Wednesday, 7 August 2024

It's not just real estate and spending — another pillar of China's economy looks like it's heading for trouble, too

Port in Lianyungang, China
China's exports grew 7% in July, below the expected 9.7%, while import growth reached 8.6%, surpassing expectations.
  • China's July exports grew 7%, slower than expected, while import growth outperformed expectations.
  • China is facing other economic woes, including weaker consumer spending and a real-estate slump.
  • Businesses eyeing a Trump presidency could explain a surge in US imports, wrote Goldman analysts.

In addition to battling a slowing economy, China is now feeling the sting of slowing global demand for its goods.

The country's July exports grew 7% from the same period last year, falling short of an expected 9.7% increase and its slowest expansion pace in three months, Reuters reported. The figures for July also fell below China's explosive 8.6% export growth in June, which was the fastest in 15 months.

Meanwhile, China's imports in July surged 7.2% year-over-year, significantly higher than the expected 3.2%. Imports from the US increased 24% from last year, CNBC reported.

The slowdown in China's exports comes amid sluggish domestic demand and slower-than-expected economic growth, despite consumers' higher disposable incomes.

In the first quarter of 2024, China's economy showed signs of slowing when it grew by 4.7% year-over-year, falling short of the 5.1% expected. The slowdown was driven by weaker consumer demand and declining retail sales from a more frugal spending attitude, BI reported in July.

China's growth numbers were also dragged down by its real-estate crisis, which saw home sale prices fall by 31% across cities in March.

While China's net exports reached a record $99 billion in June, Nomura economists forecast that "China's economy will be unable to sustain a strong recovery through depending only on exports," they wrote in a note.

The decline in export numbers from June to July might signal slowing external demand for Chinese goods, Xing Zhaopeng, senior China strategist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group, told Bloomberg. This exacerbates China's growing list of economic concerns, such as geopolitical headwinds and a declining birth rate.

The surges in June's exports and July's US imports could also be attributed to "possible rush shipments ahead of potential tariff increases if former US President Trump were to be re-elected," Goldman Sachs wrote in a Tuesday note.

The spike in July's import numbers is a bright spot for China, as it could suggest signs of revival for China's faltering domestic demand.

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A financially free real estate investor who scaled up to 36 single-family homes and eventually sold them to 'save my sanity' explains her strategy shifts

whitney elkins-hutten
Real estate investor Whitney Elkins-Hutten and her family.
  • Whitney Elkins-Hutten transitioned from live-in flips to long-term rentals for better cash flow.
  • She built a 36-property portfolio that generated enough cash flow for her to quit her job.
  • Eventually, she shifted her strategy again: from rentals to partnerships on bigger deals.

Whitney Elkins-Hutten bought her first property, a single-family home that was "a little rundown" and needed some elbow grease, in Fort Collins in 2002.

"I paid my friends in beer, sushi, and pizza and rehabbed the property," the Colorado-based investor told Business Insider. "We took it from it being 1960s, green shag carpet, psychedelic daisies painted all over the walls to a really beautiful property."

About a year later Elkins-Hutten sold the property, walked away with "a $52,000 check in my pocket," she said, and started thinking about her next deal.

Nearly two decades later, she invests in real estate full time and considers herself financially free. She's also a financial educator and the author of "Money for Tomorrow."

Financial independence, which she describes as having "enough passive income coming in to cover your current lifestyle," is distinct from financial freedom. She considers the latter a step up, and defines it as having "enough passive income coming in to cover the lifestyle that you want."

Her investment strategy has evolved over the years. After her initial flip, she and her husband did a few "live-in flips," a strategy that involves living in the property while rehabbing it. It can help you save on living expenses and avoid capital gains tax on the sale of the property (if you live in it for at least two years), thanks to an IRS rule known as the Section 121 Exclusion.

While live-in flipping helped her build equity, it didn't produce cash flow.

"After doing a couple of live-in flips, I was like, how are people retiring off of this? I don't quite understand because you're just getting buckets of money periodically," she said.

