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Wednesday, 31 January 2018
Shutterfly to Buy School Photos Provider Lifetouch for $825 Million
from WSJ.com: US Business http://ift.tt/2E3A9mM
United Airlines Just Did Passengers a Huge Favor for Which Everyone Should Be Grateful
from Inc.com http://ift.tt/2nnKwsm
6 Growth Challenges Your Business Will Face (And How to Overcome Them)
from Inc.com http://ift.tt/2Fx9snU
Women at Work: Make Yourself Heard
In this special episode, HBR IdeaCast host Sarah Green Carmichael introduces Harvard Business Review’s new podcast “Women at Work,” about women’s experiences in the workplace. This episode about being heard tackles three aspects of communication: first, how and why women’s speech patterns differ from men’s; second, how women can be more assertive in meetings; and third, how women can deal with interrupters (since the science shows women get interrupted more often than men do). Guests: Deborah Tannen, Jill Flynn, and Amy Gallo.
from HBR.org http://ift.tt/2E0zlit
German industrial union steps up strike campaign
from Business Headlines http://ift.tt/2ErGaYv
Nevada gambling board investigates Wynn sex allegations
from Business Headlines http://ift.tt/2nnQYzn
Massachusetts gambling regulators to review Wynn allegations
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Asian stocks mixed after Wall Street's sharp decline
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Pfizer, riding tax changes, puts up huge 4Q profit
from Business Headlines http://ift.tt/2Gvx1yp
Volkswagen Suspends Top Lobbyist Amid Inquiry Into Diesel Tests on Monkeys
from NYT > Business Day http://ift.tt/2E1NwnI
‘Gloomy.’ ‘Amazing.’ Trump’s Speech Divides the Pundits.
from NYT > Business Day http://ift.tt/2DQhSGn
The Shift: Kodak’s Dubious Cryptocurrency Gamble
from NYT > Business Day http://ift.tt/2DWC2ln
Square Feet: Along Miami River, Derelict Bait Shops Give Way to Luxury Condos
from NYT > Business Day http://ift.tt/2DPvwxD
Exxon Mobil Tripling Its Bet on the Hottest U.S. Shale Field
from NYT > Business Day http://ift.tt/2rPzEbf
Facebook Bans Ads for Bitcoin and Other Cryptocurrencies
from NYT > Business Day http://ift.tt/2DQGbrS
Vice Media’s Digital Chief Loses Job After Sexual Harassment Investigation
from NYT > Business Day http://ift.tt/2E3ccfx
Hawaii Missile Alert Wasn’t Accidental, Officials Say, Blaming Worker
from NYT > Business Day http://ift.tt/2Eq6iCW
Amazon, Berkshire Hathaway and JPMorgan Team Up to Try to Disrupt Health Care
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‘Dr. Alexa, I’ve Been Sneezing and My Throat Is Sore’
from NYT > Business Day http://ift.tt/2EqkQCB
Wag, the Dog-Walking Service, Lands $300 Million From SoftBank Vision Fund
from NYT > Business Day http://ift.tt/2E1fH6c
Economic Scene: After Globalization, a New Specter Could Feed Populist Politics
from NYT > Business Day http://ift.tt/2EpazXj
4 Questions as Amazon, Berkshire and JPMorgan Take on Health Care: DealBook Briefing
from NYT > Business Day http://ift.tt/2EnGQOd
Can Amazon and Friends Handle Health Care? There’s Reason for Doubt
from NYT > Business Day http://ift.tt/2Gt9ezb
Complaint Accuses Contractor of Underpayment at Medicare Call Centers
from NYT > Business Day http://ift.tt/2rRGPzB
Recent Commercial Real Estate Transactions
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Scott Pruitt, the E.P.A. Chief, Assailed Trump in a 2016 Interview
from NYT > Business Day http://ift.tt/2E29mYk
Show Us Your Wall: Candles and a Cake? This Is a Much Better Way to Honor a Birthday
from NYT > Business Day http://ift.tt/2DZ2Tx3
Walmart’s Locking Up of Certain Beauty Products Is Racial Discrimination, Suit Claims
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Kenyans Name a ‘People’s President,’ and TV Broadcasts Are Cut
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Thomson Reuters Sells Stake in Unit to Blackstone-Led Group
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China Could Target U.S. Firms if Trump Levies Tariffs, Group Warns
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Taiwan Retaliates Against Chinese Airlines, Hampering Lunar New Year Travel
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DealBook: For His Next Act, Ken Chenault Turns His Focus on Silicon Valley
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Wall Street’s Longest-Serving C.E.O. Says He Isn’t Going Anywhere
from NYT > Business Day http://ift.tt/2nkV7E9
New Jersey Embraces an Idea It Once Rejected: Make Utilities Pay to Emit Carbon
from NYT > Business Day http://ift.tt/2Gv3ftA
Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate Increased Sharply in December due to Hurricanes
Freddie's serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20%.
These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure".
Click on graph for larger image
This increase in the delinquency rate was due to the hurricanes - no worries about the overall market - and we might see a further increase over the next month or so (These are serious delinquencies, so it takes three months late to be counted).
After the hurricane bump, maybe the rate will decline to a cycle bottom in the 0.5% to 0.8% range..
Note: Fannie Mae will report for December soon.
from Calculated Risk http://ift.tt/2nthrdZ
Robert Parry, Investigative Reporter in Washington, Dies at 68
from NYT > Business Day http://ift.tt/2rPKga7
‘It’s Time for Canada to Grow Up’: As Nafta Talks Close, Canadians Take Stock
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Federal Charges Filed in Price ‘Spoofing’ Inquiry on Wall St.
