Jeffrey Gundlach compared the AI-fueled boom in stocks to the dot-com bubble.
DoubleLine Capital's billionaire CEO predicted sticky inflation and an economic slump.
Two other market gurus, Bill Gross and John Hussman, warned of extreme stock valuations this week.
Jeffrey Gundlach has warned the AI-crazed stock market reminds him of the dot-com bubble — and predicted a painful mix of stubborn inflation and economic decline lies ahead.
"This feels a lot like 1999," DoubleLine Capital's CEO said on an X Spaces conversation this week.
The billionaire investor noted the Nasdaq index surged 80% in the fourth quarter of 1999, but 12 months later it was down 85% from its peak.
Gundlach described the current market as "grabby" and momentum-driven, and said he would only invest in an equal-weighted index as he's "not interested in owning seven stocks."
The fund manager was referring to the so-called Magnificent Seven, a group including Nvidia and Microsoft that has grown so large it accounts for a massive chunk of market cap-weighted indexes like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100.
Gundlach acknowledged that members like Meta are highly profitable, unlike their dot-com predecessors. But he repeated the old maxim that the faster and higher things go up, "the harder they fall."
"This is no place to be taking fresh, aggressive positions in anything risky," Gundlach said. "There's a lot of risk in markets that have run this far."
In addition to AI, the prospect of interest-rate cuts this year has sent stocks skyward. Lower rates tend to boost companies' sales by encouraging customers to spend instead of save, and usually lift corporate profits by cutting interest costs.
Gundlach warned that a recent increase in crude oil prices would probably accelerate inflation. He also cautioned that if growth falters, the Fed might cut rates too low and shrink its balance sheet too aggressively, causing prices to surge again.
"We're going to have an inflationary economic slowdown," he said, flagging the risk of a "stagflationary type of an environment."
Exuberance and bubbles
Bill Gross, another billionaire bond investor, echoed Gundlach's concern about overstretched stocks in an outlook published on Friday.
The PIMCO cofounder questioned why the market is trading at record highs when interest rates have jumped from virtually zero to north of 5% over the past two years. That's reduced the appeal of risky assets like stocks by lifting the guaranteed returns from Treasurys and savings accounts.
"Fiscal deficit spending and AI enthusiasm have been overriding factors and momentum, and 'irrational' exuberance have dominated markets since 2022," Gross said.
John Hussman, the president of Hussman Investment Trust, went a step further in a research note on Friday.
The longtime market bear warned that stocks have only been this extremely valued twice before: the day before the market peaked in January 2022, and at the height of the 1929 bubble that preceded the Wall Street Crash and Great Depression.
"My impression is that investors are presently enjoying the double-top of the most extreme speculative bubble in US financial history," Hussman said.
Laura Leuillier, a career coach, shared three signs a workplace might be toxic you can spot before you accept a job there.
1. A high staff turnover
If people are quick to leave a company, it could be a sign of problems, Leuillier said.
She suggested searching LinkedIn to figure out how long its employees typically stay in their roles at the company.
She said asking employees in your prospective team could be helpful, as could exploring comments about a company on Glassdoor. On Glassdoor, keep an eye out for negative comments that are repeated in different employees' reviews, she advised.
2. The hiring manager doesn't let you speak during the interview
Interviewees should be allowed to feel comfortable and showcase their skills but feel "healthily challenged," Leuillier said.
But she added that if the hiring manager doesn't allow you to speak or appears indifferent to what you say, that can be a sign they'll be difficult to work with.
"If you feel like they're not really listening to your answers and don't have time to ask questions that you need to, then that is a serious red flag," she added.
She added that if they start badmouthing other employees in the interview or seem overly defensive, that's also a bad sign.
3. They answer your questions defensively or with buzzwords
To learn a lot about a company's culture during an interview, Leuillier suggested asking your potential boss about the type of employee that thrives in the company, who they work best with, how they like to communicate, and how often.
"If they freeze up and get defensive or offended by those questions, that is a red flag. They should be welcoming," Leuillier said.
Certain buzzwords can reveal that a company has a negative culture, she said. Saying "work hard, play hard" could mean they don't prioritize work-life balance, Leuillier added.
She said that all of her clients who have had a "bad feeling" during the interview but accepted the position have gone to have problems in that workplace.
If you get a job at a toxic workplace, Leuillier said, "chances are, you'll be back on the job market in six to 12 months."
Prosecutors filed a new antitrust case against Apple, and Microsoft features in it prominently.