That realization prompted her first strategy shift: from live-in flips to long-term rentals. It was an idea planted by one of Elkins-Hutten's friends, who suggested she keep one of her investment properties and find a long-term tenant, rather than sell it for profit.

It was a good reminder that there are multiple ways to invest in real estate.

whitney elkins-hutten
Elkins-Hutten used real estate investing as a vehicle to achieve financial freedom and gain back time.

"Here's where I see a lot of investors get in trouble: They borrow somebody else's investing plan and don't really think through if that plan actually works for their goals," said Elkins-Hutten, who admitted to making the same mistake and mirroring the plan of a friend who had a different timeline. After thinking about her goal — to have enough income coming in to leave her day job — Elkins-Hutten realized it required cash flow.

She and her husband started buying single-family homes in 2016 in Colorado, where they lived, and eventually in Indianapolis and Kansas City, where they found they could get even better cash flow.

They scaled to 36 single-family homes primarily using the BRRRR (buy, rehab, rent, refinance, and repeat) model. The long-term rental strategy ultimately helped her achieve financial independence and allowed her to leave her tech job in 2019, but it was labor intensive.

"The 36 single-family rentals are a lot of management, even if you have a property manager," she said, adding that she probably bought too many. "I argue I probably shouldn't have gotten the 36. I should have recognized earlier that I wanted my time back, my attention back, because I have a daughter at home that I really wanted to spend time with."

The question became, "How do I scale a real estate portfolio that's going to serve me — not me serve it?" she said. That led to her next major strategy shift: long-term rentals to partnerships on bigger deals, in which she could put up her money and take on a more passive role.

Her first partnership was on a 52-unit apartment building, which she calls "the transition investment," as she still owned her single-family homes.

"I was like, wait a second, I've got 52 units over here, the cash flow is just about like my 36 single-family rental portfolio and far less overhead," she said. "I thought, I need to go bigger to go faster — and to save my sanity. That's when I got into partnership."

At that point in her investing career, she had the capital required to go in on big deals.

"I had so much money coming back at me, which is a great problem to have, so I needed a place to put it," said Elkins-Hutten, who eventually sold all of her long-term rentals. Plus, "I wanted to diversify my portfolio outside of my own investing business and in other markets and other asset strategies. I wanted to have exposure to debt. I wanted to have exposure to self-storage. I wanted to have exposure to mobile home parks."

As of 2024, she said she is a partner in $800 million of real estate, including over 6,500 residential units and 2,200 self-storage units across 11 states. Elkins-Hutten walked Business Insider through a substantial part of her passive portfolio via screenshare.

While she's financially free and technically doesn't have to work another day in her life, she chooses to: "I left my job to be a full-time investor. I work harder than ever right now, but I don't have to work. I get to work. It's a very different mentality."

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My family moved from South Carolina to Spain. My kids stay up late and are free to walk alone in the city.

Boy touching a fish in the fish market - stock photo
The author's kids are allowed to go to the supermarket by themselves and use her credit card.
  • We moved with my husband, and our two kids moved from South Carolina to Spain two years ago.
  • Kids here stay up until almost midnight in the summer, and now my boys do as well.
  • They can walk to the supermarket by their own and I often give them my credit card to buy stuff.

Since our American family moved from South Carolina to Madrid, I've been slowly adapting to all things Spain.

We are currently in our second summer living in Spain and one thing I've noticed for sure is our daily schedule shifting.

My kids stay up late

In Spain, it is very common for children of all ages, from babies to school-aged children, to be out with their parents very late. With the sun setting later and Spanish summers meaning long dinners outside and slow meals with friends, it is very typical for children to stay up after 11:00 p.m. on summer nights.

Our 11- and 9-year-old sons have adapted to a summer sleep schedule in Spain that is typically 11 p.m. — 11:00 a.m. In the US, our children were car-dependent to see their friends, and so get-togethers ended much earlier. Occasionally, we would get together with friends on a summer weekend, and it would turn into a late night, but in Spain, that feeling lasts every night.