from NYT > Business Day http://ift.tt/2DNJcFf
Tronc Names New Editors at The Daily News and The Los Angeles Times
from NYT > Business Day http://ift.tt/2DKyCPl
Global brew
from BBC News - Business http://ift.tt/2FxKrc1
Samsung success fails to mask reputational anxiety
from International homepage http://ift.tt/2Gz7S6g
Amazon, Berkshire, JPMorgan to shake up healthcare
from International homepage http://ift.tt/2nsAuFh
H&M's Biggest Profit Drop in Six Years Puts CEO Under Pressure
from The Business of Fashion http://ift.tt/2DQ6Gt9
Chinese Investors Pile Into Global Fashion Businesses
from The Business of Fashion http://ift.tt/2rU2Mhp
Walmart in Talks to Buy Minority Stake in India's Flipkart
from The Business of Fashion http://ift.tt/2Eoo6hG
Italy's Safilo Struggled in 2017 After Losing Gucci License
from The Business of Fashion http://ift.tt/2GwAEEt
Bits & Bytes | Nike's Algorithm-Designed Sneaker, Amazon Raises Seller Fees
from The Business of Fashion http://ift.tt/2DYnrFW
SMCP Fourth-Quarter Sales Rise, Confirms Financial Targets
from The Business of Fashion http://ift.tt/2nlPSE9
Mulberry Doubles Down on UK Despite Brexit Woes
from The Business of Fashion http://ift.tt/2FsutzS
Swatch Says Its Low-End Brands Are Sweeping Up Market Share
from The Business of Fashion http://ift.tt/2GrogFI
From Reader’s Digest at 13 to Building NYC and Beyond
Some of the greatest success stories begin with a person finding their passion during their teenage years. And, so it began with Westchester/NYC contractor, Michael Bordes of Jedson Company, LLC.
Michael learned everything he knows from being a laborer at a very young age.
When he was just a teenager, his father would get a monthly subscription of Reader’s Digest – How-to books – on construction plumbing, electrical work, and various home projects. Upon reading the books, he began helping around the house by completing various projects for his parents. By the time he was 17 years old, he was doing all the repairs on his Mother’s home. As a matter of fact, he was so good at doing the repairs that his mother no longer called anyone else for maintenance; she only wanted Michael to do them, and he did.
Before Michael started his own business, as a 14-year old who was anxious to work and make money Michael would try to get any work he could. He worked shining shoes, delivering newspapers and finally after mustering up some courage he rang the doorbell of a local mason. Michael asked the mason for a job!
The man responded by asking him, “What are you going do?” to which Michael replied by saying he would do anything, and that he just wanted to work. He went to work that weekend, leaving the house early in the morning to work a job in Riverdale, NY with a truck full of men. He had no money, no gloves, no lunch, no skill; just a wanted to work. His job for the day was to mix mortar and bring that mortar to the masons.
Noticing how unprepared he was, one of the older men working with Michael gave him a pair of their gloves. At the end of the day, he mixed so much concrete that he had blisters on hands. That day, he drank water from a garden hose throughout the day and ate food scraps from the guys he was working with. This was another lesson learned that made him realize how determined he was to be successful and to make something of himself.
By his senior year in high school, while the majority of the other teens his age was partying or preparing for college, Michael was preparing for the rest of his life. He started a painting, plastering, and ceramic tile business, and by the time he finished his senior year of high school, he had 6 employees working for him. One day, Michael was taking a dip in his backyard pool while his employees were working. His father, a NYC fireman, came home in the afternoon and saw him sitting in the pool before he went in the house. He came up to him and question what he was doing and why he wasn’t working. He was so angry that he restricted Michael from ever swimming in the pool again. This predicament set the tone for Michaels work ethic and the rest of his life, molding him into the businessman he is today. From that day on, aside from further education, he worked 15-16 hours per day minimum, 7 days, every single week.
After his start during adolescence as a laborer, Michael propelled through the many phases of the construction business. In the early 1980s, Michael completed his formal training in construction management at Williamstown University. He then launched his career as a leader and supervisor, first over independent projects such as building a house for a doctor in the prestigious Wykagyl Estates– a 73 home sub-division located in New Rochelle, New York, which has won the New Rochelle’s Mayor’s Award for Excellence, then eventually over his own team of employees and associates as the President of what is now well known as Jedson Company LLC, which began its broad range of operation in 2004.
Michael’s knowledge and expertise, combined with exceptional directorial and organizational skills, continued to present to him bigger and broader opportunities with more and more satisfied, repeat clients. His buildings projects have taken him all over the world, with the majority regionally located along the East Coast.
Whether a residential home or vast commercial space, Michael and his team specialize in completing projects at or under specified time frames, and it is his aggressive approach and exemplary product that have residential and commercial ventures in the multi-million-dollar range. At each job site, Michael maintains the integrity of a fine craftsman while committing to the business of working within his clients’ budgets, schedules, conception issues and engineering specifications. He has remained connected to the ever-changing and progressive techniques and characteristics that revolutionize building and development, assisting him on his journey building Westchester and the East Coast, one project at a time.
Hundreds of Business Opportunities – Visit the Home Business EXPO
The post From Reader’s Digest at 13 to Building NYC and Beyond appeared first on Home Business Magazine.
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Effectively Promote Your Home Business
Setting up a business working from home is something that has become increasingly popular over recent years. Many people have realized that with the technology available in today’s digital era, working from home has become significantly more viable than it once was. This provides a great way to be your own boss and eliminate the hassle of having to travel to work each day in order to make a living.
Of course, even when you are running your own business from home one of the things you need to do is effectively marketing your goods and services. Without proper marketing, you may struggle to get clients and earn money so you need to form a marketing strategy just as you would if you were starting a business operating from business premises.
What can you do to raise awareness about your home business?
One of the great things about running a business from home is that you generally don’t need a huge amount of money upfront to get started. In fact, for some people who set up as freelancers there is often no cost involved because they already have what they need to get started. However, one of the things that you do need to invest time and money in is marketing your business. The good news is that with the help of experts such as Nathan Yeung from Find Your Audience, effective marketing needn’t be costly or time-consuming. This is because specialist digital marketing companies such as this one focus on promoting your goods, brand, and services online, which is one of the most cost-effective marketing methods to use.
Of course, there are other ways in which you can promote your home business. Simply getting on social media and posting details to your friends and family can help, as they can then share your posts so that more and more people get to know about what you are doing. Also, making sure you have a quality website on which you can offer promotions and deals can help to promote your business and increase customer numbers.
It is also worth using offline methods, particularly if you are running a business that offers services to local people. If this is the case, you can engage in marketing activities such as leafleting homes or putting up posters in the local area so that people get to know about the goods and services that you offer. Leaving business cards and leaflets in relevant venues such as libraries or GP surgeries can also help. In order to work out the most appropriate venues to leave marketing materials, you need to think about your target audience and whether they are likely to use the facilities where you are considering leaving your materials.
