Few prisoners claiming abuses have access to a jury trial. The Supreme Court could soon change that.

The US Supreme Court is slated to hear a case Tuesday that could expand prisoners' access to jury trials.

Alyssa Schukar/for Business Insider

• The Supreme Court is set to hear a case Tuesday that could expand prisoner access to jury trials.
• The case relates to the PLRA, a 1996 law requiring prisoners to pursue a prison grievance before filing suit.
• The petitioner says expanding access to juries would leave courts "inundated" with meritless suits.

When US lawmakers introduced legislation nearly 30 years ago to curb the "frivolous" prisoner lawsuits they said were inundating the courts, they insisted it wouldn't affect prisoners with legitimate claims.

That law, the 1996 Prison Litigation Reform Act, created something of a catch-22. Under the PLRA, any lawsuit, however serious the claim, can be dismissed if the prisoner didn't first exhaust their prison's internal grievance process. Yet prisoners say grievances can be stymied by the very guards they've accused of wrongdoing.

In these cases, a prisoner's claim of abuse or retaliation can be intertwined with their failure to properly file grievances.

The Supreme Court is expected to hear arguments Tuesday about whether prisoners have a right to argue these complex cases before a jury.

The case the justices will hear centers on a Michigan prisoner named Kyle Brandon Richards, who said in a legal complaint he filed in April 2020 that Thomas Perttu, a resident unit manager at the Baraga Correctional Facility, had "engaged in a pattern of prolific and repetitive sexual abuse." Richards said that when he tried to file written grievances reporting the abuse, Perttu retaliated against him by destroying them and threatening to kill him.

The Michigan Department of Corrections declined to comment on the claims against Perttu and did not confirm whether he still worked at the prison, citing the pending litigation. Michigan's attorney general's office, which represents Perttu, did not respond to queries.

A judge dismissed Richards' lawsuit over his failure to exhaust Baraga's grievance process under the PLRA. An appeals court reversed course. A panel of 6th Circuit judges found that because Richards' First Amendment retaliation claims against Perttu were intertwined with a factual dispute over whether he'd properly exhausted the grievance process, those contested facts should be decided by a jury, not a judge, under the Seventh Amendment right to a jury trial.

Perttu appealed, and the question of whether prisoners in these situations have a right to a jury trial will now be heard by the Supreme Court.

"Holding that the Seventh Amendment requires a jury decision on this question would be significant," said Michael Mushlin, an emeritus professor at Pace University's law school, who wrote an amicus brief with law professors in support of Richards' claims. "It's not earth-shattering, but it's significant in trying to soften the horrible blow of the PLRA."

A contested law

Though the PLRA was pitched as a common-sense reform to curb trivial lawsuits, Business Insider found, in a six-part series published in December, that the law has largely stymied prisoner lawsuits claiming serious harm — including retaliatory beatings, stabbings, sexual assaults, and egregious forms of medical neglect.

Exhausting an internal grievance system before filing suit, as the PLRA requires, is often a convoluted ordeal.

In one case BI uncovered that was dismissed by a judge over the failure to exhaust, a New Jersey prisoner said he'd been beaten by prison guards while he was in restraints and then missed a grievance deadline while in solitary confinement. In another, a Virginia prisoner who said he was sexually abused by a prison psychologist filed a grievance that was not considered specific enough. In Indiana, a prisoner who said he attempted suicide after a guard told him to "go for it" lost in court because his grievance didn't contain the guard's full name.

In Richards' case, he argued that he was unable to meet the PLRA's exhaustion requirement because Perttu had destroyed his grievance forms — the same set of circumstances at the heart of his retaliation claim.

"The disputed facts," said Lori Alvino McGill, a lecturer at the University of Virginia's law school who is representing Richards before the Supreme Court, "will be critical to both the retaliation claim and to whether administrative remedies were available."

The PLRA has faced intense criticism since it was first enacted. Members of Congress have tried to reform the law and failed. And the Richards case is not the first time the Supreme Court has been asked to review aspects of the law.

Margo Schlanger, a law professor at the University of Michigan who is a leading researcher on the PLRA's effects and who helped guide BI on its research methodology, said that if the justices decide in favor of Richards, it would mean, at the very least, "a few more cases" filed by prisoners would make it before juries.

BI found that such outcomes are unusual. Of nearly 1,500 Eighth Amendment prisoner cases BI analyzed for its series — including every appeals court case that reached a decision over a five-year period — only 2% were decided by a jury.

