The author (not pictured) lets her first grader stay home from school occasionally.
Klaus Vedfelt/Getty Images
When my first grader wakes up and says she doesn't feel like going to school, I let her stay home.
Though it's only happened twice, I don't mind letting her have a mental health day.
I want her to know her feelings are valid and she doesn't have to push through feeling 'off.'
The other day, I started waking my 6-year-old daughter up for school. She opened her sleepy little eyes and immediately said, "Idon't want to go to schooltoday."
I asked her why and if she was feeling sick. She said she didn't — she just didn't feel up to going. I didn't push her much and told her she could stay home.
It might seem strange to keep my first grader home from school when she wasn't sick, but I had my reasons.
I want my daughter to know she doesn't always have to push through
I know my daughter very well. She loves going to school, so much so that on days when she has been noticeably sick, I have had to force her to stay home because she wants to go. She's actually disappointed on the weekends when there's no school.
But there's more to it than that.
She was clearly having an off day. Though my daughter didn't tell me that anything specific was bothering her, it seemed thatshe was just feeling offand didn't feel up to being in a school environment.
And I want my daughter to know now, at an early age, that it's OK to have off days and just not feel like doing anything, includinggoing to school. So, I made the decision to allow my daughter to skip school for a mental health day.
As an adult, I've often been made to feel that I always have to be "on" and ready for anything. Especially now that I'm older, there are plenty of times when I just have to suck it up and do what I'm supposed to do. But I'm also human, and it's important toacknowledge what I'm feeling.
I want my daughter to trust me enough to know that she can talk to me about anything, including whatever she may be feeling. I don't want to teach her that she always has to push through everything and set aside what she's feeling to do things she doesn't want to. Yes, there may be times that she'll have to do that, but I want her to know that's not always the case and that she's allowed to make that judgment call.
I'm going to keep trusting my gut and letting her take mental health days
I've only allowed her to stay home when she's not sick on two occasions, and both of these times, it's been clear she hasn't been feeling up to going to school. When I give her these
mental health days, I ask her if there is something specific bothering her. However, if she is especially moody, I try not to push her to talk too much. I will usually wait and let her come to me when she is ready to talk about what she's feeling.
I also make it clear that she canstay home for the day, but she's expected to go to school the next day. And you know what? My method pays off.
My daughter gets to have a day at home, resting, enjoying being a child, and doing nothing. She is a firecracker, the kind of kid who doesn't stop talking, so if she feels she needs a day to just chill, I don't mind giving her that. Plus, after a few hours, she usually seems more energized and is back to her usual self, and whatever was bothering her has passed.
The next day, when I wake her up, she practically jumps out of bed to get ready because she's so excited to head back to school. So, while it might seem somewhat unorthodox, I am going to continue sticking with my instincts and following my gut. When my daughter needs a mental health day from school, she can take it — no questions asked.
Former President Joe Biden and President Donald Trump meet at the White House shortly after the November 2024 general election.
Alex Wong/Getty Images
Trump's economic policies have sparked recession fears and a drop in the stock market.
The S&P 500's recent correction reflects investor concerns over Trump's policies.
With the 2026 midterms not far off, Trump risks political damage by ignoring the worsening mood.
President Donald Trump might be making a mistake that cost Democrats the election last year.
Similar to how President Joe Biden's insistence that the economy was strong glossed over the pain of high inflation for many Americans, the Trump administration may now be ignoring darkening economic vibes.
While inflation became a sticking point for voters, the Biden administration was criticized for rarely acknowledging it. Whether Biden and the Democrats were responsible for the bulk of the inflation during his term, voters saw a disconnect between the messaging of a strong economy and dwindling affordability for everyday items.
In its first few months, the Trump administration has been plagued by a declining stock market, a plunge in sentiment among consumers, businesses, and investors, and growing concerns about a recession — and yet, there's been little acknowledgment or outright dismissal of some of the pain stemming from the uncertainty created by Trump's policies.