The good news is that marketing your home business does not have to be an expensive affair so you can use a combination of different online and offline methods in order to boost the effectiveness of your marketing strategy.
Hundreds of Business Opportunities – Visit the Home Business EXPO
The post Effectively Promote Your Home Business appeared first on Home Business Magazine.
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HandsOn Gloves – Hands Down Best Grooming Solution Horses, Dogs and Cats Gravitate Towards
As a kid growing up bathing and grooming horses and dogs, I always wondered why we kept buying the same old curry combs that are hard to hold onto and only marginally work on large flat areas of our animals, bathing mitts that fit no one and never stayed on your hand especially when soapy and wet, along with shedding blades and metal bristle brushes that literally rip hair out including the non-dead hair. My idea was to provide a superior product to replace all of those antiquated grooming tools and devices which performed marginally during grooming, bathing and shedding; products that we had all been stuck with for far too long!
As an adult, I owned a production company that produced movies, TV commercials and documentaries. I got fed up with Hollywood and just wanted to get back to animals and animal people. So I focused on the joining the pet industry and set out to finally make these gloves and change the world of grooming… Four-and-a-half years later, I realized why these gloves had never been on the market, they were really hard to make right. But we did it and I can’t tell you how great it feels to hear people on a daily basis say “Why didn’t I think of that?”, “Where have these gloves been all my life?”
I like to respond to the “Why didn’t I think of that” with I saved you a lot of money. Four and half years of development gets costly. This is the first company I have owned that invents and manufactures products. I have financed all and have been lucky to have had great success out of the gates which has allowed me to bootstrap the growth of HandsOn.
HandsOn Gloves will officially be two years old in February of 2018. We have won awards that range from Best Grooming Product at SuperZoo to Pet Business industry recognition award. We work from home and travel all across the country to Equine and Pet Expos where we sell our gloves and meet new retailers and distributors.
Because of our success, we already have several cheap knockoffs that have hit the market. You know this happens all the time but to experience it for yourself is surreal. I made a video with one of the knockoff gloves that are so sharp it literally shreds an apple. These are not animal people making these cheap knockoffs. They are just in it for a quick buck.
Because of these knockoffs we are racing as fast as we can to be first to market across the board. A few of our latest retails; ACE Hardware and Hollywood Feed just picked us up and we are the top-rated pet product on QVC with only two airings. QVC UK just picked us up on this news as well. I will be back on QVC first part of 2018 and will be traveling to QVC UK for those airings as well. I will be logging the miles.
HandsOn Gloves are carefully designed with hypo-allergenic, bio-friendly components which are clinically proven to be safe for use with humans and animals. These same components are medically approved for manufacturing surgical gloves and tools used for human and animal procedures.
With a flexible, fitted glove on each hand, you get a more thorough, efficient and humane bathing/grooming/shedding experience while naturally bonding with your animal. You will throw all of your old, antiquated tools away!
Having the first ever scrubbing nodules on the palms AND fingers provides a far better deep, thorough clean, from head to toe finally and are the best de-shedders on the market. Also, hair does not stick to the HandsOn Gloves like other grooming aids; just a simple flick of the wrist and the hair instantly releases so you can go right back to caring for your animal.
The textured surface and flexibility of our gloves allow you to better massage and improve circulation while distributing natural oils and promoting a healthier skin and coat.
Legs, faces, ears and tight body contours are no problem for HandsOn Gloves! Our design is superior for delicate grooming as well; like ligament and tendon groves on canons and hocks that until now have always been the hardest to clean.
With the close tactile touch of your hands, examining your animals for cuts, scrapes, welts or bruises is a much easier and more thorough process than using a clunky curry comb, brush or any object between you and your animal; all while providing an unprecedented connection between you and your pets.
The flexibility of the gloves also allows you to handle lead ropes, leashes, shampoo bottles, or anything else you need while grooming or bathing without removing your gloves. Try that with the traditional mitt or curry comb. Plus, your hands and fingernails stay clean!
The Gross Factor
Does your dog, horse or show cow ever show up with manure stains or worse all over them? Does your cat even know what they just rolled in? Ours do and they love it! Having your gloves on while cleaning up these fun times is more bearable for the human and leaves you and your animals much cleaner.
The Animal Factor
Dogs and cats have sensitive skin, horses can be even more sensitive. They can all feel gnats and flies land on them, so what do you think shedding blades, hacksaw blades, wire bristle brushes and all other antiquated grooming devices we have been using for far too long feel like? Run one of those down your arm, leg or scalp. These devices literally rip the hair out and you can see how uncomfortable the animals are in their demeanor. Their heads are up, their bodies are tense, they just want to get away but they put up with it because they are so devoted to us.
The HandsOn® Gloves will not rip hair out. Finally having your fingers in the action allows you to reach all the way through their coat or coats, down to the skin and massage the dead hair, dander and grime out all over your animal’s body, not just in the big, flat areas the other devices are only effective in. Immediately you will see your animals gravitate to the gloves, wanting more. Their heads drop, they lick their lips and their entire bodies relax and are open to this petting, massage session.
The Human Factor
From wounded Vets all the way to people with arthritis, MS, Autism and many other disabilities the gloves are giving back the ability to groom their animals again and for some the first ever opportunity to groom in their lives. Not having to maintain a grip on a grooming device allows these people to do what they love and take care of the animals in their lives in a way that has been impossible to date.
The bond we get from our animals when they are happy and want more loving is immeasurable for all of us. Our HandsOn® team is a community who believe that family and animals come first.
We are animal people committed to developing superior products to share with others who ride, train, ranch, work outdoors, compete at all levels and simply love spending time with their pets.
HandsOn® Gloves are a revolutionary concept that reaches far beyond the traditional curry combs, mitts, scrubbers and shedders on the market today. See for yourself why the All-In-One Shedding/Bathing/Grooming Gloves are the rave and are outperforming all other products across the board.
Hundreds of Business Opportunities – Visit the Home Business EXPO
The post HandsOn Gloves – Hands Down Best Grooming Solution Horses, Dogs and Cats Gravitate Towards appeared first on Home Business Magazine.
