Howdy, readers. Phil Rosen here, reporting from New York City.
For many months now, I've been having conversations and writing about economic indicators that all point to a recession.
But it still hasn't officially happened yet, at least according to the secretive, little-known group that's responsible for declaring them. They've stayed mum even as the economy goes haywire.
In any case, there's a batch of signals in the American trucking industry that have been trying to warn us for months that there's trouble ahead — and plenty of turmoil that's already here.
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1. The US is in the midst of a "freight recession," meaning there's fewer trucks delivering goods around the country.
That slowdown, in turn, has dragged diesel prices down by almost half since last May, with the Wall Street Journal reporting wholesale diesel falling from $5.34 to $2.65.
The key industrial fuel, which is used to power machines and vehicles in countless sectors, began to dip first during the warmer-than-expected winter. Diminishing factory output and weaker demand for trucks has dragged prices down further.
The American Trucking Association's for-hire contract truck tonnage index dropped to its lowest level since August 2021, and domestic demand for diesel is down 8.4% since last year.
All this, too, is showing up in transportation companies.
In a call last week, JB Hunt reported a bad earnings miss, and executives said a recovery for trucking looks uncertain.
"It's just a question of when and what position will we be in when our customers start ringing our phone again in ways that they have in the past," JB Hunt CEO John Roberts said.
Outside the trucking sector, the classic recession indicators are blaring, too:
- The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index just dipped for the 12th consecutive month.
- The New York Fed's Recession Probabilities Model puts the odds of a downturn at 57%, the highest mark since 1982.
What's your recession outlook? Has it already started? Tweet me (@philrosenn) or email me (prosen@insider.com) to let me know.
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Curated by Phil Rosen in New York. Feedback or tips? Tweet @philrosenn or email prosen@insider.com.
Edited by Max Adams (@maxradams) in New York and Hallam Bullock (@hallam_bullock) in London.
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