"Clearly sentiment is on its back heels," Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's, told Business Insider. "You can see that in business surveys, in consumer surveys, and, of course, the stock market."
The administration has tried to downplay the situation. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said corrections are "healthy" and that the administration will stomach market volatility while it pursues its goals.
Meanwhile, Trump has continued to insist tariffs are an economic windfall even as markets and consumers fret over their impact.
But a declining stock market could serve as an overhang for the economy if it doesn't rebound soon — and it highlights a big difference between the downbeat mood during the Biden administration versus the early days of Trump's term.
"With Biden, the inflation problem was already in the rearview mirror," Zandi said. "There's nothing they could do about the higher prices, they were there and they undermined sentiment, but it wasn't like that was undermining the economy."
This time around, the administration risks a "vibecession" turning into an actual recession.
Zandi added that the stock market's performance can have a material impact on the broader economy, which is why Trump and Bessent should probably not dismiss the sell-off.
"The economy is very dependent on consumers continuing to spend, particularly the well-to-do, and the well-to-do are focused like a laser beam on their stock portfolios, and if the stock market shows a lot of red, they don't feel good and at some point they're going to pull back on their spending and that could be the fodder for a broad economic downturn," Zandi explained.
Wall Street takes notice
This week, RBC strategist Lori Calvasina lowered her year-end S&P 500 price target to 6,200 from 6,600, citing "more evidence that vibes have been weakening."
In a note on Monday, Calvasina said sentiment has weakened among investors, consumers, small businesses, and large businesses, suggesting that there is no clear buying opportunity for stocks yet.
"It's a tricky moment in the US equity market," Calvasina said.
"The vibes have helped us understand why the stock market has been getting hit so hard, and why concerns about the direction of the economy are rising. But the vibes aren't sending us a clear signal about whether, even with the S&P 500 down 10% from all time highs, a contrarian buying opportunity is at hand."
Ed Yardeni also lowered his "best-case" year-end price target for the S&P 500 to 6,400 from 7,000, arguing that the heightened economic uncertainty is a good reason for stock valuations to decline.
Strategists at Goldman Sachs also lowered their price target, to 6,200 from 6,500, due to the increased political uncertainty surrounding tariffs and its impact on broader economic growth. Goldman also recently upped its recession probability to 20% fro 15%.
Meanwhile, data is mounting that consumers and businesses are under pressure. More households report not having enough set aside to cover a $2,000 emergency, while while a growing number of public companies have said policy uncertainty is clouding their view in 2025.
The next big catalyst for investors to watch is April 2, which is when Trump has threatened to implement reciprocal tariffs.
"It's going to do damage," Zandi said of the tariff threats. "Whether that pushes us into a recession does depend on the collective psyche, how fragile is it really and how do the people and the market react," he added.
If Trump's proposed tariffs are enacted, America's tariff rate would surge to levels not seen since the 1930s.
"If you see a large number of trading partners responding in kind, then that's the fodder for a recession," Zandi said, who added that Trump's first trade war in 2018 damaged the economy, especially the manufacturing sector.
Still time to pivot
But if a deal to avoid a trade war materializes, Trump would have an out that would help clear up some of the uncertainty that has plagued markets.
"If push comes to shove, he'll pivot, and you got to give him credit, he's quite good at that, changing course and declaring victory and moving on," Zandi said. "I think that's the base case but I say that with less confidence with each passing day."
The real risk for Trump is being rejected at the polls, as the Democrats did last year after the economic mood soured.
Yardeni predicted Trump will relent to avoid a recession, as a downturn would likely cost Republicans their majorities in both the House and the Senate in the 2026 mid-term elections.
"I think it is dangerous to ignore those darkening vibes, both from a broader economic perspective and politically," Zandi said.
Emily B. Brown lost nearly $63,000 in contract work for federal foreign aid agencies.
Brown specializes in gender equality and social inclusion — initiatives that Trump is eradicating.