Plaintiffs who got a jury trial fared far better than those who did not: Less than 1% won their cases before a judge, while 18% of plaintiffs whose cases reached a jury prevailed.

ACLU, Cato, counties weigh in

Richards' case has attracted support from the ACLU and the Cato Institute, the libertarian think tank, which both filed amicus briefs on Richards' behalf. Groups including the National Sheriffs' Association and the International Municipal Lawyers Association filed briefs supporting Perttu.

The Cato Institute argued in its brief that the constitutional right to a civil jury trial is "fundamental to American liberty."

"For Richards, and those similarly situated to him," Cato's Clark Neily III wrote, "a jury trial at the exhaustion stage is essential to ensure that their claims are fairly heard."

According to Jennifer Wedekind, a senior staff attorney at the ACLU's National Prison Project who was an author of the ACLU's brief, credibility determinations often come down to an officer's word against a prisoner's. "Those are precisely the type of determinations that juries are supposed to be making," she told BI.

The Supreme Court could decide broadly that every incarcerated plaintiff is entitled to a jury trial when there are disputes over exhaustion. Or the justices could rule more narrowly, as Mushlin expects — granting access to a jury trial only to plaintiffs in cases in which the factual discrepancies over exhaustion are inseparable from the substantive issues of the case.

Perttu's lawyers argued that if the justices uphold the circuit court's decision, federal courts will be "inundated" with "meritless lawsuits that they must allow to go to a jury" and effectively "erase nearly 30 years of progress in reducing frivolous lawsuits."

A brief filed by the International Municipal Lawyers Association and the National Association of Counties echoed those points, arguing that the 6th Circuit ruling "undermines the PLRA's goal of saving costs by reducing the volume of frivolous inmate suits."

BI found that claims of a tide of frivolous lawsuits were largely a myth. While a few dozen of the claims in BI's sample appeared to center on minor matters, the vast majority clearly involved claims of substantive harm. The effects of the law have been dramatic: Of the roughly 1,400 federal prisoner cases that BI examined filed by people who were imprisoned — rather than by former prisoners or their families — 27% failed because of the PLRA's requirements. Among cases decided in district courts, 35% failed because of the law.

Research by Schlanger found that within five years of the PLRA's passage prisoner suits dropped by 43% even as the prison population grew. The filing rate, she later found, never rebounded.

In BI's sample of prisoner suits, plaintiffs prevailed less than 1% of the time — indicating a near evisceration of protections for this country's 1.2 million prisoners, thanks to the combined impact of the PLRA and a set of legal standards established by the Supreme Court at the height of the war on drugs.

"Recent reports from Business Insider show that many prisoners have been denied their basic legal rights," Rep. Jan Schakowsky of Illinois said in response to BI's series. "Any abuse that happens inside our prisons must be allowed to reach the light of day."

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Russia's real strongman: Meet the oligarch who's pushing Putin to destroy Ukraine

A Gen Xer made $280k secretly working 2 remote jobs in the medical field. He said he gave up on 'climbing the corporate ladder.'

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• A Gen Xer made $280,000 last year secretly working two full-time remote jobs in the medical field.
• He said "overemployment" helped him boost his income after he failed to land promotions.
• Juggling two jobs can be stressful, but he's learned how to manage his workload.

After spending years struggling to rise in the ranks at work, Daniel found another way to boost his earnings: secretly working a second full-time job.

In 2020, Daniel worked remotely as a training and customer support specialist in the radiation oncology field, a medical specialty involved in cancer treatments. When his company offered employees a three-month sabbatical with reduced pay, Daniel seized the opportunity. He spent those three months working in a part-time, remote role for another employer in the industry.

Daniel said this experience made him realize he might be able to juggle a remote side gig in addition to his full-time role after his sabbatical. When his part-time gig came to an end, he found another. By 2021, this part-time gig had converted to a full-time role, and for the first time, Daniel was working two remote full-time jobs simultaneously.

Last year, Daniel earned more than $280,000 across his two jobs, each of which paid more than $125,000 annually. He said the additional income has helped him grow his retirement savings, complete home renovations, and, in the coming months, will go toward buying a second investment property.

"I feel like I'm expediting my years of income-earning potential," said Daniel, whose identity was verified by Business Insider but asked to use a pseudonym due to fear of professional repercussions. "I'm doubling up, so I don't have to wait a couple of years to save up for something."