My kids go everywhere by themselves

Our boys have loved having the freedom to walk themselves to the store in Madrid compared to in the US. In our neighborhood, they can walk or take their electric scooters to bakeries, supermarkets, soccer fields, pharmacies, restaurants, and more.

It is very common to see school-aged children under 10 out with friends without their parents in these small neighborhoods, helping to foster a sense of independence at a young age.

Mom posing for photo with kids
The author and her two kids moved from South Carolina to Madrid two years ago.

Their school friends in Madrid like Star Wars, so our boys have started to like it, too. The other day, our youngest child asked us if he could walk to the local bazaar store (equivalent to a Dollar Store) to look for lightsabers. We, without hesitation, said yes, gave him our credit card and sent him on his way.

I think back to the years of raising our boys in the United States and remember the feeling of needing to get into the car to take them anywhere and needing to be in person to pay. Whether it's with my card or euros in his pocket, it's awesome watching our children be able to practice this real-life skill of commerce at such a young age.

We let them drink soda

Admittedly, we weren't big soda people when living in the US. We would say the occasional yes to our kids to indulge in a sweet drink at a birthday party or for a special occasion, but in Spain, soda is life when you're a child.

I was at first so shocked to see the soda culture in Spain with caffeinated drinks being served to children, especially late in the evenings during dinner. Dinnertime in Spain is considerably later than in the US. On a normal summer evening, we are beginning to decide what we'd like to eat for dinner around 7:30 p.m. By the time we decide, we walk with our shopping bag down to the local supermarket and purchase the day's fresh ingredients, never fully stocking the fridge. Dinner often begins closer to 9 p.m., even with young kids in the house.

American mom Meg wouldn't believe American-mom-living-in-Spain Meg that she would allow her young children to drink caffeinated soda at dinner that late in the evening.

The biggest life lesson that I have learned as an American mom living in Spain this past year is to embrace different cultures. Oftentimes, American moms (myself included) can be set in their ways: set in their baby's sleep schedule, having dinner ready at 6 p.m. every night and spending our days doing errands by car. While there is beauty in those routines, there is also a big world out there of cultural differences that are equally as great.

It has been so refreshing to me as a mom to embrace a slower-paced lifestyle and to let myself adapt to a new way of doing everyday things in Spain. I see our boys delight in learning and embracing a new culture and I hope that this trait stays with them forever, wherever they may live. We aren't close to ready to give up our late night Spain summers and opportunities for independence for our young kids, so bring out the tapas and pour the wine: there's more summer to be had for us in Spain.

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The 2 biggest mistakes people make when cutting down on ultra-processed foods, according to dietitian who wrote a book on the topic

Nichola Ludlam-Raine making a smoothie.
Dietitian Nichola Ludlam-Raine advocates eating 80% whole foods.
  • Ultra-processed foods are linked to poor health but make up 60% of the average American diet.
  • Dietitian Nichola Ludlam-Raine said one mistake people make when cutting down is not seeing UPFs on a spectrum.
  • It's also a mistake to completely avoid UPFs , she said.

Over the past few years, ultra-processed foods have been the subject of myriad new stories, Instagram posts, and dinner party conversations.

But all the chatter about this hot topic may have left you feeling confused about how you should actually change your diet (if at all).

With manufacturers using clever tricks to get us to consume their products, around 60% of the calories the average American eats are thought to be from UPFs.

While research is ongoing to better understand how UPFs — which contain ingredients you wouldn't typically find in a home kitchen — affect us, they have been linked with an array of health problems including type 2 diabetes, depression, and cardiovascular disease.

But should we be avoiding UPFs at all costs? And if so, how?

These are the questions that dietitian Nichola Ludlam-Raine seeks to answer in her new book, "How Not to Eat Ultra-Processed," which also contains recipes to help people consume fewer UPFs.

Ludlam-Raine told Business Insider that she believes it's a real issue that so many of us rely heavily on convenience foods and UPFs, which make up too large a proportion of people's diets.

