Monday, 28 March 2022

Baranowski on Ukraine war, Biden's remarks in Poland



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Oil drops over 4% as Covid cases force new lockdowns in China, while Russia and Ukraine talks resume

Canada, Alberta, Oil workers using oil drill.
Oil workers using oil drill.
  • Oil was down over 4% on Monday as the Chinese financial hub of Shanghai imposed a two-stage lockdown.
  • Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukraine is prepared to discuss neutrality in peace talks this week.
  • The US said it might release more oil from its reserves as OECD stockpiles hit their lowest since 2014.

Oil fell as much as 4% on Monday as a surge in cases of Covid-19 in China result in fresh lockdowns and peace talks between Ukraine and Russia appear to show signs of progress, meanwhile the US is considering dipping into its Strategic Petroleum Reserves again.  

Brent crude futures were down 3.95% at $113.42 a barrel by late morning in Europe, while West Texas Intermediate lost 4.32% to trade at around $109.58 a barrel. 

Covid cases have been on the rise in China over the past two weeks and now Shanghai has launched a two-stage lockdown, starting on Monday. The lockdown will see bridges and tunnels closed, while traffic is restricted in order to contain the spread.

China is a major consumer of crude oil and the shutdown is likely to erode local demand for energy.

"This action yet again highlights that China is not willing to drop its zero-covid policy and so continues to be a downside risk for the market," ING strategists said in a note.

Elsewhere, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy told journalists that his country is willing to discuss neutrality as part of the peace talks with Russia, which have yet to show significant progress. 

"Security guarantees and neutrality, non-nuclear status of our state. We are ready to go for it. This is the most important point," Zelenskyy said.

However, Ukraine is unwilling to discuss other demands made by Russia, such as the demilitarization of Ukraine, according to Zelenskyy. So far negotiations have centered around Ukraine staying out of NATO, disarmament and security guarantees, talks will continue in Turkey next week. 

The European Union and other countries are still considering sanctions on Russia's oil exports, which could remove as much as 3% of global daily supply from the market. Some OPEC members believe Russian oil supply is irreplaceable, which was echoed last week at the FT Commodities Global Summit. 

"Major oil trading companies Gunvor, Trafigura, Vitol and Mercuria seemed more or less unanimously agreeing that between 2 and 3 million barrels per day of crude and products from Russian exports will be lost to the global market," Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB, wrote in a note.  

The OPEC+ group of exporters, which includes Russia, will meet on Thursday in what could be the most interesting meeting of the year so far, according to some analysts, as the group mulls over whether or not to increase output more aggressively.  

"OPEC+ have had more time to assess the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war and so might feel more confident to take action. However, we are assuming that the group will stick to the current plan. Given that Russia is a member of OPEC+, they clearly have a say on what the group decides," Will Patterson, head of commodities strategy at ING, wrote.  

According to Reuters sources the US is considering releasing more oil from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve, or SPR, which could be even greater than the 30 million barrels released at the beginning of March, even though total OECD stockpiles are currently at their lowest point since 2014. 

Read more: Barclays shares why Fed hawkishness will put an end to the long-term stock market rally — and lists 7 investing sectors that will still perform in the low-return environment

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Ukraine is willing to discuss 'neutral status' in talks with Russia to end the invasion, Zelenskyy says

KYIV, UKRAINE - MARCH 28: (---EDITORIAL USE ONLY รข MANDATORY CREDIT - "UKRAINIAN PRESIDENCY / HANDOUT" - NO MARKETING NO ADVERTISING CAMPAIGNS - DISTRIBUTED AS A SERVICE TO CLIENTS----) A screen grab captured from a video shows Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy speaks on the talks to be held in Turkiye between the negotiating delegations of Ukraine and Russia, in Kyiv, Ukraine on March 28, 2022. (Photo by Ukrainian Presidency/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy seen on a video call on March 28, 2022.
  • Zelenskyy said Sunday that Ukraine is willing to discuss adopting "neutral status" with Russia. 
  • Putin has demanded that Ukraine guarantee neutrality for the invasion to end.
  • Zelenskyy rejected other demands Russia has made, but said compromise is possible.

President Volodymyr Zelensky said Ukraine is ready to discuss adopting "neutral status" in peace talks with Russia, according to Reuters.

Russia and Ukraine have engaged in several rounds of peace talks to end the invasion, which has now entered its second month, with the latest installment beginning in Turkey on Monday.