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A Quick Guide to Business Etiquette Abroad
Even if you’re based at home, sometimes you might need to travel. It’s tricky enough perfecting your business etiquette in your home country but when you’re attending meetings all over the world, there’s a whole host of cultural differences you need to take into account.
While business etiquette in some countries is quite similar to the U.S., it can be entirely different in others. Below you’ll find an infographic by Buffalo7.co.uk that features business etiquette tips for eleven countries around the world to help you out.
Hundreds of Business Opportunities – Visit the Home Business EXPO
The post A Quick Guide to Business Etiquette Abroad appeared first on Home Business Magazine.
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The Psychology Behind the Perfect Pitch
If you are running a certain type of business from your home, you might be reliant on occasional stretches working for certain clients. Or you might need to cultivate clients who come to you regularly for your goods or services. In either case, you will likely have to make a pitch to these clients to first secure their business. This is a very underrated part of running a home business that many people neglect to learn or perfect before they embark upon their endeavor. The only way your business can thrive is if you have a steady stream of clients, ideally ones who can provide repeat business. That can only occur if you know how to convince them in the first place.
While there is no exact way to conduct a pitch that will guarantee success, and it’s possible even a perfect pitch might not do the trick if circumstances don’t allow it, there are still techniques available to you so that you can make a pitch and sway a client who might be on the edge in terms of their decision. You have to first do the proper homework for your pitch, which includes any paperwork or media you might require for your presentation and research you need to do to know the subject of the pitch inside and out. Once you have that squared away, there are some surefire ways to help you make a pitch that’s persuasive and potent.
If you’re having a hard time convincing customers and business has been a bit slow, perhaps some excellent investments in the newest technology can ease the blow. Use these strategies, however, and you might not need to worry when it comes to that all-important client pitch.
Convince Yourself First
One thing that will sink you immediately in a pitch is if you don’t believe that you can pull it off. A client will sense this lack of confidence in no time and will probably start inching out the door. You have to believe that yours is the best choice for this person before you can possibly convey that to them.
Stay Positive
If you spend the whole time allotted for your pitch running down your possible competition, it’s likely that you’ll seem petty. If anything, speak of them with respect. The majority of your pitch should be about touting what you have to offer in a positive manner. After all, the client is there to hear from you, not your market competitors.
Eager But Not Desperate
Striking the right balance in your pitch is a subtle skill that is nonetheless absolutely crucial. You want to seem enthusiastic about the job but not overly so. By the same token, you don’t want to play it so cool that you come off as uninterested. When in doubt, be sincere about your desire for the job, and the client will appreciate it.
The only way to get really good at making pitches is to practice them beforehand. Being prepared will breed confidence in your ability to think on your feet so that, should the client throw something unexpected at you, you’ll be ready for it.
The post The Psychology Behind the Perfect Pitch appeared first on Home Business Magazine.
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Amazon, Berkshire Hathaway and JP Morgan Chase join forces to tackle employees’ health-care costs
Three giant and influential employers, Amazon, Berkshire Hathaway and JP Morgan Chase, announced Tuesday they were partnering to create an independent company aimed at reining in health-care costs for their U.S. employees.
There were almost no details available about what the company would do or how it would use technology to disrupt and simplify the complicated fabric of American health care. But there's no doubt that the companies, which collectively employ more than 1 million workers worldwide, have a real interest in ratcheting down their spending on health care. Health-care premiums are split between employers and employees and have been growing much faster than wages.
Major health company stock prices tumbled on the news, and the announcement stirred excitement — and questions — about how the three companies could bring their clout to containing costs in the massive employer-sponsored health insurance market, which provides coverage to approximately 160 million Americans.
According to the Kaiser Family Foundation's survey of employer health benefits, health insurance premiums have been rising faster than wages. Between 2012 and 2017, workers' earnings grew by 12 percent, while premiums went up by 19 percent. Between 2007 and 2012, premiums increased twice as fast as workers' earnings.
“The U.S. health-care system is unsustainable in terms of its costs, and the entire debate by political leaders — whether it is Democrats or Republicans — has focused on repairing and replacing Obamacare and the ideological differences,” said John Sculley, who formerly led Apple and Pepsi-Cola and is now chief marketing officer of RxAdvance, a health tech company. “To have three of the most respected CEOs in the world step up and say that their companies are going to work together to focus on the real issues, of how do you make the U.S. health-care system sustainable and a better delivery of service than what we have today... it's very positive.”
The announcement comes amid rampant rumors and anticipation that Amazon could disrupt health care as it has in other industries, particularly in the business of selling prescription drugs.
A person at one of the companies who is familiar with the matter said that this is day one of the joint venture and that specific plans will take shape over time. The person said that the joint venture is not currently expected to be a new health insurance company or a hospital or a pharmaceutical company, but a company that can bring technology tools to bear on making health care more transparent, affordable and simple. The person warned that could change.
“The ballooning costs of healthcare act as a hungry tapeworm on the American economy. Our group does not come to this problem with answers. But we also do not accept it as inevitable,” Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway chairman, said in a statement.
This isn't the first time big employers have tried to tackle health-care costs. Two years ago, 20 major companies including Verizon, American Express, IBM and Shell Oil joined in a Health Transformation Alliance to improve the way health care is purchased for employees. Mercer, a human resources consulting firm, runs several collectives of employers that join forces to purchase prescription drugs, using the extra leverage from having a larger group to wring better prices.
Brian Marcotte, president of the National Business Group on Health, said that one of the problems of employer purchasing coalitions is that the existing health-care market remains very centered on the providers. The new effort, he said, might be able to change that.
“When you think about the collective resources of these three companies, with Amazon's customer obsession and supply-chain savvy, there’s an ability to create a more consumer-focused model,” Marcotte said.
Amazon, with 541,900 employees globally as of October, is known for transforming industries. For months, rumors that it could enter health care have sent shudders through the stock prices of companies whose business models might be threatened. Some see the biggest health-care deal in years -- a merger between CVS and Aetna announced last year — as partially fueled by the threat that Amazon could start selling drugs.
Amazon, already one of the country's largest employers, has been expanding. Last year, the company announced plans to hire 50,000 warehouse workers, staging a one-day blitz dubbed “Amazon jobs day.” The company is also scouting sites for a second North American headquarters, where it plans to employ as many as 50,000 full-time workers, many of them in high-paying office jobs.
