China doesn't have the military power to successfully invade Taiwan, the majority of 52 US experts said in a survey

Taiwanese soldiers stand guard as flares are fired during a Taiwanese military live-fire drill, after Beijing increased its military exercises near Taiwan, in Pingtung, Taiwan, 6 September 2022.

Ceng Shou Yi/NurPhoto via Getty Images

• The CSIS surveyed 52 US experts on whether they think China can successfully invade Taiwan.
• Only 27% thought Beijing could pull off a successful amphibious assault.
• A key factor that led to their answers is their belief that the US would intervene in an invasion.

A new survey of leading experts from the US and Taiwan casts doubt on China's ability to invade Taiwan with its current military strength.

The survey, released on Monday by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, or CSIS, gathered opinions from 52 experts in the US in November and December 2023.

These included people with extensive experience in the US government, academics, and think-tank experts who have testified in Congress before, the center said.

And only 27% of them think the People's Liberation Army has the might to pull off an amphibious invasion, per the report.

A deciding factor for many of these experts was their belief that the US military would directly intervene in the event of such an attack.

"An overwhelming 96% of US experts were completely or moderately confident that if China invades Taiwan in the next five years, the US military would intervene to defend Taiwan," the report said.

CSIS also surveyed 35 experts from Taiwan, of whom only 17% said they felt China had the power to successfully execute an invasion.

The survey also comes after multiple reports that China has been purging the PLA of corrupt officials, with cases of graft so severe that Beijing's considerations toward any major military action in the next few years may be affected.

Experts think a quarantine or blockade is more likely

When asked if China could effectively pressure Taiwan through a quarantine or blockade, the majority on both sides shifted in favor of Beijing.

About 91% of the US experts believed China could create a quarantine of Taiwan, restricting the flow of goods in and out of the island through non-military means. Conversely, only 63% of Taiwanese experts agreed that China is capable of this.

An example of this would be squeezing traffic to Taiwanese ports through a customs inspections regime, the center said.

China could also impose a military blockade on Taiwan, which 81% of US experts believe Beijing could do, while 60% of the experts from Taiwan concurred.

Both a quarantine and a blockade could escalate into an invasion, with China encircling Taiwan before it launches an assault, the report said.

Most US experts believe Washington would intervene if China takes either course of restrictive action, with 63% agreeing the US would step in during a quarantine and 79% saying Washington would intervene in the event of a basic blockade.

That confidence isn't shared by experts in Taiwan. Only 40% of them said the US would intervene in a quarantine, and 60% said it would intervene during a blockade.

A pessimistic outlook for 2024

The majority of experts were pessimistic about the year ahead for cross-strait relations, with 58% of experts in Taiwan thinking a crisis between both governments — such as large-scale military exercises and an escalation of threats from China — is likely in 2024.

US attitudes were even more negative. Around 68% of American experts think such a crisis is likely to occur.

Taiwan's electing of William Lai Ching-te, its outgoing vice president, as the island's new leader earlier this month has stoked fears that China will double down on its aggression toward Taipei.

Lai is central to the Democratic Progressive Party, which largely campaigns on resisting Beijing. Taiwan's outgoing president, Tsai Ing-wen, has been increasingly hawkish toward China as Beijing, led by Xi Jinping, simultaneously heaped threats of invasion on the island.

China is believed to have much preferred Lai's rival candidate from the Kuomintang party, which has encouraged warmer ties with Beijing. Ma Ying-jeou, Taiwan's former president under the Kuomintang party, met with Xi Jinping in 2015.

ROSLAN RAHMAN/AFP via Getty Images

Lai's ascension as Taiwan's top leader is widely seen as a likely source of further conflict, though he has pledged to uphold the status quo. In a sign of the growing tensions ahead, Beijing has been issuing individual rebukes to countries around the world for congratulating Lai on his election victory.

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