"Security guarantees and neutrality, non-nuclear status of our state. We are ready to go for it. This is the most important point," Zelenskyy told a group of Russian journalists during a 90-minute call on Sunday, Reuters said.

Earlier this month, President Vladimir Putin said a peace deal over Ukraine can only happen if Ukraine were to take a neutral status and not join NATO. 

Countries with similar stances are Austria, Sweden, and Finland.

However, Zelensky said Ukraine would not entertain the idea of demilitarization, a condition which Russia has also demanded for peace, Reuters said.

Despite Russia signalling that it is open to ending the conflict, its military has pressed on with its invasion of the country, extensively shelling the city of Mariupol.

"All entries and exits from the city of Mariupol are blocked," Zelenskyy said Sunday.

"The port is mined. A humanitarian catastrophe inside the city is unequivocal, because it is impossible to go there with food, medicine and water."

Russian forces have faced strident opposition from Ukraine's military, and Moscow appears to be trying to consolidate its hold on positions it has already taken, rather than try to seize the capital Kyiv. 

Gen. Kyrylo Budanov, Ukraine's intelligence chief, said Sunday that Putin may be trying to divide Ukraine in two, as happened with Korea .

On the Sunday call, Zelenskyy said that Ukraine wouldn't try to reclaim all the land that Russia has seized and that he wanted a "compromise" over the separatist-controlled Donbas region, Reuters said.

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Sunday, 27 March 2022

A World That's More Expensive Is Starting to Destroy Demand



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Russia Seizes Rare Swiss Watches in Sanctions Reprisal



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Blue Origin passengers who are 1st married couple to fly to space on commercial rocket say they've got plans to fly with SpaceX and Virgin Galactic too

Sharon and Mark Hagle floating in zero gravity
Blue Origin passengers Sharon and Mark Hagle floating in zero gravity.
  • Two Blue Origin passengers are the first married couple to fly to space on a commercial rocket.
  • Sharon and Mark Hagle told Insider they've also got plans to fly with SpaceX and Virgin Galactic.
  • Sharon said she'll take Richard Branson's advice to look through the window when in zero gravity.

After swimming with humpback whales and abseiling into caves in New Zealand, Sharon and Mark Hagle are taking their adventures to the next level by flying into space.

The Hagles, both 73, are two out of six passengers on Blue Origin's 20th journey to the edge of space on March 29.

Jeff Bezos' company will launch the passengers in a capsule atop the New Shepard rocket, sending them 60 miles above Earth's surface where they'll float in zero gravity for three minutes before the capsule parachutes descends back to the ground. 

In an exclusive interview with Insider, Sharon, CEO of nonprofit SpaceKids Global, and Mark, president and CEO of property development corporation Tricor International, said they were very excited for the whole experience.

"We hope we're talking to each other when we come back to earth because ... it's gonna be an experience that's going to test our fortitude," Mark joked.

However, Sharon and Mark aren't prepared to put their space travels to bed after the Blue Origin flight. "Hopefully, we can do it four times," Sharon said.

Blue Origin passenger Sharon Hagle
Blue Origin passenger Sharon Hagle.

The couple are have already signed up to Richard Branson's Virgin Galactic, and are having conversations with Elon Musk's SpaceX and tourism company Space Perspective.

"If somebody else introduces it, maybe we can do it more than that," Sharon said.

The pair, who have been married 26 years, said they registered for Blue Origin flight tickets in May 2021, took part in the auction, and found out prior to Christmas that they'd been successful.

"We were under nondisclosure. Do you know how difficult it is to have this information and not be able to tell anybody?" Marc said.

The Hagles, who live in Florida, said they'll head to Blue Origin's campsite in Texas a few days before the flight for training, despite already having previous practice with zero gravity.

When the capsule reaches the edge of space and the passengers unstrap themselves from their seats, Marc and Sharon said they want to concentrate on what's going on around them so they don't lose the moment.

Saba, Sharon and Mark Hagle's dog.
Saba, Sharon and Mark Hagle's dog.

"I'm going to take some feedback from my friend, Richard Branson, who said if he had it to do over again, he'd stay in his seat and look out the window," Sharon said.

The couple will also be accompanied by their dog, Saba, for part of the journey. Although he won't be flying into space, Blue Origin has designed him a spacesuit to wear around the campsite.

Doing the spaceflight together is an "extraordinary" experience, according to the Hagles.

