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- Gautam Adani says China will feel "increasingly isolated," and sees a harder economic bounce back.
- Companies and countries are turning away from globalization in favour of nationalism.
- However, the global turbulence has quicked opportunities for the rise of India, plugs Adani.
India's Gautam Adani, the richest person in Asia, says China has an increasingly isolated outlook on the world stage.
"I anticipate that China – that was seen as the foremost champion of globalization – will feel increasingly isolated," Adani said in his keynote speech at the Forbes Global CEO Conference in Singapore on Tuesday. "Increasing nationalism, supply chain risk mitigation, and technology restrictions will have an impact."
The founder of the Adani Group conglomerate has a net worth of $139.8 billion as of September 27, and is the world's third-wealthiest person after Elon Musk and LVMH CEO Bernard Arnault, according to Forbes.
Following the COVID-19 pandemic and amid the war in Ukraine, companies and countries around the world are looking to protect their supply chains and reduce their dependence on others. As the factory for the world, China has benefited from globalization, but its tide may be turning — and its bounce back will be challenging, Adani said.
China is facing backlash for lending more money to emerging countries than they can afford — making them beholden to Beijing, as well as concerns over its real-estate debt crisis spiralling into a broader global financial crisis.
"China's Belt and Road initiative was expected to be a demonstration of its global ambitions, but the resistance now makes it challenging. And its housing and credit risks are drawing comparisons with what happened to the Japanese economy during the 'lost decade' of the 1990s," said Adani.
Meanwhile, global turbulence has "accelerated opportunities" for India, Adani said.
India has a burgeoning middle class and a young population that will drive its GDP to $30 trillion by 2050, up from $3 trillion currently, making it "bright spot" in the political and market perspective, Adani said. His projection echoes that of DK Srivastava, chief policy advisor at Ernst & Young India.
It would be in Adani's benefit to present India as a country of opportunity and potential: the Adani Group is a huge enterprise, with interests from energy to transportation and real estate. It's worth almost $234 billion as of September 29 — and that's just from seven publicly traded companies in the conglomerate.
"What I see ahead are the new principles of global engagement based on greater self-reliance, lowered supply chain risks, and stronger nationalism," Adani said.
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