Microsoft settled a blockbuster antitrust case in 2001. The DOJ said it paved the way for Apple's rise.
The shadow of the Microsoft case also hangs over a Google antitrust trial, which wrapped up in the fall.
Prosecutors suing Apple in a major new antitrust case said the granddaddy of tech antitrust lawsuits — the US' 1998 case against Microsoft — gave Apple the space to grow and eventually dominate the tech industry.
The Microsoft case will likely figure prominently in the government's arguments against Apple, both in legal precedent and, already, in prosecutors' explanation of Apple's transition from computers to tech ruler.
But the Microsoft case was far from straightforward. Government agencies investigated and even settled with the company in the early 1990s, before the Department of Justice pursued a case in 1998 with several states. The central claim of the landmark case was that Microsoft created a monopoly through its operating systems, choking competitors like Netscape and Apple.
The first decision in what became a winding Microsoft lawsuit would have broken up the company into two, one for the operating system and the other for software production. Appeals ended in a 2001 settlement that, among other measures, required Microsoft to share parts of its source code with third parties. Such sharing was meant to catalyze more development — though some states thought that solution was inadequate. But the company was not split up and it remains a tech juggernaut.
On Thursday, the DOJ argued that the 2001 Microsoft settlement let Apple build its tools on Windows products, like iTunes for Windows personal computers. On the heels of that success, Apple kept innovating and struck gold with the iPhone and its App Store to become an entrenched tech player well beyond desktop computers.
Now, the DOJ and 16 attorneys general are going after Apple, employing similar arguments that they used against Microsoft. Prosecutors said Apple has its hands in too many pots and suppresses competition for everything from payments to smart watches by "delaying, degrading, or outright blocking" other technology.
Apple plans to fight the lawsuit, which it said in a statement would "set a dangerous precedent, empowering government to take a heavy hand in designing people's technology."
The government hasn't won a big tech antitrust case like Microsoft since, although it's trying a similar playbook with Google's parent company Alphabet. That trial wrapped up in November and is awaiting the judge's decision; he said at closing arguments that he had "no idea" how he would rule.
Microsoft appeared 26 times in Thursday's complaint, the most by far of any tech company.
We know you probably embellish some of your achievements and downplay some of the tougher situations. We know your top priority is great compensation, and if you win the lottery that evening, you probably won't show up at work the next day.
We all play the game, and sometimes that means exaggerating a bit. But there are three things that you should absolutely never lie about.
1. Never lie about where you've worked and your dates of employment
A background check will list the employers you've had along with dates of employment. Padding your résumé to hide an employment gap or citing examples from places you've never worked will likely raise major questions about your integrity and could lead to a rescinded offer.
A few years back, I interviewed someone whose résumé showed two years of experience in a role with an organization that I was pretty familiar with. But when I asked about their experiences, they shared several things that seemed inconsistent with what I knew about the organization. The employer didn't appear on their LinkedIn profile either.
It turned out they had worked in that role for only a few months but claimed to have held the position for a few years to show more relevant experience. The result was that we weren't interested in the candidate.
Instead: List every employer and note the years instead of months worked
List every employer you've ever worked for, with accurate dates. It's OK to note the years instead of months to minimize the perception of job-hopping if needed.
If you've done periods of freelance work, you can group these under one job and list dates within that period and the projects you worked on. Doing so will make it look more cohesive than listing out a series of short-term projects. You can name the companies you've worked with, but don't imply employment if it was simply a one-off short-term project.
2. Never lie about your references
While it may be tempting to use fake references when you're not confident about what previous employers will share, it's not a good idea.
Companies will generally check references to understand the projects and initiatives you've worked on and how you've impacted the business. A reference that fails to clearly articulate this with specificity may cause more harm than good.
I once met someone at a social event and commiserated with them about their bad relationship with their manager. Then, they asked me if I'd be willing to be a fake reference for them and give them my number and a fake email to pretend to be their manager.
My answer? No! Not only could doing this potentially have ramifications for me, but even if the employer never caught on, I knew I wouldn't be able to speak to this person's work convincingly.
Some potential red flags to a hiring manager could be if the reference's LinkedIn doesn't show that they worked at the same company as you, or if all of your references have personal email addresses instead of professional ones. These could cast doubt upon you as a candidate and lead to questions.
If you reach the reference stage with a potential employer, they want you and are excited about you. The references are simply there to validate that you are, in fact, a great match. The last thing you want to do is cast doubt on that through the people you list on a reference check.