Daniel, who's in his late 40s and based in Texas, is among the Americans who have secretly worked multiple remote jobs recently to increase their incomes. Over the past two years, BI has interviewed more than two dozen "overemployed" workers who've used their earnings to pay off debt and travel the world. To be sure, having multiple jobs without the approval of one's employer could have professional repercussions and lead to burnout. But many job jugglers have told BI that the financial perks generally outweigh the downsides and risks.

Struggling to climb the "corporate ladder" led to overemployment

In the early 2000s, Daniel was working as a research technician for a biotech company. He believes he hit a pay ceiling at that employer and that he would have needed additional education to advance his career. After exploring his options, he decided to enroll in a one-year program focused on radiation oncology, which he said opened doors for higher-paying opportunities.

After graduating in 2005, Daniel worked at a new employer for about a year until he landed his landed his current remote role, which involves training hospital staff on using certain medical products and providing customer support over the phone. The job came with a lot of downtime, but it presented a familiar hurdle: He said he struggled to land promotions and increase his pay during the next 14 years. Then, he started his sabbatical.

Daniel feels frustrated that he spent so many years trying to get recognition from his employers. However, he said the demands of job juggling have forced him to accept that he can't be a "star employee" at either of his jobs. In recent years, he's shifted his focus to maximizing his earnings instead of climbing the corporate ladder.

"This is something I know how to do and I'm pretty good at it," he said of overemployment. "But climbing the corporate ladder, I don't think I was very good at it. I wanted to be much better than I really was."

Daniel said he typically works 40 to 50 hours a week across the two jobs. Even though there's the occasional 60-hour week, having no commute saves him a lot of time. He added that spreading out his work over the week has helped juggling two jobs feel more manageable. For example, he might work a few hours on the weekends or in the evenings and spend some time during the day running errands.

"I can set my own schedule, so it doesn't feel so overbearing," he said.

Daniel said each of his bosses knows he has a "side gig" but doesn't know it's full-time. While some bosses think that secretly juggling multiple jobs is unethical, James said he feels no guilt.

"The companies I work for can lay me off for no reason at any time, so there's no sort of sense of loyalty," he said.

Going forward, Daniel said he hopes to generate rental income from the second investment property he's close to purchasing. If things go well, he said he plans to eventually give up one of his jobs and rely on this passive income stream to supplement his earnings.

Juggling multiple jobs can be exhausting at times. Daniel said his wife is concerned that his work arrangement is too stressful, but she trusts him to decide whether it's feasible. In recent years, Daniel said he's learned new skills to manage this stress. For example, he said reminding himself that he can "only do one thing at a time" helps him when his workload piles up.

"I've gone through several waves where the workload is either too much, or it's impossible, or there doesn't seem like there's enough time, but it always works out as long as I don't lose it," he said.

Have you worked multiple remote jobs at the same time or discovered an employee/coworker was doing so? Reach out to this reporter at jzinkula@businessinsider.com.

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He was once Elon Musk's biggest believer. Now he's doubling down on why Tesla stock will feel serious pain in 2025.

Emma McIntyre / Staff/Getty Images

• Ross Gerber was an early investor in Tesla, buying in before the stock boomed.
• But he's gotten increasingly outspoken about issues he sees with Elon Musk and Tesla, and has sold shares.
• Gerber outlined for BI four reasons why he expects Tesla shares to fall as much as 50% in 2025.

Tesla shareholder Ross Gerber is no stranger to bearish takes on the company, at least lately.

In the middle of last year he revealed that he'd sold about $60 million of Tesla shares on concerns its vehicles were fading in popularity. Then, after Donald Trump's election victory, Gerber said in early December that Tesla would see minimal positive impact, if any, from Elon Musk's association with the president.

The warnings now seem prescient. After an initial post-election surge, Tesla shares are down 16% so far in 2025, and sit roughly 4% lower since Gerber's December comments.

It's a trend Gerber sees continuing amid a collection of familiar issues, including a lofty valuation, worries about the company's Full Self-Driving capabilities, and the knock-on effects of Musk's unpredictable behavior.

In new interview with Business Insider, Gerber took his bearishness even further, outlining why he sees Tesla vulnerable to a drawdown of as much as 50%.

To his credit, Gerber — who is the president and CEO of Gerber Kawasaki Wealth & Investment Management — has had no issue putting his money where his mouth is. He reduced his firm's Tesla stake by 31% in 2024, regulatory filings show, leaving him with 262,000 Tesla shares worth $106 million at the end of last year.

Detailed below are four reasons informing Gerber's expectation for a rough year for Tesla:

1. Full Self-Driving 'doesn't work'

Gerber sees a disaster for Tesla stock this year because Musk's June target of launching an autonomous taxi network in Austin, Texas is too ambitious.