She's part of the ripple effects of Trump's slashing of federal spending and crackdown on DEI.
Emily B. Brown has been a self-employed consultant long enough to know that her cash flow is often feast or famine. But what she couldn't prepare for was the dismantling of federal agencies that funded much of her work.
In February, she lost all of her contracted income for 2025 — a ripple effect of President Donald Trump's government spending freeze and cuts to US foreign aid.
Because she owns her own business, Brown isn't eligible for unemployment benefits. She's had to pick up two part-time jobs in retail and as a scuba diving instructor to pay her basic expenses like rent.
"I have to support myself," Brown, who lives in Key West, Florida, said. "I haven't worked in any industry but politics and foreign aid since I was 21."
Trump and Elon Musk's White House DOGE office argue the moves put "American interests" first and reduce wasteful spending, while opponents of the administration's actions are raising alarm that the US will cede global influence to China and are already causing preventable deaths overseas.
"President Trump serves the American people, not government contractors who want to make a buck off of taxpayers through DEI and other programs that do not align with the America First agenda," White House Deputy Press Secretary Anna Kelly told Business Insider in a statement. "He is implementing policies that drive private sector growth, uplift small businesses, and level the playing field for American companies on the world stage."
The administration and DOGE have been hit with a flurry of lawsuits challenging the USAID shutdown and efforts to shrink the federal workforce. While the fate of US international development plays out in the courts, Brown's career path is in limbo.
DEI work dries up
Brown, 39, has worked in international development for more than a decade and specializes in gender equality and social inclusion.
She lined up three contracts for 2025, totaling about $63,000, funded by USAID and the Millenium Challenge Corporation, an independent foreign aid agency that awards grants to lower-income countries to promote economic growth, reduce poverty, and root out corruption.
Starting in late January, that work came to a halt — zeroing out Brown's expected earnings, according to documents reviewed by Business Insider.
Brown shared e-mails showing that her contract with a USAID-funded program was terminated as of February 13. It was an anti-corruption program aimed at countering illicit money laundering in industries like shipping ports and real estate. Brown was assigned to Albania, which is trying to enter the European Union by 2030, and Ghana. She was set to travel to Albania and conduct gender analyses to identify who was most vulnerable to corruption or exploitation when she got an order to stop working.
Brown said she hasn't been paid for the work she completed in January and shared an invoice showing she is owed nearly $3,700 — a month's worth of her expenses by the Millenium Challenge Corporation, a partner of USAID.
Emails show that Brown's two other contracts with the Millenium Challenge Corporation are on hold while they are reviewed by the Trump administration. Brown was going to conduct research on the barriers that girls, women, persons with disabilities, and others face in accessing secondary education in Timor Leste and Gambia. The research would help MCC plan for potential investments in those countries.
"My expertise is in gender equality and social inclusion," Brown said. "What that means in international development programming is making sure that US-funded programs reach the most in-need and at-risk. That is generally women, children, and people with disabilities."
Brown said the Biden administration's focus on equity created a lot of opportunities for her consulting services. But after Trump won the election, she started to see that work dwindle. Even if the MCC investments do move forward, Brown said she's worried her expertise won't be needed anymore as the Trump administration eradicates diversity, equity, and inclusion initiatives across the federal government.
"At the end of 2024, organizations were starting to become a little more cautious," Brown said. "Then post-election, much more cautious with how they were investing funds in consultants with gender and inclusion expertise."
Brown said the weeks after her contracts dried up were dark. In Key West, there aren't many workers reliant on the federal government like her, so few understand the grief she's feeling. She also feels scared about the future because Trump and DOGE are targeting civil society organizations that don't align with their agenda. She described it as "authoritarian."
"It wasn't until I started getting out on that dive boat at least once or twice a week in the sun and in the water that I started to feel a little better emotionally and physically," Brown said. "I still choke up on my free days."