Instead: Consider mentors or colleagues with a more senior title
First, go through your previous managers and department leaders and identify those you know were your fans. If you don't have a past manager who can vouch for you, consider another mentor or person with a more senior title. Select a few peers as well.
Let them know that you'd like to use them as a reference, and check if they are comfortable with that. Provide them with your résumé and highlight a few recent achievements.
Employers will generally want to hear from at least one manager and other stakeholders who know your work so that they can get a more well-rounded view of your impact.
3. Never lie about your hard skills
We know that everyone exaggerates a bit to paint their experiences in a more positive light. But you should never completely invent skills or claim expertise in an area with which you have no experience.
Even if you land the job, the truth will come out as the company assesses skills through work products. Not having the necessary skills could lead to failing to perform well and damaging your reputation.
You might even find yourself out of a job after just a few short weeks — and that could leave you in an even worse situation as you start from square one with a new job search. Meanwhile, if you had been honest, perhaps you could've been considered for other roles that would've actually been a good fit.
Instead: Build on skills in the job description
Ahead of the interview, read the job description carefully to identify the hard skills that are most important to do the job and take some time to build skills in the required area. Watch videos or practice where you can.
In the interview, note that this is a newer area of knowledge for you, but highlight the work you've already done to learn the skills in this area.
If you have no experience with a certain skill, make sure to list the adjacent skills that you do have. Maybe you haven't used Power BI, but you're a pro at Tableau. Or you've never coded in Python, but you know Java and Ruby on Rails.
Highlight what you bring to the table. Perhaps you don't speak fluent Spanish, but you're good at using a translation app alongside your intermediate Spanish skills to get by in most conversations.
Also, share examples of other times you've quickly gotten up to speed in a new area. This will show that, while you're learning, you're also someone with a lot of initiative and won't be held back by a lack of experience in one small area.
Lies can end up being more damaging
In a tough job market, it can be tempting to lie. But in the long run, these lies will often be uncovered at some point in the process and could be more damaging to you than just being honest in the first place.
Bonnie Dilber is the business recruiting team lead at Zapier. Before moving into tech, she spent years in education and nonprofits as a teacher, program manager, and recruitment leader.
Christine Harmon founded her own events company, ChrisFête, after her wedding didn't go as planned.
She specializes in high-end children's parties that cost anywhere from $10,000 to $30,000.
At every party, she ensures the parents are catered for and everyone knows when it's time to leave.
By her own account, Christine Harmon's wedding in 2016 was a "disaster." The arrangements were wrong when she saw the flowers on the tables, but it was too late to swap them out. Then the start time for the ceremony was delayed by the late arrival of the chairs, which were delivered with minutes to spare.
"They had to go all the way across Philadelphia, on Memorial Day weekend, in the middle of Friday traffic, and get the rest of them," Harmon told Business Insider. "It was a mess."
The misfires actually inspired Harmon. "I'm very type A, and I didn't think it was as good as what I could've done," she said. "There was a coordinator on-site, but I learned the hard way that you're just a number to them." Two months later, she set up her own events company, ChrisFête.
The mom of five sons quickly identified a smart, lucrative niche: high-end children's parties. Her team of nine throws at least one party a month, and the budgets start at $10,000, but some clients have spent $30,000 or more, even for parties with just a few children.
Harmon throws parties for families across industries, but she has a word-of-mouth client base within the NFL through her husband, free safety Duron Harmon. Many of her husband's teammates have the budgets for bigger children's bashes and seek out her services.
Harmon got her start at the Plaza Hotel
Harmon studied hospitality management and worked as an events assistant at the Plaza Hotel where she first encountered wealthy children and, more importantly, their parents. They often questioned every aspect of the parties Harmon and her team were hired to handle. The offspring could be just as demanding.
Now planning events alone, she spends around two months prepping each party, but some parties have been requested within the same week. She works between 20-40 hours a week, depending on the complexity of the event and whether travel is involved.
The themes align with the child's — or parents' — interests
A "Toy Story"-themed birthday party.
Leosage Images
Harmon likes to meet and understand the whole family before suggesting a theme.
The ChrisFête team has thrown a five-year-old's "Toy Story"-themed party, complete with Buzz Lightyear-adorned cupcakes and cow-spotted balloons, as well as a party for a Hot Wheels-loving three-year-old, with an inflatable truck-shaped slide.
A one-year-old's Hole-in-One event, though, was likely as much about the parents' desire to produce a future Masters pro as the baby's interests, with its own mini putting green, ball pit, and 19th Hole-style refreshment station.