Berkshire Hathaway is an Omaha-based conglomerate employing approximately 367,700 employees across a variety of industries including insurance, candy manufacturing, electric utilities, newspapers, fractional jet ownership, ice cream, bricks and furniture. Its longtime chairman, Buffett, said last year at his shareholder meeting that health-care costs were a bigger impediment to American competitiveness than taxes.
“Medical costs — which are borne to a great extent by business — have gone from 5 percent to 17 percent" of the economy since 1960, Buffett said. “Our health costs have gone up incredibly and will go up a lot more.”
The holding company is one of the most valuable in the world, as measured by market capitalization. Berkshire Hathaway earned $24 billion in net profit in 2016 and has more than $100 billion in cash on hand.
JPMorgan Chase is the largest bank in the country with more than $2 trillion in assets and what its chief executive, Jamie Dimon, calls a “fortress” balance sheet. It is unclear what specific expertise the bank will bring to the effort, but the company has a lot at stake in reining in health-care spending. The company last year spent $1.25 billion on medical benefits for 300,000 U.S. employees and family members.
As the head of the powerful Business Roundtable, Dimon emerged as one of the most vocal and visible chief executives pushing for changes to the corporate tax code last year. But he has not spoken as often or as forcefully about the problems in the health-care system, mentioning it only briefly in his annual letter to shareholders last April.
“Our nation’s healthcare costs are essentially twice as much per person vs. most other developed nations,” Dimon said.
The independent company would be jointly led by executives from all three companies, although a chief executive has not yet been announced. It will be free from the need to deliver a profit. Todd Combs, an investment officer of Berkshire Hathaway, Marvelle Sullivan Berchtold, a managing director of JPMorgan Chase and Beth Galetti, a senior vice president at Amazon will manage the company in its early stages.
The vague details about what the company will do to contain health spending raise more questions than they answer, said Benjamin Gomes-Casseres, a professor of strategy at Brandeis University International Business School.
“They are all companies who know well about profit. Their expertise is managing profit in their core operations. If it does what they want to do, which is lower health care costs for employees, that goes to their bottom line — lowering the health-care costs of employees lowers the cost of employment," Gomes-Casseres said.
Whether and how that will benefit employees directly — and whether solutions the company develops will scale and be a model that could be used by other employers — remains uncertain, he said.
“The healthcare system is complex, and we enter into this challenge open-eyed about the degree of difficulty,” Jeffrey P. Bezos, Amazon founder said in a statement. “Hard as it might be, reducing healthcare’s burden on the economy while improving outcomes for employees and their families would be worth the effort. Success is going to require talented experts, a beginner’s mind, and a long-term orientation.”
(Bezos, the founder and chief executive of Amazon, is owner of The Washington Post.)
Abha Bhattarai, Thomas Heath and Renae Merle contributed to this report.
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It ‘feels a bit like 2006’ for stocks and the economy. That should scare us.
The world's elite are partying like it's 2006, and that should probably scare us. Top business and political leaders, who met last week in the quaint ski chalet town of Davos, Switzerland, couldn't stop talking about the booming global economy, record stock markets and President Trump's tax cuts. They toasted the good times with bottles of bourbon that cost several thousand dollars each.
But there is something unnerving about all of this: 2006 was followed by 2008, the worst financial crisis of just about everyone's lifetime. Some of the wisest minds at Davos said it feels eerily similar right now, and that's not comforting.
“The biggest concern I have is no one thinks there's a chance of a recession this year or next,” Carlyle Group co-founder David Rubenstein said. “The conventional wisdom is usually wrong.”
Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff said, “I’ve never seen it so complacent. I mean never.”
Citigroup chief executive Michael Corbat noted, “My biggest concern is the market is ignoring all the risks.”
So what should we be worried about? Several fears were mentioned — publicly and privately — in the midst of lavish Davos celebrations.
North Korea. Blackstone chief executive Steve Schwarzman said he is now worried about politics, not economics, and called North Korea the “main event geopolitically.” He said he thinks it's a mistake for investors to dismiss the possibility of military action.
“No one is listening in the financial markets,” said Schwarzman, who spends a lot of time in Asia. “I think they just think it won't happen.”
South Korea's Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-wha tried to sound optimistic in Davos about relations with North Korea. The two countries are sending a joint team to the Olympics next month for the first time since the 2006 Winter Olympics in Turin, Italy. But even she admitted, “Should something happen, we are absolutely prepared. We have the military capacity.”
[Should you worry about a U.S. war with North Korea?]
China. The Trump administration slapped tariffs on washing machines and solar panels last week, and Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said: “There will be more to come.” A U.S.-China trade war remains a top concern for business leaders, although they admit the rhetoric has been far worse than the actions so far.
Beyond a trade war, there's alarm over how much debt China's companies have taken on in recent years. The government may be flush with cash, but it's unclear how far the government would be willing to go to rescue failing companies.
“I certainly see China as a place where they are at the early stage of this [credit crisis]. They have a lot of characteristics of a financial crisis building up,” Rogoff said.
The Federal Reserve. Several bank chief executives warned the market is not pricing in high interest rates yet. The Federal Reserve could be forced to raise rates faster than expected if the economy really takes off this year, some warn. Or interest rates could rise on their own before the Fed acts if bond investors see more risk of inflation ahead.
“Monetary policy still seems like it’s in the vestige of a recession. There’s little capacity in financial markets to deal with rate hikes,” Barclays chief executive James Staley said. He warned the situation in the markets feels “a bit like 2006.”
The world got a little preview of this scenario Monday when the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield hit the highest level in nearly four years, causing stocks to sell off sharply.
“If interest rates go up even modestly — halfway toward their normal level — you will see a collapse of the stock market,” cautioned Rogoff.
Rising interest rates make it more expensive for companies to repay debt.
“Some companies that borrowed money won’t be able to pay it back as rates rise,” Anne Richards, head of M & G Investments, said.
[Senate confirms Powell for Fed chair, handing Trump’s pick enormous influence over the economy]
Another tech bubble. Over 100 U.S. start-ups are valued at over $1 billion each, according to CBInsights. These include companies like Uber, WeWork and Airbnb that have yet to go public on the stock market. At the moment, their value is determined by a small number of investors willing to pump in a lot of cash upfront.