"All of this stuff is going to come to roost this year because he put this deadline on full self driving working in a couple months. It almost seems impossible for that to happen," Gerber told BI.

According to Gerber, the core issue is that Tesla's autonomous driving platform doesn't use the LIDAR sensors that other driverless systems, like Alphabet's Waymo, rely on. Instead, it uses cameras.

"We're well behind in robotaxi and autonomy, there's no question now," Gerber said, adding that he thinks Waymo's approach is "a safer system."

"I'm in the camp now that you need LIDAR to have a safe enough system for Full Self-Driving," he said. "They're going to run into a wall, where they can't get better unless they change the hardware."

2. Elon Musk is distracted

From running several companies, including Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI, to posting prolifically on X, to spearheading government efficiency efforts at DOGE, to being the father to 11 kids, it's safe to say there might not be enough time in the day for Musk.

Gerber thinks that's a problem for Tesla shareholders, especially considering Musk's sole focus in recent months appears to have been AI.

"His 100% focus is on AI, and that's really a detriment to Tesla more than it's a plus for xAI and all the other businesses because he doesn't work at Tesla anymore," Gerber said.

"If he were putting all of his time into full self-driving, I'd feel a lot more confident about Tesla."

3. Vehicle sales are slowing

While investor hype around Tesla focuses on its autonomous and robotic ambitions, selling cars remains its core business, and that's starting to slow.

Last year marked Tesla's first annual decline in EV sales. After forecasting 20%-30% growth in 2025, management has since said on its latest earnings call that it expects a "return to growth."

For Gerber, increasing competition from BYD, the largest EV maker in the world based out of China, is a real threat to Tesla's EV business outside the US.

"Xi has made it very clear that he wants Chinese tech and EV companies to succeed, not Tesla," Gerber said. "BYD is such a good company, everybody in the emerging markets are buying BYDs."

Tesla sold almost 1 million vehicles in China last year.

The other threat to Tesla is Musk's close association with President Donald Trump.

"What this does is it creates this anger. I've never seen this anger towards Tesla, but it's not toward Tesla as the company, it's because of Elon, this is the only way people can take it out," Gerber explained.

Singer Sheryl Crow posted a video to Instagram this week waving goodbye to her Tesla, which she sold in protest.

"There comes a time when you have to decide who you are willing to align with. So long Tesla," Crow wrote on Instagram.

The trend could be picking up steam outside the US, with the Financial Times reporting that Tesla's January vehicle sales plunged 63% in France, 60% in Germany, and 38% in Norway.

"We've got to sell cars, and people just don't want them anymore," Gerber said.

4. Tesla trades at a premium valuation

Tesla has always traded at a premium valuation relative to other automakers and its mega-cap tech peers, but if Tesla's slowdown in vehicle sales continues, that premium could diminish considerably.

At a $1.1 trillion market capitalization, Tesla is nearly 5x larger than Toyota despite delivering just 20% of Toyota's profits last year, according to data from YCharts.

Its forward price-to-earnings ratio of 118x is more than triple that of the next most expensive "Magnificent 7" stock, Nvidia, and is above its five-year average of 84x.

"The issue to me is, I've got $100 million in Tesla stock at 125x earnings and it's not even close to any PE, to any normal Mag 7 stock," Gerber said. "So Tesla's vulnerability is it could drop by 50% if things don't work out for it this year. So we sell Tesla stock. We still have tons of it and we sell it because we think it's pretty overvalued."

Some major Wall Street firms may agree with Gerber. JPMorgan was bearish on Tesla's latest earnings release. Despite an initial burst of enthusiasm from investors, the bank said it is sticking with a $135 price target for Tesla stock, representing potential downside of 60% from current levels.

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Moscow says there will be a 'price to pay' for the Western companies that left Russia after it invaded Ukraine

Three years into the war in Ukraine, nearly 475 foreign companies have left the Russian market completely.

Alexander Sayganov/SOPA Images/LightRocket/Getty Images

• Western companies may be considering a return to Russia post-war, but Moscow doesn't appear too keen.
• Foreign firms left Russia due to sanctions over its Ukraine invasion, impacting the economy.
• Russian officials say the country is prioritizing domestic companies over returning Western firms.

Some of the Western companies that left Russia over its war in Ukraine may be tempted to head back when the war ends — but Moscow wants them to know it's is not in a rush to receive them.