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Betting markets think bitcoin has already just about peaked in 2025.
Bettors expect the coin to hit $110,000 this year, just slightly above its January all-time high.
But bulls are still calling for the apex cryptocurrency to soar to eye-watering heights this year.
Crypto bulls aren't shaken by the jarring volatility this year, but betting markets think there are strong odds the token has just about peaked in 2025.
While betting markets predict that bitcoin is likely to edge above its record high of around $109,000 reached in January, bettors don't see much upside from there — and even if the token is to breach new highs, speculators are also gearing up for a deeper decline.
A Polymarket bet with trading volume of over $5 million indicates 61% odds that the apex token will hit $110,000 in 2025, barely above its all-time high.
Beyond that, confidence tapers off. The chances that bitcoin will reach $150,000 or $200,000 this year are 29% and 14% on the platform, respectively.
The majority of Polymarket speculators see bitcoin dipping to around $70,000. Those betting on the Kalshi exchange are even gloomier, predicting the token could bottom around $64,000, the lowest level since last October.
The pessimism isn't limited to bitcoin, either. Polymarket bettors see ethereum, the second-largest crypto, hitting $1,500 this year, about 24% lower than its price on Friday.
Since bitcoin surged to an all-time high of $109,026 in January, enthusiasm has fallen off dramatically amid a whirlwind of economic concerns that have hurt risk assets.
Other factors, such as a major crypto hack and chaos in memecoins, have helped dampen sentiment.
The bulls don't budge
The bulls are undaunted.
"Crypto skeptics can cringe all along, but it remains hard to ignore the timeline. We are in a new era. It still screams bullish to us," Bernstein analysts wrote in a note published March 3. "We still think Bitcoin is headed to $200K."
This type of thinking isn't unique to the investment firm, which cited that industry sentiment — unlike the market's — has never been better.
Under President Donald Trump, stringent regulation of crypto is easing, while friendly policies are beginning to emerge — even if they're taking more time than originally expected.
It's for similar reasons that others have reiterated their high-end forecasts in recent weeks. Standard Chartered analyst Geoff Kendrick is even more convinced that bitcoin will reach $200,000 by the end of the year, as macro issues prompt rate cuts, which would be bullish for bitcoin.
21Shares strategists see a similar outcome and expect lower interest rates to increase crypto liquidity and boost bitcoin to $150,000.
Given the importance of Fed policy, concerned crypto investors should watch upcoming inflation data to determine when momentum will return, Amberdata's head of research Mike Marshall told Business Insider.
Still others expect much higher figures, with Strategy founder and bitcoin evangelist Michael Saylor calling a $444,000 year-end price for bitcoin.
"To shake long-term conviction, you'd need more than short-term price action; you'd need real structural setbacks, like stalled ETF flows, regulatory whiplash, or a breakdown in on-chain fundamentals. So far, none of that has happened," Mike Cahill, CEO of Douro Labs, told BI.
But what does it mean that Saxon (Patrick Schwarzenegger) opts for two different watches worth five figures apiece, and is there any reason Tim (Jason Isaacs) and Victoria (Parker Posey) sport matching Rolexes?
Business Insider spoke to Paul Altieri, the founder & CEO of Bob's Watches, to glean what the luxury timepieces worn by the guests of Thailand's White Lotus can tell us about their characters — and reveal what's still to come this season.
Jaclyn wears a $12,000 quiet luxury Hermès
Michelle Monaghan as Jaclyn, wearing a $12,000 Hermès Nantucket.
Fabio Lovino/HBO
Hollywood star Jaclyn (Michelle Monaghan) wears a $12,000 rose gold Hermès Nantucket. Altieri described it as a quiet luxury choice that leans more toward jewelry than a statement watch.
"It's a sign of someone who's been around money long enough to not have to prove anything — at least on the surface," he added.
Laurie's Cartier piece is classic and confident
Carrie Coon as Laurie, wearing a Cartier Baignoire.