However, others — sometimes referred to as the "worried well" — are unnecessarily stressed about including tiny amounts of UPFs in otherwise unprocessed diets, Ludlam-Raine said.

This is why Ludlam-Raine wants to help people learn about how to reduce their UPF intake while still enjoying their lives.

"Although the aim of the game is to cut down on UPFs as much as possible, it's also about soothing any anxiety that having some UPFs is going to be harmful for health," she said.

Ludlam-Raine shared two common mistakes people make when trying to consume fewer UPFs.

Not seeing UPFs on a spectrum

Not all UPFs are created equal and there's a difference between healthy UPFs and less healthy ones, Ludlam-Raine said. She breaks foods down into four groups:

  • unprocessed
  • minimally processed
  • UPF and more nutritious
  • UPF and less nutritious

Ludlam-Raine encourages people to think of UPFs on a spectrum, meaning that baked beans — a staple tinned food in the UK where she is based — shouldn't be seen in the same light as a packet of candy or a chocolate bar.

Rather than demonizing every food containing an ingredient you wouldn't find in your kitchen, look at what the main componets are, she said. For example, in a tin of baked beans that is likely beans and tomatoes.

"Baked beans are full of fiber, vitamin C, some plant-based protein," Ludlam-Raine said. "However, it is unfortunate that modified starch makes it a UPF."

Avocado on toast with baked beans on turquoise green plate - stock photo
Baked beans are a staple food in the UK. Some versions are ultra-processed.

That's very different from a chocolate bar where the main two ingredients might be sugar and glucose syrup.

She also highlighted that it's important to remember foods that are "natural" or "unprocessed" aren't necessarily healthy — sugar and butter, for example, may not be UPFs but should still be eaten in moderation. There's a lot to consider when choosing food, Ludlam-Raine said.

Trying to avoid UPFs completely

It's well established that maintaining strong social relationships and connections is important for health and longevity. Quitting UPFs can make socializing incredibly difficult for some, she said.

"I would say it's actually impossible to have a completely UPF-free diet and go about your everyday life and socialize," she said.

Not enjoying a slice of birthday cake with family and friends once in a while could be more damaging than having it, because social interactions are a big part of health, Ludlam-Raine said.

For this reason, she advises people to strive for an 80% whole food diet and then not worry about eating 20% UPF.

"If you're cooking mainly from whole foods, you don't have to worry about having the odd Mars bar," Ludlam-Raine said.

To try and reach that 80% whole food mark, check the ingredients on products you buying and consider swapping brands, she said.

If you have a daily diet cola habit, for example, Ludlam-Raine recommended saving it for a weekend treat or cutting down to every other day. Try sparkling water with some fruit juice as a non-UPF alternative, she said.

For her part, Ludlam-Raine drinks fruit squash (a popular product in the UK, similar to cordial) which, though UPF, helps her stay hydrated and drink enough water, she said.

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Tuesday, 6 August 2024

I resigned from Tesla after nearly 8 years. I lost confidence in Elon Musk's vision for the company.

Elon Musk in front of a Tesla
One Tesla worker says it was obvious Elon Musk took his focus from the carmaker when he bought Twitter, but it's since returned — sometimes erratically.
  • Several workers have resigned from their roles at Tesla over the past year.
  • One former Tesla employee, who worked there for nearly 8 years, explained why they chose to resign.
  • The worker said a lack of faith in Elon Musk's leadership contributed to the decision.

This as-told-to essay is based on a conversation with a former Tesla employee who resigned from the company earlier this year and spoke anonymously to protect their privacy. Business Insider has verified their identity and employment. The following has been edited for length and clarity.

My spouse and I were big space fans for a long time. I was really inspired by the Falcon 9 booster landing in 2015 and I knew I wanted to be a part of that optimism for the future. The following year Tesla and SolarCity came to my city and I started in sales at SolarCity.

Initially, I wasn't very good at it, but I made it known very early on that I was passionate about what the company was doing and what Elon Musk stood for. When Tesla acquired SolarCity in 2016, I began working in sales for Tesla Energy. Since then, I've held nine different titles all around Tesla and have worked at five different locations in a variety of departments, including sales, service, and operations over the course of nearly eight years.

