Q2 GDP Forecasts: Probably Around 30% Annual Rate Decline

Important: GDP is reported at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). So a 30% Q2 decline is around 7% decline from Q1 (SA).

From Merrill Lynch:

We expect a 30% qoq saar plunge in 2Q. [SAAR May 8 estimate]
emphasis added

From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report

The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at -31.2% for 2020:Q2. [May 8 estimate]

And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2020 is -34.9 percent on May 8, down from -17.6 percent on May 5. [May 8 estimate]

from Calculated Risk https://ift.tt/2zjweSe