Fabio Lovino/HBO
Corporate lawyer Laurie (Carrie Coon) sports a $7,250 Cartier Baignoire timepiece that's a bit understated, matching her character's lower maintenance affect compared to her friends.
"The Baignoire is subtle, classic, and timeless," Altieri said. "Laurie's pick says she's confident, no-nonsense, and has nothing to prove."
Tim and Victoria sport matching Rolexes
Parker Posey as Victoria Ratliff, wearing a Rolex Day-Date.
HBO
The Ratliff parents wear matching yellow gold Rolex Day-Date Presidents, and there are some signs they've had theirs for a while. Tim's (Jason Isaacs) navy dial is only available through the resale market now, and it's worth about $45,000, according to Altieri.
"The Day-Date is the power watch. Always has been," Altieri said. "It's wealth, tradition, and authority all in one." Rolex advertises it as the watch of "the past and of future leaders," which speaks to Tim's professional ambition and the traditional values Victoria (Parker Posey) espouses.
Victoria also wears her Rolex loose, which could mirror her character's mildly anesthetized demeanor. Yet her watch also matches her husband's, which means she may be in lockstep with him. Perhaps she knows more about the family's finances than she's letting on.
Saxon has a mix of practical and conspicuous wristwear
Patrick Schwarzenegger as Saxon, left, wearing a Hublot Big Bang Unico Black Magic.
Altieri described the Hublot as "a watch that screams for attention" because of its bold and oversized look. "He's clearly trying to prove something, whether to himself or his family," Altieri said.
The Milgauss, on the other hand, is an unconventional choice. It was originally made for scientists who needed their timepieces to withstand magnetic fields, an odd choice for a finance nepo baby. Maybe this former Duke frat star has hidden depths yet to be seen?
Lastly, Saxon's Apple Watch seems pretty on brand with his creatine-guzzling, fist-pumping gym bro persona.
Sritala's timepiece is all style
Lek Patravadi as Sritala, left, wearing a $380,000 Jacob & Co. Fleurs de Jardin.
HBO
Hotel owner Sritiala (Lek Patravadi) wears the most expensive timepiece on the show: a Jacob & Co. Fleurs de Jardin, which retails for $380,000.
"That's a status symbol — nobody's wearing it to tell the time," Dayna Alexander, a content creator who's gained a steady following from White Lotus wardrobe deep dives, told BI.
Altieri agreed. "This is pure spectacle. Complicated, extravagant, and more jewelry than a watch. It's for someone who wants attention and isn't afraid to flaunt it."
Perfect for a glamorous hotel owner who isn't afraid of the spotlight.
Rick's choice is practical, not showy
Walton Goggins and Aimee Lou Wood on season three of "The White Lotus."
Fabio Lovino/HBO
Rick's (Walton Goggins) Timex Q GMT is more affordable than most other timepieces on the show, retailing for under $250. It's not flashy, but it's respected by watchmakers. Altieri described it as the watch of someone who "appreciates style and function, but without the need for a luxury flex," matching the vintage shirts worn by Goggins' character.
Lochlan's watch is playful and suggests individuality
Sam Nivola as Lochlan Ratliffe, wearing a MoonSwatch Mission to Saturn.
HBO
Lochlan's (Sam Nivola) MoonSwatch Mission to Saturn stands in stark contrast to his family's Rolexes. It costs less than $300, far cheaper than the Rolexes his parents and brother wear.
The MoonSwatch is modeled on a watch with major historical significance. The model Lochlan wears is an affordable timepiece inspired by the Speedmaster Professional, or "Moonwatch," which became the official watch for NASA astronauts in the 1960s.
"The Mission to Saturn adds an extra layer of individuality — less predictable than the usual Mission to the Moon choice," Altieri said. "Worn by someone who's in the know but doesn't take things too seriously."
His watch choice could hint at a possible break away from his family's world as the youngest Ratliff charts his own path in Thailand.