Cobe's 1st birthday party.
Ferdinande Fotography
She said she likes to host unique parties for her own children, as with her son Cobe's first birthday party. "When he smiled it just reminded me of a baby koala, so I took that and created a koala-themed first birthday," she said.
Cobe's 1st birthday party.
Ferdinande Fotography
The theme for his second birthday was Itsy Bitsy Spider. "There wasn't anything online I could draw inspiration from. I had my graphic designer make his invitation and gave it to all the vendors to execute their elements — we created our own customized Itsy Bitsy Spider pieces."
Cobe's 2nd birthday party.
Kim Hymes Photography
There's one aspect of any kids' party that matters more than everything else
The key to any successful children's party is simple. "You have to entertain the kids for it to be fun for the guest of honor and their friends," she said. "I hate going to a kids' party where all they do is run around, and then it's time to cut the cake and say goodbye."
A "Sing"-themed birthday party.
Fuertes Photography
A ball pit is the best distraction for younger kids, and a bouncy castle will occupy even pre-teens. Magicians are a staple, and she even once hired an exotic animal handler for an Australian Outback-themed party, who showcased small reptiles and a baby alligator.
A trick when hiring face painters is to ensure one child is ready-painted when the others start arriving to inspire the rest of the attendees to ask for it, too.
Scheduling is crucial and always built around naptime, usually from 12 noon to 4 p.m. or so, and no longer than that. "They'll get bored, and if you want to get good photos, you need to work around naptime."
It's also important to ensure any entertainment is programmed until at least the final half-hour of the event. "Otherwise, a child might go up to get their face painted at the end, and they've gone," she said. "Now they'll cry, and it's all your fault."
There's no request that's too outlandish
A cake spread at a 1st birthday party.
Haley Rynn Ringo Photo
Harmon's crew occasionally receives an outrageous request. One client had a pet emergency and requested backup. "She said, 'My dog poop people didn't come this week, so could my staff go around and pick up her dog's poop?'," Harmon said. "I don't have dogs, so I'm not picking up anyone's poop. But one of my girls was fine with it — she's a team player."
Last-minute food requests are commonplace and irritating — one client asked for donuts during set-up, Harmon said, and so the party crew offered to drive to collect some and risk the party starting before the backyard décor was completed. A family member instead was able to pick them up.
There's always a bar for parents since the younger kids she typically caters to will be accompanied instead of dropped off. The adults can be trickier than their offspring. "One time we had a mimosa bar, and someone asked for coffee — I said 'There's no barista here'," she said. "But our hostess was so sweet, and she went to make them coffee."
Every party should end the same way
Every event ends with a rousing round of "Happy Birthday." "It's the cue, the unspoken time to exit, so typically, we do it right before the end. When we do the cake and remove everything from the dessert table, guests know it's time to leave."
Even though the parties only last a few hours, guests pay for the memory of celebrating a milestone. "If you're hiring us to do a first birthday party, you know the child won't remember it, but I'll guarantee the parents do," Harmon said. "It's more to us than just a party, it's something that will be passed down to your family for so many years."
Biden announced nearly $6 billion in student-debt relief for 78,000 borrowers in public service.
Biden will also send emails to another 380,000 borrowers that they're on track for the same relief within one or two years.
The relief is a result of fixes to the Public Service Loan Forgiveness program.
Student-loan forgiveness is on the way for thousands more borrowers who have worked in public service.
On Thursday, President Joe Biden's White House announced that it would be canceling nearly $6 billion in student debt for 78,000 borrowers in the Public Service Loan Forgiveness program, which forgiveness debt for government and nonprofit workers after 10 years of qualifying payments.
According to a press release from the Education Department, this latest batch of relief results from fixes to PSLF, including borrowers who benefited from the limited-time waiver that expired in 2022 to allow past payments that previously didn't qualify for relief to count toward forgiveness progress.
"For too long, our nation's teachers, nurses, social workers, firefighters, and other public servants faced logistical troubles and trap doors when they tried to access the debt relief they were entitled to under the law," Education Secretary Miguel Cardona said in a statement. "With this announcement, the Biden-Harris Administration is showing how we're taking further steps not only to fix those trap doors, but also to expand opportunity to many more Americans."
"Today, more than 100 times more borrowers are eligible for PSLF than there were at the beginning of the Administration," Cardona said.