"We are not waiting for anyone with open arms. There will be a price to pay for past decisions," Anton Alikhanov, the Russian industry and trade minister, told reporters on Thursday, according to TASS state news agency.

Three years into the war in Ukraine, nearly 475 foreign companies have left the Russian market completely, according to the Leave Russia database from the Kyiv School of Economics. Those that have made a complete exit include McDonald's, Starbucks, Ikea, British energy giant Shell, and Japanese tire maker Bridgestone.

Alikhanov said Russia is prioritizing domestic brands instead of waiting for foreign brands to return.

His comments come as US President Donald Trump has signaled a willingness for the US to reconcile with Moscow, igniting discussions about the return of some departed companies.

"It is a reasonable assumption that some companies will seek to return to Russia following a comprehensive settlement to end the war," Andrew Staples, the principal of GeoPol Asia, a business strategy and geopolitical risk consultancy, told Business Insider.

Denis Manturov, the first deputy prime minister of Russia, echoed the country's emphasis on domestic companies and those from the Eurasian Economic Union — a group of five post-Soviet states— per TASS.

"We will clear for our market the ones of interest for ourselves," Manturov said on Thursday.

Foreign firms are probably not rushing back to Russia either

International companies may not race back, wrote Edward Verona, a former business executive who was based in Moscow in the 1990s and 2000s.

"Taking another chance on Russia might seem appealing to some. After all, memories can be short in the business world," Verona, who is now a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council's Eurasia Center, wrote on Thursday.

Good deals may not be enough to lure back Western companies still concerned about the safety of non-Russian staff and the rule of law, he said.

"US firms may feel less restrained to return than European firms given the geographical and political distance involved," Staples said.

Even if sanctions were to be lifted, he said it's hard to imagine countries closer to the conflict — such as Poland, the Baltic states, Scandinavia, Germany, France, and the UK — get involved again.

Staples said consumer goods companies and firms operating in less sensitive sectors are more likely to return to the market than those in strategic sectors like energy, tech, banking, finance, aerospace, and defense.

Companies seeking to safeguard their reputations and who left Russia for moral reasons are also unlikely to return in the foreseeable future, wrote Verona, who is a former head of the US-Russia Business Council.

Russia's wartime economy

Even if companies are enticed by the prospect of a return to the Russian market, the fundamental question is whether it's worth the effort.

"Perhaps most importantly, from a business perspective, the outlook for the economy is not great," Staples said, citing challenges including high inflation and a tight monetary policy.

The Russian economy has largely held out from three years of Western sanctions — at least on paper — as its leaders focused on defense manufacturing, ramping up military spending to account for 8% of its GDP in 2025.

The ruble slumped to a two-year low of 113.72 against the dollar in early January as Europe's progressive decoupling with Russian energy opened the way for another tranche of US sanctions. That latest measure, one of the Biden administration's final moves, blocks Russia's third-largest bank from handling many energy-related payments.

Still, a new wave of optimism has since buoyed the ruble to a six-month high, at 88.67 against the dollar on Thursday.

The ruble has strengthened about 14% since Trump took office on January 20.

Meanwhile, some of Russia's firms — even those outside the military — are doing well. Yandex, an internet company that operates one of Russia's largest search engines, posted record annual revenues of $11.22 billion on Thursday, surging 37% year-on-year.

Yandex's net income slumped 78% from 2023, to $129 million, as interest and operating expenses increased. Russia hiked interest rates to 21% last year to try to cool surging inflation.

Yandex split from its Dutch-domiciled ownership in July after a two-year negotiation that ended with local buyers acquiring its Russia-based assets.

But other sectors, such as its agriculture, automotive, and commodity industries, have showed signs of struggle.

In particular, Europe has found new sources of energy to supplant Russia, once its largest energy provider. Energy accounts for about one-fifth of Russia's GDP.

Meanwhile, demand from China is sluggish amid its economic downturn, and Trump is pressing other countries to buy more US energy — more competition for Russia's exports.

"Given this economic assessment and continued political and reputational risk of being in Russia, is it an attractive place for foreign firms? I wouldn't anticipate a 'rush to get back to Russia,'" said Staples.

Business risks in Putin's Russia

Even if the numbers work out, there are political risks associated with operating in Russia where President Vladimir Putin — who is in office for a fifth term — has an ironclad rule.

Eurasia Center's Verona wrote that Russia is far from the same Western-partnered country it was under Boris Yeltsin's 1991 to 1999 leadership.