JT McCallen landed a new job five months after being laid off. He shared his tips for navigating the labor market.
JT McCallen
JT McCallen secured a new job five months after he was laid off last year.
A career coach helped craft a résumé and cover letter that might bypass AI bots scanning candidates.
He added that staying social and having a side hustle helped his mental health and bank account.
This as-told-to essay is based on a conversation with JT McCallen, a 37-year-old account manager who lives in Memphis, Tennessee. The following has been edited for length and clarity.
About a year ago, I had an inkling — between how things were going with the job and company — that things weren't looking great. So I started casually looking for work. Around early August, the layoff I had been anticipating finally came.
I was told I'd be receiving three months of severance pay, but there was no mention of the outplacement services I knew companies sometimes included — which provide access to various job-search resources. I asked my manager if one of these services could be included in my severance package, and while I was cleaning out my office, I learned my request had been granted. I'd have access to a service for about three months.
Before the layoff, my search generally consisted of browsing job boards like LinkedIn, Indeed, and Monster and setting up alerts for the types of roles I was interested in. I had been working as an inventory control manager for a medical device company, and I was hoping to land a similar role in the supply chain distribution industry.
When I got laid off, I got much more serious about my search. The first thing I did was reach out to every recruiter I'd previously connected with and set up a 30-minute call to discuss any job leads and their perspective on the hiring landscape.
They told me I'd have to find a way to bypass the AI bots that some companies use to filter candidates. They also said to be wary of job postings that companies aren't actively hiring for — but keep up in part to give the impression they're hiring. A posting could look nice, but it might not actually be legit.
The overall takeaway: My job search might not be easy.
My career coach helped me get on track
When I started applying for jobs, I felt like I was throwing rocks in the ocean, and I struggled to land any interviews. I hoped the outplacement service, Randstad RiseSmart, might help me turn the tide. In September, about a month and a half after I was laid off, I started meeting with a career coach once every few weeks.
My career coach helped me improve my résumé and cover letters — and cater them to the specific job I was applying for. They recommended I do some research on every company I applied to and include details like their mission statement, location, and the exact job title they were hiring for in my cover letter. The hope was that including relevant keywords in my résumé and cover letter would help me get past the AI filters and land phone screen interviews — where I could talk to an actual person and discuss my expertise.
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I was also told to message people on LinkedIn who worked at the companies I applied to and say, "Hey, I just applied for this job. Can you put me in touch with the hiring manager, the recruiter?" Probably 99 times out of 100, they're going to ignore it, but maybe you get through to a couple of people. It was something that had worked for some of my career coach's clients in the past.
After having almost no luck with my applications before I was laid off, things started to turn around. I went from getting maybe one phone screen interview between May and August to getting five or six between September and December. I got to the second interview round for three or four roles and made it to the final round for two of those. On Christmas Eve, I received an official job offer that I ultimately accepted.
In January, I started my new job as a key account manager at a company in the same industry as my prior employer. The role is a bit more client-support-focused than my old one, but much of the knowledge and experience from my previous job has been transferable. My new job doesn't pay quite as much as my old one did, but it's within the salary range I was looking for.
My advice for job seekers
I'd recommend other job seekers take the time to improve their résumé and cover letters — and consider seeking out professional help for at least a little while if they're not sure how to do this.
I'd also recommend that people think about how they might be able to bring in some income while they look for work. Shortly after I was laid off, I was able to get hired by a company to clean swimming pools and do water chemistry maintenance: I had some experience with this work from managing my at-home pool. I worked between 20 and 35 hours a week, and while the $20 hourly pay was well below what I'm accustomed to, it helped me avoid digging into my savings. My wife works full-time, which provided an additional income stream.
Lastly, I'd recommend taking care of your mental health. I tried to have lunch at least once a month with a couple of people I used to work with. These lunches made me feel like I had people in my corner supporting me — and helped me stay current on industry trends.