I was very mission-focused, and I think that's why they kept me around. I was clear about why I wanted to be there and that I believed in the future of electrification.

Tesla is always changing and you have to be able to adapt. For example, I was on the sales team when Musk announced he only wanted to do online sales. There was a lot of uncertainty at that point for the team.

You have to be ready to move fast when you work for a startup and I liked that. Once I learn how something works, I teach someone else to do it, delegate it, and then I'm on to the next thing. I was very upfront about being willing to relocate in order to grow and my spouse and I started optimizing our lifestyle around that. We even signed a month-to-month lease.

Tesla's breakneck pace can be exciting, but it can also get exhausting

In 2022, I worked on a project that was part of a direct request from Musk. I spent weeks preparing for a presentation that was going to be in front of him, but it didn't end up happening after he turned his attention to his Twitter purchase. It was disappointing, but also kind of a relief. Most of my friends told me it could have gone badly, but I was also ready to show off my work.

There's always been this pendulum swing with Musk's attention. When he bought Twitter, he was a little less focused on Tesla and everyone generally became a little bit more relaxed. We were still working hard, but we could focus our energies where we thought they were best used. When Musk's around, he can get hyper-fixated on something, and we all have to turn our attention to that, too, which is great for fixing the problem, but not always good for balancing the rest of our responsibilities.

When he bought Twitter it was radio silence for a bit from Musk. He was pretty hands-off for some of 2023, but in May 2023 he sent out an email saying he needed to approve all hiring. It was clear he'd turned more of his attention back to Tesla.

Musk laid off more than 10% of our workforce in April of this year. He has said you need to cut to the point where you have to add people back, which might work a bit better in raw engineering terms but when you're looking at the morale of an organization, it doesn't work.

The layoffs hit me hard. A few months before, I was told my position had been eliminated due to "redundancy," so they offered me a different role at a different location. It was a three-hour round-trip commute. I was told it would be temporary when I started doing it in December.

We were trying to hire someone who could replace me so I could move to a different location, but then the layoffs happened and Tesla went into a hiring freeze.

Tesla superchargers
Tesla has lots its focus on what customers want, one employee said who recently resigned.

At that point, I had very low confidence in the direction that Musk was taking the company

I'd been starting to feel like his personal mission for Tesla and the stated company mission were not the same thing anymore. It didn't seem like he wanted to grow an automotive business anymore. It seemed like he wanted to use it as an incubator for new technologies, like AI, and his other tech companies.

Early in Tesla's history, it was known for its innovation. It made sense to come out with products that were unexpected. It was a different way of imagining things and creating a better product without 100 years of design bloat, but I think it's gotten to the point where it feels forced. For example, the Model S and Model X steering yoke. It seemed like the point wasn't to design something better. It was just a gimmick.

The company has also ignored traditional automaker strategies in a way that, I think, has been detrimental to the brand. The 2021 Model S and Model X refreshes were designed to make them look the same as the old models. They didn't want to cater to an industry that has these refreshes. The statement was: "No, you're going to like the classic design forever."

I don't know when the tipping point was, but it turned from this fresh and innovative strategy to Tesla trying to convince customers this is what they actually want and I don't know that it reflects consumer interests anymore.

My decision to leave Tesla came down to a lot of different factors that had been slowly creeping up on me for a couple of years. If I'd had a better commute and a job that I liked, I might have been able to shrug it all off and tell myself: "No matter what crazy stuff is Musk doing now, I'm just going to put my head down and keep working." But with the layoffs, it all came to a head at once: I wasn't happy with what I was doing anymore and I didn't feel like I had faith in Musk's plans for the company.

Choosing to leave was really difficult. I put my whole life into that job — I moved three times and worked at five locations, supporting 35 sites.

It felt like a divorce, but I think I made the right choice. I've moved on now and my spouse and I have decided to start our own company.

Tesla did not respond to a request for comment from Business Insider.