"It is not even the Russia of the early 2000s, before Vladimir Putin had fully consolidated his grip on power and completed the transition from fledgling democracy to authoritarian regime," Verona added. "After twenty-five years of Putin's rule, the Kremlin now dominates all aspects of Russian life, including the country's business climate."

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The stock market's overconfidence is setting it up for a dangerous fall

Getty Images; Alyssa Powell/BI

The stock market has been able to shake off quite a lot of worrying news lately.

The first two months of 2025 have been solid for investors. Major market indexes have recently hit or approached all-time highs: The S&P 500 hit a record on January 23, while the Nasdaq and Dow Jones averages have been hovering around their peaks. The market's resilience comes at a time when there is growing uncertainty about the future of the economy. Your daily coffee is still expensive, the housing market is frozen over, political tensions are boiling over, and AI dystopia seems to be all market experts are talking about.

There's a pretty big reason stocks have held up despite these worrying headlines: Companies, big-time investors, and average Americans are enthusiastic about the future.

For the past few years the US was stuck in a vibecession, as my friend Kyla Scanlon calls it, in which people worry about the economy despite evidence that it's in great shape. That's all flipped. As warning signs for stocks and the economy piled up, consumer confidence rose to a three-year high at the end of 2024, driven by optimism about the future. And if that's not stunning enough, check this chart out.

In July 2022, three months before the S&P 500 kicked off its ongoing rally, stock market pessimism hit a 10-year low. This past November, a record number of respondents in the Conference Board's survey said they thought the stock market would move higher over the next year. America clearly just went through a collective mood swing, especially when it comes to their investment portfolios. But is this happiness, a genuine mood shift that could sustain the stock rally well into the future? Or mania, a final act of hubris before the market gets its comeuppance?

The answer depends on the mechanics of Wall Street, where market moves depend more on expectations than reality. Measured optimism can be a powerful catalyst for stock prices, but even the best intentions can spiral into overconfidence — and pride often comes before a fall.

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The biggest market sell-offs in history were precipitated by economic crises. A catastrophe causes consumers to pull back on spending, company profits drop, executives cull hiring, and stock prices fall. What digs us out of these crises is confidence. Markets wallow in negative headlines until conditions change enough to sow optimism about the future — no matter how slim the hope may be. That's why over the past five decades we've seen the stock market turn higher an average of three months before recessions ended.

Even in less dire times, when it comes to your portfolio, expectations matter as much as — and maybe more than — the news itself. Think of it this way: What would you do if you knew you were about to get punched in the stomach? You'd tense and brace for impact, even if it doesn't end up hurting as much as you think. Markets work in a similar way. When lots of investors brace for a punch, they tend to discover that the actual punch doesn't hurt as bad. The opposite is true, too. If you get unexpectedly slugged out of nowhere, you have no time to prepare, and that punch is going to hurt. Generally, the sweet spot for markets is somewhere in the middle: excitement with a healthy dose of skepticism.

There are, thankfully, a slew of confidence and sentiment gauges that can help us determine whether investors are properly calibrated for the risks on the horizon or perhaps getting a little too comfortable. They also serve as a litmus test for what consumers and businesses expect for the future and, ultimately, what they may do with their money.

On the surface, we seem to be in a great spot. The Conference Board's gauges point to a cheerful American public, which historically is a good sign. Since 1970, when economic confidence has increased over a three-month span, the S&P 500 has climbed by an average of 10% over the following year. Usually, when people feel more confident, the economy — and the stock market — follow suit.

What reversed the vibecession? Well, it's complicated. Obviously we had a contentious election in November, and you could argue that confidence gauges have been skewed by the anticipation of a pro-growth, America-first administration. Politics are definitely a contributing factor, as they seem to be tinting everybody's glasses these days, but chalking it up to who's in the White House doesn't do the story justice.

First of all, confidence indicators started improving before Donald Trump won the election. The Conference Board economist Stephanie Guichard told me that fewer survey respondents than in 2020 were writing in to say that politics were the reason for their cheeriness.

The survey also suggests that hopes for the future have improved. Guichard told me there'd been a noticeable number of open-ended comments arguing that life feels more affordable. Maybe because, for some, it is. Wages have broadly outpaced inflation for the past 21 months, and more Americans are starting to adjust to what things cost these days.

Another interesting theory is that people are simply becoming more aware of the world around them. It's never been easier to keep up with the ups and downs of the stock market, and if we see a line move up and to the right, we often believe it can keep going. Data backs this up — over the past two years, 79% of the monthly changes in the Conference Board's stock market gauge have moved in the same direction as the S&P 500 (versus an average of 55% since 1987). No matter the cause, it's fair to say that Americans feel increasingly good about the future for legitimate reasons.