But Rubenstein of the Carlyle Group warns there could be a big awakening on Wall Street and beyond if some of these “tech unicorns” go public at less than their last private valuation. He predicts that would rile investors and trigger fears of another Dot-com style bust.
“That's going to make people very nervous,” Rubenstein said. “I think we're going to see more of that.”
The bottom 60 to 80 percent go bust. While business and political leaders are touting how 120 countries around the world are growing faster now than a year ago, there's also an admission that faster growth doesn't always help everyone. Middle class wages in the United States and Europe have stagnated in the past two decades, even as the top 10 percent have seen tremendous gains in the wealth, wages and investments.
The latest data showing that Americans are saving at the lowest levels in over a decade adds to concerns that the bottom half of the population is buying more than they have money to pay for, a scenario reminiscent of the mortgage crisis that led to the 2008-09 financial crisis. It might not be mortgages this time, but the trend could be the same.
There are also fears that inequality will fuel more populism. A new crop of leaders like Trump and British Prime Minister Theresa May have adopted more nationalistic positions, a major concern for many business leaders, although they like what they have seen so far with reduced taxes and fewer regulations.
“Even though there's been a recovery, voters in advanced economies have soured on the establishment,” said Maurice Obstfeld, research director of the International Monetary Fund. “A turn to more nationalistic and authoritarian models could result in stalled economic performance.” Obstfeld, like many economists, is concerned about more trade restrictions that could stall global growth.
[Even the 1 percent worry about inequality]
The United States failing to invest in the future. Of course, many of these risks are known — but the fear is that companies and political leaders aren't planning for them adequately. The rebound from the 2008-2009 crisis was largely driven by more government spending and extraordinary moves from central banks around the world. At the moment, many governments remain in debt and central banks, including the Federal Reserve, still have low interest rates, making it difficult to do much right away in troubling times.
“There's not even a Plan A,” lamented Richards of M&G Investments. “We have fewer tools to deal with the next crisis.”
Some say the biggest risk of all for the United States and much of the developed world is that political leaders aren't seizing this period of strong economic growth to invest in infrastructure, education and research.
“From a bigger picture perspective, countries are not taking this moment to invest and make structural reforms,” Corbat of Citigroup said.
No one knows exactly what the next crisis will be. The best defense is to make the necessary tweaks to government programs and spending now, top business leaders and experts say. This is especially true for the United States as it goes up against China in the battle for global supremacy.
“You must have good infrastructure. Our infrastructure has fallen from first or second in the world to the teens. And our education has gone from No. 1 or 2 in the world to 27th or 28th,” Schwarzman said.
There's concern that the United States is too inward-focused on the domestic political rivalries between Republicans and Democrats, and is missing the big picture fight for global supremacy in the technology and biotech era.
Guy Standing, an economics professor at SOAS University of London, pointed out that last year China filed for more patents than the United States, South Korea, European Union and Japan combined.
“There’s a big fight between Chinese and American tech companies for dominance outside their own countries,” Rubenstein said.
The ongoing debates in Washington over a budget for this fiscal year and immigration are pushing the Trump administration's infrastructure plans further down the list of “must do” priorities. On top of that, the Trump administration has pushed for sizable cuts in scientific research funding.
“The overarching risk at the moment is complacency,” Obstfeld of the IMF said. “No matter how tempting it is to sit back and look at the sunshine, policy can and should move now.”
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Relax, Californians: Cheaper weed is coming
The excitement that marijuana devotees felt as California initiated legal, recreational sales this month was tempered by sticker shock from prices as high as $40 per eighth of an ounce. These prices included state and local taxes totaling up to 45 percent. Commentators are warning that high taxes will strengthen the black market, advocates are calling for marijuana tax cuts, and angry customers are posting their receipts online with the taxes circled in red.
Everyone needs to chill.
Nothing raises the price of a drug like making the industry that produces it illegal, and nothing causes those prices to collapse like legalization. However, transitory price spikes in the early days of legalization are common because the supply chain and the regulatory structure are immature and disorganized.
The experience of Colorado, now four years into its recreational marijuana legalization, is illustrative. Supply shortages caused a price spike in the industry’s stumbling first year, driving wholesale marijuana flower to $2,865 per pound. But as the industry matured, prices tumbled 56 percent and have not hit bottom yet. A virtually identical price change pattern occurred in Washington state’s legal market.
Because most states tax marijuana based on a percentage of price, the amount of tax collected per sale drops as marijuana’s price falls. In California, this economic effect will be tempered by the state’s wise decision to make its tax structure include a flat charge on harvested flower that does not vary with price. But the bulk of California state and local taxes are price-linked, and will therefore fall in tandem with the cost of the marijuana plant.
California’s policymakers should resist any effort to cut taxes based on a transitory price spike. Consumers will be appeased without tax cuts as prices tumble in the years ahead. And restoring taxes to a healthy level once prices fall would be politically challenging because a deep-pocketed, mature industry will be ready to oppose it.
Keith Humphreys is a professor of psychiatry at Stanford University and is an affiliated faculty member at Stanford Law School and the Stanford Neurosciences Institute. He served as a drug policy adviser in the Bush and Obama White Houses, and advises many state and national governments on how scientific evidence can inform policies regarding addiction and other psychiatric disorders.
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The future of soda might be coffee
Coffee drinkers tend to savor their brew in the morning and switch to soda or water as the day goes on. But the world’s largest beverage companies want to turn that morning cup of joe into an all-day staple — and an heir to the sodas that consumers have soured on.
On Monday coffee giant Keurig Green Mountain acquired Dr Pepper Snapple, the maker of 7UP, Hawaiian Punch and other popular drinks. The reason? They're trying to reach consumers “throughout the day,” according to a company news release.
Analysts say the new firm, to be named Keurig Dr Pepper, is far from alone in its quest to reinvent America’s favorite breakfast drink. Over the past two years, many of the country's largest coffee chains and beverage-makers have pushed aggressively into new product lines intended for consumption in the afternoon and evening. Several of those firms, such as Panera and Stumptown, are already owned by Keurig’s corporate parent, JAB Holdings.