My therapist was also very helpful. They said they have helped many other people deal with life changes like layoffs, and it was good to have that reference point of, "Hey, others have been through it, it's going to be OK. Here are some ways we can keep you moving and motivated."
In its quest for government efficiency, the Elon Musk-linked office appears to be screwing up Americans' summer plans. Now it looks like it could be the first summer in a long time where travel hot spots won't be completely overrun with tourists — but it's not entirely clear yet what conditions those destinations will be in.
National parks are facing potential staff reductions, reduced services, and trail closures as a result of the Trump administration's spending cuts, with park workers and advocates warning they still don't know what this summer will look like. The mass uncertainty has already altered some Americans' summer plans and dug into the local economies that depend on the business summer usually brings.
Take Yosemite National Park. The local population surges every summer as more than half a million people make their way to the valley each month, but this year already looks very different.
"People have been canceling reservations they already made and the amount of reservations that should be getting in right now, that's been slowed down significantly," Shirley Horn, the board secretary and treasurer of the Highway 120 Chamber of Commerce, which represents businesses along the iconic thoroughfare, told Business Insider.
Park advocates say the cuts could impact everything from visitor safety to bathroom maintenance, while business groups near the park say the uncertainty alone has taken a toll on their bookings, with tourists simply choosing to vacation elsewhere — to destinations untouched by DOGE-induced doubt and unpredictability.
Demonstrations against cuts to the National Park Service has taken place at Yosemite and other national parks around the US.
Laure Andrillon/AFP/Getty Images
Tourists are already rethinking their summer trips
"Summer bookings are way down over what we've ever seen before," said Lee Zimmerman, the co-owner of First Light Resorts, which owns or manages three resorts near Yosemite: Evergreen Lodge, Rush Creek Lodge and Spa, and Firefall Ranch.
Zimmerman told BI they are down thousands of booked rooms across the three properties, even though the main booking season for summer travel is typically January to March.
The Trump administration slashed thousands of jobs at the agencies that manage public lands, like the National Park Service and the US Forest Service. After a federal judge has ordered the Trump administration to reinstate fired probationary workers, NPS told BI it would work to comply with the order while the White House appeals. The National Park Conservation Association said Thursday NPS had authorized the rehiring of the nearly 1,000 probationary employees whose jobs were terminated.
"This chaotic whiplash is no way to manage the Park Service, especially as they are welcoming millions of visitors right now," Theresa Pierno, president and CEO of the park advocacy group, said in a statement.
It's unclear how that rehiring will play out or what could happen on appeal, so staffing levels at parks this summer remain uncertain.
The US Department of Agriculture, which oversees the US Forest Service, also told BI it was working on rehiring the fired probationary employees and said it intends "to maintain access to recreation opportunities to the greatest degree possible."
There's been other disruptions, too. At Yosemite, for instance, NPS last month suspended the timed-entry reservation system, which required visitors to reserve a set date and time to enter the park. Horn said not knowing whether there would be a reservation system or not has made it difficult for people to plan trips — why book a hotel room when you can't be certain you'll even be able to get into the park on the days you're there?
The park service has still not said if the reservation system will be in place this summer, but Zimmerman said at this point, if the park decided to use one, it would be a "disaster" since it could disrupt trips that have already been planned.
The Cape Cod National Seashore is a big draw for tourists during the summer.
John Greim/LightRocket via Getty Images
Meanwhile on the east coast, Paul Niedzwiecki, the CEO of the Cape Cod Chamber of Commerce, told BI that bookings of hotels and short-term lodging are currently down more than 5% for the peak season of July and August in Cape Cod, a scenic peninsula in Massachusetts that's home to the Cape Cod National Seashore. If lodging rentals stay down, he said, that has a compounding effect on other local businesses like restaurants and outdoor recreation shops.
Niedzwiecki also expects to see a decline in visitors from Canada, adding the chamber has already heard from a number of recurring Canadian visitors who have been "very direct" about not wanting to visit this year "because they don't feel welcome given the state of national politics."