The problem, though, could lie in how confident we are.

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There is a fine line between confidence and arrogance.

Confidence is a constructive state of trust and certainty. It helps you own the room and control the narrative. Arrogance, on the other hand, is a destructive air of superiority. It sets you up for embarrassment, whispers, and abject failure. It's the difference between crushing your work presentation and being the butt of office jokes. Given the slim margin between merriness and mania, Wall Street may be dangerously close to tipping over to the wrong side of that line.

In November and December, the stock market seemed to defy gravity. Tech stocks were untouchable. Crypto bros started bragging about their bags. Fartcoin became a thing. The pot has been boiling over for a while now. Take the one-two punch of the Trump meme coin and DeepSeek. On January 17, Trump released $Trump, which jumped to $15 billion in market value in less than 48 hours. Days later, shares of Nvidia — the darling of the AI trade — tanked by an eye-catching 17% after the Chinese AI startup DeepSeek released a model promising function comparable to competitors for a fraction of the cost and energy use.

I can't help but look at both of these headlines and wonder if they're part of the same phenomenon. Did we become so confident in the market's prospects that we lost sight of the hefty risks coming down the pike? You can't judge a market solely on vibes. But if you don't think things have been getting a little overheated, you're not paying attention.

High expectations are where your portfolio can run into trouble. Rising optimism can be constructive until the investing population acts untouchable. Expectations become too lofty as cracks start to form. People look around nervously because they can feel the ground shifting. Then one blow knocks the market off its axis. This pattern has been evident throughout history. Before 2024, the Conference Board's gauge of stock market confidence reached its highest point in January 2018. That month, the S&P 500 slid by 10% during a violent two-week sell-off.

Its second-highest point was in January 2000, two months before the peak of Wall Street's most notorious mania — the tech bubble — and a 49% drop in the S&P 500.

Not every surge in optimism has such a dramatic ending, and what doomed the stock market back then isn't necessarily dooming it now. But there's one parallel I can't ignore.

Main Street and Wall Street aren't just confident; they're throwing caution to the wind in their portfolios. That makes me doubt the durability of the market if things turn south. Data from the American Association of Individual Investors indicates investors are keeping about 69% of their portfolio in single stocks or stock funds, near the highest level since 2021. And based on Bank of America's monthly allocation survey, professional money managers are holding their smallest percentage of cash in two decades.

We have plenty of reasons to feel upbeat about the months ahead. Companies are hiring, profits are growing, and people are spending money. The economy's foundation looks fine, if not slightly cracked from higher unemployment and job market friction. We're coming off back-to-back 20% years in the S&P 500 after a loud chorus of recession calls. C'mon, we deserve a little fun!

But let's face it: We've been spoiled as investors. And while it's tough to see a disastrous market crash while the economy is growing, we've lost the undercurrent of healthy skepticism that has guided prices higher these past few years.

Be confident, but be intentional about balance in an environment like this.

The punch may be just around the corner.

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Callie Cox is the chief market strategist at Ritholtz Wealth Management and the author of OptimistiCallie, a newsletter of Wall Street-quality research for everyday investors. You can view Ritholtz's disclosures here.

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I lined up outside Costco to buy eggs right when it opened. They were gone in 8 minutes.

Shoppers lined up outside Costco.

Talia Lakritz/Business Insider

• Egg prices have reached record highs due to egg supply issues amid a bird flu outbreak in the US.
• Some stores are imposing limits on how many eggs shoppers can buy.
• I lined up at Costco to buy eggs right when the store opened, and they sold out in minutes.

Egg supply issues in the US amid a bird flu outbreak have pushed prices to record highs and made it difficult for stores to keep cartons stocked on shelves.

In a survey conducted by Numerator, a market research firm, over half of shoppers said they'd seen shortages of eggs or found them out-of-stock at stores, including BJ's, Costco, Target, Trader Joe's, and Publix.

I visited a Costco store in New York City to see firsthand how consumers navigate egg supply issues and price hikes. Here's a play-by-play of how I managed to get one of the last cartons in the store.

9:29 a.m. — I arrived at Costco about 30 minutes before the store opened.

Costco in New York City.

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Manhattan's only Costco store is located at East River Plaza, a shopping complex in East Harlem.

I often have to circle the parking lot and wait for a spot when I make my usual Costco runs on Sunday afternoons, but I had no trouble finding a place to park that early.