Biden will email impacted borrowers next week to congratulate them on their relief. Biden will also email an additional 380,000 borrowers in public service who are within one or two years of loan forgiveness through PSLF.
"If you continue your career in public service, you're on track to get your eligible student loans forgiven in less than two years through Public Service Loan Forgiveness," one version of Biden's letter, reviewed by Business Insider, said.
A senior administration official told reporters on a Wednesday press call that Biden is directly communicating with borrowers because he wants them to be aware of the benefits PSLF can offer, along with the impacts debt relief can have on Americans and families.
This relief comes on the heels of a range of targeted actions the Education Department has implemented over the past year to get more relief to borrowers. For example, the department announced in February that 153,000 borrowers would get $1.2 billion in debt relief — a result of a new provision of the new SAVE income-driven repayment plan that shortens the timeline for borrowers to see debt cancellation.
Still, many other borrowers are struggling to navigate the return to repayment that began in October after an over three-year payment pause. The Education Department found that all four major federal student-loan servicers failed to send on-time billing statements to borrowers, and it released an accountability framework in December to ensure oversight over the servicers.
But strained funding at Federal Student Aid is still leaving both borrowers and servicers without the resources they need to navigate the return to repayment effectively.
The 36mm Rolex Oyster Perpetual Day-Date with a mother-of-pearl dial and president band retails for just under $42,000.
Jordan Hart/BI
Rolex watches are some of the world's most recognizable and well-known accessories.
They also come with a high price tag, and buying one isn't as simple as just walking into a store.
An official Rolex retailer explained how it all works.
You might be disappointed if you walk into a Rolex retailer hoping to leave with a watch the very same day, but the process isn't as intimidating as it may seem.
The Swiss brand, which started out producing timepieces for explorers and sportspeople in the early 20th century, is now best known for its watches coveted by collectors and luxury enthusiasts — especially as demand surged during the pandemic.
However, you can't just head to your computer or phone and add a brand new Rolex Daytona to your cart, as the brand doesn't sell its watches online. Going to the website and finding an official retailer located near you is your first step to ownership.
Store director Caitlin Hausser walked Business Insider through how to buy a Rolex from William Barthman Jeweler in New York City.
You can find a Rolex for as low as $5,600
The 36mm blue Oyster Perpetual Datejust and black 40mm Oyster Perpetual Air-King retail for $7,450 while the pink 34mm Oyster Perpetual retails for $5,800.
Jordan Hart/BI
The jeweler, situated on New York City's Wall Street in the shadow of the New York Stock Exchange, sells the entirety of Rolex's watch catalog. Prices can range from $5,600 to upwards of $85,000, Hausser told BI.
They often see new clients who want to celebrate a promotion, a bonus, or a new baby.
One thing to note if you got a really big bonus, though: for the off-catalog pieces — the ones with the most bling — you'll have to look elsewhere.
It's not as difficult to buy as other luxury accessories
Rolex Daytona models are in the highest demand, Hausser told BI.
Jordan Hart/BI
Unlike with an Hermès Kelly or Birkin bag, which requires you to be an existing client before purchasing, William Barthman will add you to its client book right away and start working on getting you a Rolex.
From there, it's all about what's available, Hausser said. "Everyone wants everything right now" and some models are harder to come by than others, but "nothing is impossible."
"We always ask for your top three choices."
Tougher-to-find types currently include the highly coveted Rolex Daytona — owned by ultra-wealthy collectors like Jay-Z.
But, unlike Hermès, its business model isn't geared to benefit long-term clients. "Rolex wants new clients," Hausser told BI. "We want everyone to have a Rolex."
There's no favoritism, Hausser said. For example, if you have the same top choice as an existing client, you might get that watch while they get their second choice.
Orders have to be approved by Rolex
Rolex makes watches in precious metals and stainless steel.
Jordan Hart/BI
For the more common watch models, like a Datejust, Hausser said William Barthman can immediately place your order — but it'll have to be approved by Rolex first.
But it's not an application process. The watchmaker just has to make sure it has your specific model in stock before it approves the transaction and sends the piece to the store.
"Then, Rolex gives us an estimate and we tell clients that it'll be this month, next month, or in the next two to three months," Hausser said.
But until then, you won't know how long you'll have to wait for your new watch. Clients don't have to pay for their new Rolex until it's time to pick it up, Hausser told BI.
Above all, Hausser emphasized that anyone intimidated by the brand should just stop by an official retailer (like hers) to check out the watches.
Buying a Rolex is "a big milestone," she said. "It's all about keeping the dream alive."