[Why the worst time to drink coffee is actually in the morning]
“They seem to really want to branch out beyond breakfast,” said Zoe Leavitt, a senior retail analyst at CB Insights, a market research company.
At first glance, Dr Pepper Snapple seems an odd target for a growing coffee empire. The maker of more than 40 sodas, fruit juices and energy drinks has nonetheless been a perpetual third runner-up, behind Coca-Cola and Pepsi.
Meanwhile, JAB Holdings — a German firm owned by a family of secretive billionaires — has spent the past six years snapping up not only companies that make coffee but also restaurant chains that sell large volumes of it. In addition to Keurig Green Mountain, maker of K-Cups and coffee machines, JAB owns or invests heavily in Peet’s, Panera, Caribou, Au Bon Pain, Krispy Kreme, Stumptown Roasters, Intelligentsia and Jacobs Douwe Egberts, the world’s largest coffee-only company.
But as incongruous as Dr Pepper may seem in a lineup of trendy, third-wave coffee roasters, analysts say the acquisition fits into the push to transform your morning cup of java into a worthy soda alternative. Since mid-2015, when Starbucks rolled cold brew out to all of its U.S. stores, beverage companies have been jousting to invent a coffee drink that clearly telegraphs as “afternoon refreshment.”
The reasons are twofold, said James Watson, a Rabobank senior beverage analyst.
For starters, young people are less likely to make their own coffee at home before heading out, which has shifted back the hour of the average coffee break. In 2010, for instance, the National Coffee Association found that only 1 in 10 coffee-drinkers had a cup at lunch. That figure had risen to 1 in 4 by 2016.
On top of that, consumers of all ages have begun turning away from soft drinks — creating both a crisis for soda-makers and an opportunity for virtually everyone else in the caffeinated beverage industry.
“We’re seeing these coffee drinks now that actually resemble soda,” Watson said. “It’s a way to get into the segment, because coffee is natural and healthy and tracks with consumer trends.”
Among the firms getting in on all-day coffee, Watson said, are some of the world’s largest soda brands: Pepsi makes Starbucks’ ready-to-drink coffees, and Coca-Cola last year launched versions of Dunkin’ Donuts and McDonald’s coffees.
The action isn’t limited to bottled drinks, either: Analysts see the rise of cold brew as the cafe’s play for afternoon customers. In the future, Watson predicts, some chains will also offer sparkling and flavored coffees as lunchtime pairings, right next to their soda fountains.
It’s still far too early, of course, to guess what direction the new Keurig Dr Pepper will follow. In a release, Keurig’s chief executive, Bob Gamgort, said that the company would focus on “address[ing] today’s consumer needs.”
But a recent launch from elsewhere in the JAB empire may offer a glimmer of what’s to come. Last February, Stumptown Coffee Roasters released a “Sparkling Cold Brew” in aluminum cans, which it promoted as a summer “road soda.”
Read more:
Coca-Cola Zero Sugar, Coke’s hot new soda, isn’t actually that new at all
Why Pepsi's decision to ditch aspartame isn't good for soda — or science
How to fix the American diet, according to the man who popularized the term 'junk food'
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Former New York Fed president Bill McDonough, in memoriam
William “Bill” McDonough was my friend. We met in January 1993 when I took up my new position leading international affairs at the Treasury Department, and Bill was preparing to become president of the New York Federal Reserve Bank. For the next eight years we probably spoke twice a week and much more frequently in times of crisis. I learned more from Bill than I was ever able to express to him.
In some ways, Bill was from central casting’s traditional idea of a central banker, and he acted the part. I never saw him in public and in doubt. In other ways, he was a very different from the typical central banker.
- Most prefer to read a data table than a face. Not Bill. He knew how important relationships were when the chips were down and invested in them every day.
- Most see the world in terms of global generalities. Bill cared about national particularities from native languages, to local rules, to culture. It made him a uniquely trusted figure, especially in Latin America but also around the world.
- Most are stern and serious. I always picture Bill with a smile on his face as he explained to me what you had to grab to get hearts and minds to follow. He took what he did plenty seriously but he never took himself too seriously.
- Most are pragmatists. Bill was too, but he was also a moralist. He knew that he lived a lucky life and he never forgot his good fortune. And he never let his friends forget that they too were, for the most part, highly fortunate and had obligations to those whose luck had been less good.
History alters perspectives. Some of Bill’s most important policy thrusts look more clearly right today than they did at the time. Bill was on to what we delicately call agency issues in finance before it was fashionable, as he warned about compensation practices. He was prescient on issues of systemic risk and capital adequacy. And his handling of Long-Term Capital Management, a hedge fund, presaged contemporary discussions of orderly workouts in important respects.
Gerry Corrigan had a worthy successor and Tim Geithner had a worthy predecessor in William McDonough.
I treasured Bill’s humor, wisdom and loyalty in equal measure. In those years of the Mexican financial crisis, the Asian financial crisis, a struggling Japan, and an ultimately defaulting Russia, Bill’s earthy, forceful warmth was a wonderful counterpart to the more abstract and analytical Greenspan in the conduct of financial diplomacy. Millions who never knew his name lived better more secure lives because of what he did.
May he rest in peace.
Lawrence Summers is a professor at and past president of Harvard University. He was treasury secretary from 1999 to 2001 and an economic adviser to President Barack Obama from 2009 through 2010.
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Things fall apart
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Robo news
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Real House Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in November
It has been more than ten years since the bubble peak. In the Case-Shiller release this morning, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 6.4% above the previous bubble peak. However, in real terms, the National index (SA) is still about 11.6% below the bubble peak (and historically there has been an upward slope to real house prices).
The year-over-year increase in prices is mostly moving sideways now around 6%. In November, the index was up 6.2% YoY.
Usually people graph nominal house prices, but it is also important to look at prices in real terms (inflation adjusted). Case-Shiller and others report nominal house prices. As an example, if a house price was $200,000 in January 2000, the price would be close to $282,000 today adjusted for inflation (41%). That is why the second graph below is important - this shows "real" prices (adjusted for inflation).
Nominal House Prices
The first graph shows the monthly Case-Shiller National Index SA, and the monthly Case-Shiller Composite 20 SA (through August) in nominal terms as reported.