Horn said businesses in the Highway 120 corridor near Yosemite are also seeing fewer international visitors book summer trips to the area, something that is typically done well in advance.
Now might actually be a good time to visit a typically busy destination — with some precautions
Jonathan Farrington, CEO of the Yosemite/Mariposa County Tourism Bureau, said they do not believe the visitor experience at Yosemite will be greatly impacted by the federal government change-ups. He noted that the park typically has nearly 800 full-time and seasonal staff in the summer and that about 35 positions have been cut, including 10 who were let go and around 25 who took the deferred resignation offer.
The most important thing, he said, will be the park filling the around 300 seasonal positions. Though the administration's hiring freeze initially applied to seasonal workers at national parks, it later reversed course and said those hirings would go forward.
Zimmerman, of the Yosemite resorts, also said that he is not concerned about the visitor experience in the park this year, and that now might actually be a good time to visit. Yosemite, like other popular national parks, has faced overcrowding concerns in recent summers.
Many national parks have dealt with overcrowding concerns in recent years.
DAVID MCNEW/AFP/Getty Images
He said the general confusion and concerns around staffing, reservations, and access to parks could be contributing to people staying away. "Uncertainty makes it difficult for visitors to discern what's really going on and to commit to taking their vacation in the park," he said.
For folks who do decide to visit public lands this year, it's still not clear what they will find. Park advocates have warned that if the staffing and funding cuts remain, summer visitors can expect a more restricted, if not more risky, experience.
"Visitor centers will close, lines will grow longer, and basic maintenance — such as cleaning restrooms and facilities — will suffer," Phil Francis, the chair of the Coalition to Protect America's National Parks Executive Council, told BI of what could happen if parks are severely understaffed. "Millions of Americans who cherish their national parks may find them inaccessible, poorly maintained, or unsafe."
Carl Fisher, the executive director of the Wyoming Outdoor Council, an environmental advocacy nonprofit, said visitors to places like Yellowstone National Park and Grand Teton National Park could see more trails and hiking areas being closed or having reduced hours, which could cut people's vacations short, he said. And if there are fewer workers to maintain them, the areas that do remain open may become more dangerous for visitors.
"These are natural, wild, dynamic environments, and you can mess yourself up just crawling over and around deadfall. People can get lost because, well, they won't be able to find the trail," Fisher told BI, adding that it poses a significant risk for inexperienced or first-time visitors.
Outdoor advocates in Wyoming said NPS cuts could negatively impact trial access and facility maintenance at Yellowstone National Park.
Ron Buskirk/UCG/Universal Images Group/Getty Images
Small businesses near national parks could feel the pinch too
Local businesses like gear rental outfitters and guides rely on open and accessible parks to offer their services, said Grace Templeton, who works on community engagement projects at an outdoor recreation advocacy group called Wyoming Pathways.
If trails are closed or poorly maintained, Templeton said, businesses that offer everything from mountain shuttle services to climbing guides to fishing expeditions could be upended. She's already heard from at least one business that's "very concerned" about the lifeline of its business: access to trails.
Templeton also said that without federal funds for projects like trail development, local economies that rely on tourism could take a hit. For example, she said, her organization added a trail in the Thermopolis area of Wyoming, "and now they're getting tons of mountain bike tourism," adding "it's very important for these trails, increased quality of life for residents, and drawing visitors in."
Horn, of the Chamber of Commerce near Yosemite, said the cuts and uncertainty have made it hard for local businesses that rely on seasonal workers to know how many people to hire for the summer, which could lead to them being under- or overstaffed.
Right now she said businesses near Yosemite are trying to get the message out that the national parks will be open this summer, but that the lack of information from the park service has made it unclear to many what exactly being open will look like.
"It's what I call the FUD factor," she said. "The fear, uncertainty, and doubt that happens when these kinds of external shocks go through economies and local communities."