Do you work for Tesla or have a tip? Reach out to the reporter via a non-work email and device at gkay@businessinsider.com or 248-894-6012.

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Amazon is raising its hiring bar for some tech jobs

amazon seattle
Amazon's office in downtown Seattle.
  • Amazon is reinstating "bar raisers" for entry-level software engineer interviews.
  • The move is aimed at increasing the quality of employees that Amazon hires.
  • It's also part of a broader change in the company's strategy, to be more cautious and cost-conscious.

Amazon is raising its hiring bar.

The company is bringing back "bar raisers" to the interview process for entry-level software engineer jobs, internally dubbed "SDE-1 (L4)" positions, according to an internal memo obtained by Business Insider.

Bar raisers have long been a peculiar part of Amazon's hiring process. These people, typically from another team, serve as "objective third-party advisers" during job interviews and ask more holistic questions related to Amazon's famed leadership principles to evaluate candidates.

But Amazon removed bar raiser interviews for entry-level engineering jobs and some non-engineering roles in recent years, in part due to the pandemic-fueled hiring boom, BI previously reported. That enabled Amazon to hire more aggressively, but also led to a drop in the quality of talent in some parts of the company.

"By reintroducing Bar Raisers into the AUTA interview process, the assessment of the Dive Deep and Earns Trust Leadership Principles (LPs) can be better incorporated," the memo, from July, explained. "With this change, AUTA is addressing a direct business need and aims to enhance the quality of SDE-1 candidates hired."

AUTA is short for Amazon University Talent Acquisition, the team in charge of hiring early career employees, mostly just out of school, according to the memo. "Dive Deep" and "Earns Trust" are part of Amazon's 16 leadership principles.

The reversal reflects Amazon's increased restraint following the swift end of its pandemic mega-growth period. Amazon's belt-tightening tactics have included record layoffs, ruthless cost cuts, and hiring freezes.

The move also suggests that Amazon will continue to take a more measured approach to hiring, after growing at a dizzying pace since 2019 to nearly double its headcount to more than 1.5 million total employees. Last week, Amazon reported earnings that largely fell below expectations and warned consumer spending could worsen. This week, fears of a slowing US economy are rattling investors.

"We're constantly reviewing and improving our hiring practices to ensure we're hiring the best talent to innovate for our customers," Amazon spokesperson Margaret Callahan wrote in an email to BI.

'Learn & Be Curious'

The internal Amazon memo said the revised interview approach has been fully rolled out in the Americas region. Other markets, like Asia and Europe, are expected to have the new model in place by mid-August.

By resuming the bar raiser program, Amazon is adding an additional 60-minute step to the interview process for these jobs, the memo said.

Under a step called "Learn & Be Curious," the memo instructs bar raisers to focus their questions on the "Dive Deep" and "Earns Trust" leadership principles during these interviews because Amazon's internal research found that they correlate with job performance for SDE-1 roles.

Amazon has struggled to keep bar raisers engaged in recent years. Although the job is considered a badge of honor internally, it's a non-paying role that adds more responsibility to existing jobs. There have been complaints of some bar raisers being overworked and disengaged, BI previously reported.

To ensure bar raisers' level of engagement, Amazon will be closely monitoring and identifying potential capacity bottlenecks, the internal memo said. Amazon will also share any interview process changes with the Bar Raiser Core Community and request their opinions on those changes.

By the end of the third quarter, Amazon plans to provide regular reporting on bar raiser engagements, the memo added.

Do you work at Amazon? Got a tip?

Contact the reporter, Eugene Kim, via the encrypted-messaging apps Signal or Telegram (+1-650-942-3061) or email (ekim@businessinsider.com). Reach out using a nonwork device. Check out Business Insider's source guide for other tips on sharing information securely.

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Monday, 5 August 2024

Investors are fleeing Big Tech. Bank of America says to take advantage of these 2 stock trades instead.

A cellphone open to a trading app. There are $100 bills floating around the illustration.
  • Retail and institutional investors alike are fans of buying and holding Big Tech stocks.
  • However, investors should consider rebalancing their holdings as markets broaden and tech sells off.
  • Bank of America recommends increasing exposure to cyclicals and dividend stocks.