"My thought is you go, I go," Sharon said. "Mark has always taken me out of my comfort zone."

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KFC is redesigning its restaurants. Some will have dual drive-thru lanes and a separate entrance for online orders – take a look inside.

KFC Next Gen restaurant
The interior of a KFC Next-Gen restaurant in Baldwin Park, California.
  • KFC is redesigning its restaurants as more customers order online and at drive-thrus.
  • Some of the new sites will have dual drive-thru lanes and a separate entrance for online orders.
  • There'll be dedicated parking spots for online orders and delivery drivers, too.
KFC is rolling out a new restaurant design as more customers order their chicken to take home. The restaurants are adapted to surging demand for delivery, drive-thru, and advance ordering.
KFC Next Gen restaurant design
The exterior of a drive-thru KFC Next-Gen restaurant in Berea, Kentucky.

Source: Insider

KFC opened the first of its Next Gen restaurants in Berea, Kentucky in 2021. It's since opened six more, and told Insider that initial feedback from staff, customers, and franchisees has been "very positive."
KFC Next Gen restaurant design
The exterior of a drive-thru KFC Next-Gen restaurant in Berea, Kentucky.
KFC told Insider that the new design aimed to make its brand "more modern" and create a "more forward-looking, more efficient restaurant inside and out that optimizes all access points to KFC."
KFC Next Gen restaurant design
The interior of a drive-thru KFC Next-Gen restaurant in Berea, Kentucky.
The Next-Gen model is split into two models – drive-thru restaurants and inline restaurants, which will be in more urban areas.
KFC Next Gen restaurant interior
The interior of an inline KFC Next-Gen restaurant in Baldwin Park, California.
The ones with drive-thrus will focus largely on off-premise consumption. Some of these won't have dining rooms, just a lobby for customers and delivery drivers to pick up their orders, meaning they'll be much smaller than normal KFC restaurants. The smallest will be 1,300 square feet, KFC said.
KFC Next Gen restaurant design
The features will vary between sites but some will have a separate entrance for online orders and delivery drivers.
KFC Next Gen restaurant design
The interior of a drive-thru KFC Next-Gen restaurant in Berea, Kentucky.
There'll be dedicated parking spots for online orders and delivery drivers, too.
KFC drive thru next generation prototype
A mock-up of the parking lot at a KFC Next Gen restaurant.

Source: Insider

Some restaurants will have collection cubbies for customers who placed orders online, too. KFC said that digital sales at its US restaurant grew approximately 70% in 2021.
KFC drive thru next generation prototype
A mock-up of the online order collection point at a KFC Next Gen restaurant.
The Berea location boasts the chain's first-ever dual-lane drive thru. KFC told Insider that drive-thru makes up around 70% of its total US sales.
KFC Next Gen restaurant design
The exterior of a drive-thru KFC Next-Gen restaurant in Berea, Kentucky.
"Drive-thru continues to be our biggest channel, and hence Next Gen focuses on elevating the drive-thru experience via visual and digital tools," a KFC spokesperson told Insider.
KFC drive thru next generation prototype
A mock-up of the drive-thru at a KFC Next Gen restaurant.
The double lanes are just for ordering, though. The drive-thru lines will merge into one to pay and collect their orders at the window.
KFC drive thru next generation prototype
A mock-up of the drive-thru at a KFC Next Gen restaurant.

Source: Insider

KFC told Insider that it planned to open around 110 new restaurants in the US in 2022, of which between five and ten would be urban inline stores and the rest would be traditional free-standing drive-thru restaurants.
KFC Next Gen restaurant design
The exterior of a drive-thru KFC Next-Gen restaurant in Berea, Kentucky.
Around 30% of the restaurants in KFC's construction pipeline will be Next-Gen sites, KFC told Insider. It currently has around 4,000 restaurants in the US.
KFC Next Gen restaurant
The interior of a KFC Next-Gen restaurant in Baldwin Park, California.
KFC opened almost 2,000 net new restaurants in 2021, bringing its total count to just under 27,000. KFC's parent company said that this was a "record development year" for the brand, with large growth in China, India, and Russia.
KFC drive-thru

Source: Yum! Brands Q4 2021 earnings call

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AI is taking over the painstaking work of Silicon Valley's most-coveted engineers

CUDA inventor Ian Buck, vice president of hyperscale and high-performance computing at Nvidia. GTC CUDA engineers are elite coders who squee...