9:34 a.m. — I spoke to a few shoppers who said they'd had trouble finding eggs in grocery stores.

Shoppers waited for the store to open.

Talia Lakritz/Business Insider

Some people I spoke with said they hadn't arrived early to buy eggs but instead preferred to shop when the store was less crowded. They also said morning grocery trips worked best with their busy schedules.

When asked why they were at the store so early, two people said they'd had trouble finding eggs at other stores and had come to Costco in search of an affordable supply.

"People don't want to overpay for eggs," one shopper, who declined to give his name, told Business Insider. "That's why I stock up on them."

"It's a shame. It's a shame how much eggs cost," another shopper who asked not to be identified said.

9:55 a.m. — A Costco employee came around to scan membership cards.

A Costco employee scanned membership cards.

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I noticed scanning membership cards beforehand allowed for better traffic flow once the doors opened.

9:58 a.m. — The crowd grew as more people arrived and lined up to enter the store.

Shoppers lined up outside Costco.

Talia Lakritz/Business Insider

Crowds gathered outside the store by the parking lot and in the indoor vestibule leading to the warehouse entrance. I estimated that there were around 30 to 40 people between them.

10:01 a.m. — The doors opened.

Entering Costco at 10:01 a.m.

Talia Lakritz/Business Insider

It took some maneuvering for all the people and carts to fit through the doors, but overall, I found the process orderly and efficient.

Some people stopped at the entrance to scan their cards again, but employees waved them through and said that wasn't necessary if they'd been processed outside.

10:02 a.m. — I marveled at the mostly empty aisles in what's normally a crowded store.

Costco at its opening time.

Talia Lakritz/Business Insider

I've shopped at Costco stores in the Midwest and Iceland. The busiest location is Costco in New York City. I'd never seen the aisles look so spacious.

10:03 a.m. — It seemed like everyone had the same destination in mind — the dairy, milk, and eggs refrigerated section.

The dairy, milk, and eggs section at Costco.

Talia Lakritz/Business Insider

I figured it was best to head straight there just in case the eggs went quickly.

10:04 a.m. — Success! There were still about 20 cartons left, each with two dozen Kirkland Signature large cage-free eggs.

Eggs at Costco at 10:04 a.m.

Talia Lakritz/Business Insider

I was surprised to find that there weren't any sets of five dozen cage-free eggs for sale, only smaller cartons with two dozen eggs.

A Costco employee told me that egg deliveries have been inconsistent and that the store's stock varies daily.

Since the Manhattan location hadn't received any eggs that morning, the cartons in stock were likely leftover from closing the day before, the employee said.

10:05 a.m. — I grabbed two cartons of eggs, one for myself and one for my neighbors, who asked me to get one for them.

Costco eggs in my shopping cart.

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My neighbors and I occasionally pick up items from Costco for each other. They bought me some cheese on their latest shopping trip, so I owed them a favor.

10:07 a.m. — The egg supply dwindled.

The supply of eggs at 10:07 a.m.

Talia Lakritz/Business Insider

I stayed in the refrigerated section to see how long it would take for the eggs to sell out.

10:08 a.m. — Just eight minutes after Costco opened, all of the eggs were gone.

No more eggs.

Talia Lakritz/Business Insider

I watched several shoppers, who had also arrived early, walk into the refrigerated section. They seemed to express disappointment after seeing the eggs were sold out.

10:12 a.m. — I looked around to see if Costco had posted any signs limiting egg purchases, but the Manhattan location didn't appear to have any.

The price of eggs at Costco in February 2025.

Talia Lakritz/Business Insider

I saw one person with six packages of eggs in their cart, but for the most part, shoppers took one or two cartons each when I was in the store.

Some Costco locations have limited customers to three egg cartons per person, but policies appear to vary by store. Costco representatives did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

10:31 a.m. — I paid $8.49 per carton, which was around $4.25 per dozen.

Self-checkout at Costco.

Talia Lakritz/Business Insider

The average price of a dozen large eggs in US cities was $4.95 as of January, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Costco's price during my visit was 70 cents lower than the national average.

In my experience, Manhattan's Costco usually has a small line of people waiting outside before it opens, but this shopping trip felt different. The strategic planning required to buy a carton of eggs reminded me of the frantic rush of securing Taylor Swift's Eras Tour tickets.

In this economy, eggs no longer feel like a basic grocery staple. They're a hot luxury item that flies off the shelves, available to the most devoted fans.

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