Buying and holding Big Tech stocks has led to great performance in recent years, but this might not be the case going forward.

A stock sell-off led by the Nasdaq last week spread across the globe and deepened early on Monday. Down 3%, the tech-dominant index led the S&P 500 and Dow in premarket losses amid concerns that Fed rate cuts will come too late and that the AI-fueled rally made valuations too high.

Because Big Tech stocks make up a large part of the market and individual portfolios, changes in just a few of these companies can have a big impact on indexes. As a result, buy-and-hold investors are probably seeing more red than they'd like in their portfolios right now.

Bank of America expects to see increasing rotation out of the tech sector for the rest of the year. Savita Subramanian, the head of US equity and quantitative strategy, provides two trades for passive investors to take advantage of a rebalancing market.

Big Tech overexposure

If you hold a lot of Big Tech stocks in your portfolio, you're not alone. The biggest institutional money managers are also fans of the buy-and-hold strategy. In a July 31 note, Bank of America shared that at least 70% of the large-cap long-only funds it tracks hold Magnificent Seven stocks.

There's definitely reason to be bullish on tech overall, especially as AI spurs growth, but overexposure to Big Tech isn't without its drawbacks. Subramanian points out that the Mag Seven declined more than 10% on average in the last two weeks of January. That's a cumulative $2 trillion dollar drop in market capitalization.

According to Subramanian, there's more room for Big Tech to fall, especially if investors don't see AI monetization cases soon. Hyperscalers like Microsoft, Meta, and Google are allocating billions on AI capital expenditures this year, and if AI revenues don't pick up in the coming quarter, buy-and-hold investors will be seeing more red in their portfolios.

Bank of America expects the rest of the market to start picking up momentum as well. "Earnings of the 'Other 493' are expected to accelerate throughout the rest of the year while Mag 7 earnings decelerate, suggesting the rotation may have further to go," she wrote.

2 ways to diversify

While it's tempting to leave your portfolio alone, buy-and-hold investors can benefit from some rebalancing as the market shifts away from Big Tech.

Subramanian identifies cyclicals as an area of investment. Buy-and-hold investors are extremely underexposed to them, specifically to energy, materials, and banks.

Long-only funds shed cyclical holdings during the first half of 2024, decreasing allocations in energy and materials by 11% and 5%, respectively. Fund holdings in banks are at the lowest levels in recent years, with exposure over one standard deviation below the long-term average since 2008.

With inflation slowing and rates expected to start coming down, Bank of America believes that the Fed will be able to engineer a soft landing for the economy, creating a favorable environment for cyclicals to do well going forward. Hard-landing risks appear to have risen since the note was published on Wednesday, however, with the famous Sahm Rule recession indicator being triggered on Friday by a rising unemployment rate. Still, it remains to be seen how much further the labor market will loosen.

Buy-and-hold investors should also consider swapping out the cash in their portfolios for dividend stocks, Subramanian said. Currently, there's over $6 trillion in US money market funds. And households are increasingly sitting on piles of cash: $18 trillion of it, to be exact. That's up $5 trillion from the pre-Covid days.

As the Fed begins to cut rates, investors will earn less on their money if they leave their accounts alone. Dividend stocks provide quarterly income and can be a good way to enhance returns as yields on cash decline. They're also relatively cheap right now — the forward price-to-earnings ratio on high-dividend stocks is at its 11th cheapest percentile relative to the S&P 500.

Investors interested in making the switch from a buy-and-hold to a more active strategy can do so by investing in funds such as the Vanguard Financials ETF (VFH), the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE), and the SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 High Dividend ETF (SPYD).

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I'm the CEO of Cedar's Foods. If my life were a song, it'd be Frank Sinatra's 'My Way' — here's a day in my life.

Charles Hanna, the CEO of Cedar's Foods, shares a day in his life. Courtesy of Cedar's Foods This as-told-to essay is based on a con...