increase in spending.

• All day, Light vehicle sales for October. The consensus is for sales of 16.5 million SAAR, up from 16.3 million SAAR in September (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are down 12 and DOW futures are down 150 (fair value).

Oil prices were down over the last week with WTI futures at $34.18 per barrel and Brent at $36.36 barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $56, and Brent was at $60 - so WTI oil prices are down about 40% year-over-year.

Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $2.11 per gallon. A year ago prices were at $2.58 per gallon, so gasoline prices are down $0.47 per gallon year-over-year.

from Calculated Risk https://ift.tt/3kOV8vW