Thursday 27 January 2022

Global stocks tumble after a hawkish Fed prepares for a March rate hike to battle inflation

Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell appears for testimony before the Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee
Federal Reserve chairman, Jerome Powell.
  • Global stocks slid on Thursday, reacting to the Fed setting the stage for an interest rate hike in March.
  • A hawkish Fed and Chairman Jerome Powell's greater concern over inflation has sent investors into a tailspin.
  • The market "has sensed that the ground is shifting under our feet," an investment analyst said.
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Global stocks fell on Thursday after the Federal Reserve signaled it would start hiking interest rates at its March meeting, spooking investors that tighter policy will lower liquidity in financial markets, which had led to exuberant valuations.

Futures on the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq each dipped 0.3% as of 4:10 a.m. ET, suggesting a lower start for US indices later in the day. 

In its policy update Wednesday, the US central bank said it would "soon" be appropriate to raise interest rates and reiterated plans to end bond-buying in March. This, analysts said, is a sign the economy is ready for a change.

"Change can be scary. And this market has sensed that the ground is shifting under our feet," Callie Cox, an investment analyst at eToro, said. "However, the market has braced for big and fast rate hikes, and it looks like the Fed's approach will be more flexible instead of dramatic."

After the Fed's statement, yields were little changed and the Nasdaq rose around 1% in Wednesday's session. But during Jerome Powell's hawkish press conference, the narrative around greater concerns of inflation and tighter rate policy undid gains immediately. This unfolded in a major negative turnaround in equities and rates. 

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note was last unchanged from Wednesday's 1.84%, close to their highest in two years.

 "The Fed's announcement was mostly expected, however it still seemed to shock the market and cause its early rally to wither," Anthony Denier, CEO of trading platform Webull, said. "If this is the reaction to expected news, it doesn't look good if the Fed were to change its outlook to something more negative, or increase the number of rate hikes."

During the conference, Powell warned inflation remains above the Fed's goal of 2% and that there's a risk "high inflation is more persistent than expected."

"There was a tone in Powell's voice that was new, one of greater concern on inflation and he made a point that this time was different from prior periods of tightening," said Chris Weston, Pepperstone's head of research.

Powell didn't make any timing commitments about the start of the balance sheet run-off, or the expected pace. But he admitted that a rate-hike at every meeting this year was not off the table.

On the earnings front, Tesla stock briefly dropped 6% in after-hours trading despite beating analyst expectations. Investors fear production of the company's electric vehicles could be constrained by continued supply chain issues.

Elsewhere in Europe, equities were either down or trading sideways after the Fed meeting.

The pan-European Euro Stoxx 600 fell 0.7% and Frankfurt's DAX lost 0.8%. London's FTSE 100 was about flat.

Asian equities plunged to their lowest in nearly 15 months, with Chinese blue-chips falling to their lowest since September 30, 2020, according to Refinitiv data.

The Shanghai Composite lost 1.7% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 2.4%. Tokyo's Nikkei declined 3%.

Brent crude oil briefly rose to trade near $90 a barrel for the first time since 2014, largely due to the deteriorating Russia-Ukraine crisis, before retreating somewhat.

"In addition to hopes of a return to more normal levels of mobility this year following the pandemic, growing geopolitical tensions have also supported prices lately, not least given Russia is one of the world's biggest exporters of oil," Deutsche Bank analysts said.

Brent crude futures were last down 0.3% at $88.43 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate futures fell 0.3% to $87.08 a barrel.

Read More: One of Wall Street's most bullish analysts shares 13 of his favorite stocks to own heading into the 'biggest tech earnings season in a decade'

Read the original article on Business Insider


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