In nominal terms, the Case-Shiller National index (SA) is at a new peak, and the Case-Shiller Composite 20 Index (SA) is back to February 2006 levels.
Real House Prices
The second graph shows the same two indexes in real terms (adjusted for inflation using CPI less Shelter). Note: some people use other inflation measures to adjust for real prices.
In real terms, the National index is back to September 2004 levels, and the Composite 20 index is back to April 2004.
In real terms, house prices are back to 2004 levels.
Price-to-Rent
In October 2004, Fed economist John Krainer and researcher Chishen Wei wrote a Fed letter on price to rent ratios: House Prices and Fundamental Value. Kainer and Wei presented a price-to-rent ratio using the OFHEO house price index and the Owners' Equivalent Rent (OER) from the BLS.
Here is a similar graph using the Case-Shiller National and Composite 20 House Price Indexes.
This graph shows the price to rent ratio (January 1998 = 1.0).
On a price-to-rent basis, the Case-Shiller National index is back to December 2003 levels, and the Composite 20 index is back to October 2003 levels.
In real terms, prices are back to mid 2004 levels, and the price-to-rent ratio is back to 2003 - and the price-to-rent ratio has been increasing slowly.
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HVS: Q4 2017 Homeownership and Vacancy Rates
This report is frequently mentioned by analysts and the media to track household formation, the homeownership rate, and the homeowner and rental vacancy rates. However, there are serious questions about the accuracy of this survey.
This survey might show the trend, but I wouldn't rely on the absolute numbers. The Census Bureau is investigating the differences between the HVS, ACS and decennial Census, and analysts probably shouldn't use the HVS to estimate the excess vacant supply or household formation, or rely on the homeownership rate, except as a guide to the trend.
Click on graph for larger image.
The Red dots are the decennial Census homeownership rates for April 1st 1990, 2000 and 2010. The HVS homeownership rate increased to 64.2% in Q4, from 63.9% in Q3.
I'd put more weight on the decennial Census numbers - and given changing demographics, the homeownership rate has probably bottomed.
The HVS homeowner vacancy was unchanged at 1.6% in Q4.
Once again - this probably shows the general trend, but I wouldn't rely on the absolute numbers.
The rental vacancy rate decreased to 6.9% in Q4.
The quarterly HVS is the most timely survey on households, but there are many questions about the accuracy of this survey.
Overall this suggests that vacancies have declined significantly, and my guess is the homeownership rate has bottomed - and that the rental vacancy rate has bottomed for this cycle.
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Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 6.2% year-over-year in November
This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index.
Note: Case-Shiller reports Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA), I use the SA data for the graphs.
From S&P: Cities in the West: Seattle, Las Vegas and San Francisco Lead Gains in S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 6.2% annual gain in November, up from 6.1% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 6.1%, up from 5.9% the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 6.4% year-over-year gain, up from 6.3% the previous month.Click on graph for larger image.
Seattle, Las Vegas, and San Francisco reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities. In November, Seattle led the way with a 12.7% year-over-year price increase, followed by Las Vegas with a 10.6% increase, and San Francisco with a 9.1% increase. Six cities reported greater price increases in the year ending November 2017 versus the year ending October 2017.
...
Before seasonal adjustment, the National Index posted a month-over-month gain of 0.2% in November. The 10-City and 20-City Composites reported increases of 0.3% and 0.2%, respectively. After seasonal adjustment, the National Index recorded a 0.7% month-over-month increase in November. The 10-City and 20-City Composites posted 0.8% and 0.7% month-over-month increases, respectively. Ten of 20 cities reported increases in November before seasonal adjustment, while all 20 cities reported increases after seasonal adjustment.
“Home prices continue to rise three times faster than the rate of inflation,” says David M. Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Index year-over-year increases have been 5% or more for 16 months; the 20-City index has climbed at this pace for 28 months. Given slow population and income growth since the financial crisis, demand is not the primary factor in rising home prices. Construction costs, as measured by National Income and Product Accounts, recovered after the financial crisis, increasing between 2% and 4% annually, but do not explain all of the home price gains. From 2010 to the latest month of data, the construction of single family homes slowed, with single family home starts averaging 632,000 annually. This is less than the annual rate during the 2007-2009 financial crisis of 698,000, which is far less than the long-term average of slightly more than one million annually from 1959 to 2000 and 1.5 million during the 2001-2006 boom years. Without more supply, home prices may continue to substantially outpace inflation.”
“Looking across the 20 cities covered here, those that enjoyed the fastest price increases before the 2007-2009 financial crisis are again among those cities experiencing the largest gains. San Diego, Los Angeles, Miami and Las Vegas, price leaders in the boom before the crisis, are again seeing strong price gains. They have been joined by three cities where prices were above average during the financial crisis and continue to rise rapidly – Dallas, Portland OR, and Seattle.”
emphasis added
The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).
The Composite 10 index is off 3.6% from the peak, and up 0.8% in November (SA).
The Composite 20 index is off slightly from the peak, and up 0.8% (SA) in November.
The National index is 6.4% above the bubble peak (SA), and up 0.7% (SA) in November. The National index is up 43.8% from the post-bubble low set in December 2011 (SA).
The second graph shows the Year over year change in all three indices.
The Composite 10 SA is up 6.1% compared to November 2016. The Composite 20 SA is up 6.4% year-over-year.
The National index SA is up 6.2% year-over-year.
Note: According to the data, prices increased in all 20 of 20 cities month-over-month seasonally adjusted.
I'll have more later.
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Tuesday, 30 January 2018
Dimon signs on for another five years at JPMorgan
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State of the Union: what to look for from Trump
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Blackstone in talks to buy stake in Thomson Reuters unit
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Andrew McCabe steps down as FBI deputy director
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African Union accuses China of hacking headquarters
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US regulator fines European banks for ‘spoofing’
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Washington says Nafta talks are moving too slowly
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Asian shares sink after pullback on Wall Street
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Trump to herald economic progress in State of the Union
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Dutch health care giant Philips announces net profit rise
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Polimoda Lecture Three: 'Branding the Subconscious'
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A risky corner of the ETF market has boomed this year as YOLO traders chase the rally
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REUTERS/Lucas Jackson John Hussman warns of poor S&P 500 returns over the next 12 years. High valuations suggest potential underp...