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- William Lai Ching-te of Taiwan's ruling Democratic Progressive Party won the island's presidential election on Saturday.
- China framed Saturday's polls as a choice between "peace and war."
- Beijing claims Taiwan as its territory and views Lai as a separatist.
China doesn't like Taiwan's new president-elect — at all.
Beijing had been vocal about its dislike of Wiliam Lai Ching-te from Taiwan's ruling Democratic Progressive Party, or DPP, even before he won the island's presidential election on Saturday with 40.05% of the vote.
In August, China's foreign ministry released a statement slamming Lai's stopover in the US en route to South America. "Lai Ching-te clings stubbornly to the separatist position for 'Taiwan independence.' He is a troublemaker through and through," the foreign ministry said.
In December, an official for China's Taiwan Affairs Office called Lai a "destroyer of cross-strait peace" and the potential "creator of a dangerous war."
So, why does Beijing hate Lai so much?
It's because, in Beijing's view, the 64-year-old doctor-turned-politician is a separatist.
A matter of Taiwan's independence
In 2017, while he was premier, Lai referred to himself as a "pragmatic worker for 'Taiwan independence.'" He has since walked back on the stance, saying there's no need to declare formal independence because Taiwan is already a de facto state.
However, the line about Taiwan's independence continues to be an issue for Beijing, which claims the self-ruled island as its territory even though the Chinese Communist Party has never governed it. On New Year's Eve, Chinese leader Xi Jinping reaffirmed the country's position on Taiwan, saying "reunification" is inveitable.
Lai has pledged to maintain status quo and stability in Taiwan, but China isn't backing down on its stance either. Beijing has been ramping up military drills around the island in the last few years and has called Taiwan's election a choice between "peace and war, prosperity and decline."
"I think China hates him, really hates him," Wu Xinbo, an international relations professor at Shanghai's Fudan University, told Reuters, referring to Lai.
"It is because if he is elected as the leader of Taiwan, he may come to advance his goal of Taiwan independence, which will provoke a crisis across the Taiwan Strait," added Wu.
Beijing appeared to dismiss the results of Taiwan's election, with Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi saying on Sunday that Taiwan is part of China no matter the results of the island's elections.
Analysts say China is likely to retaliate against Lai's win by stepping up military drills, and also economically. Jeremy Mark, a fellow at the Atlantic Council, wrote on Friday that Beijing could cancel tariff-free entry for Taiwanese goods under a 2010 agreement.
Since Taiwan is a semiconductor powerhouse, potential blockades of shipping lanes around the island could impact global trade.
"The likely victory of William Lai in Taiwan's presidential election this weekend will likely elicit a response from China, including military exercises near Taiwan that potentially disrupt critical shipping flows," wrote analysts at the Eurasia Group in a note on Friday, before the polls.
"This could add more lead time for circumnavigation of the island and potentially raise insurance rates, depending on the location and intensity of the exercises," they added.
But for many Taiwanese people — much like for voters elsewhere — bread and butter issues like cost of living, stagnant wages, and high housing costs are front of mind. This is evident in the results of the island's legislative election, where the DPP lost its majority, taking 51 out of 113 seats. No party won a majority.
"Beijing and the KMT tried to frame the election as a matter of independence or unification, war or peace, prosperity or stagnation. These binaries had little overall effect," wrote Chong Ja Ian, a political science professor at the National University of Singapore and a non-resident scholar at Carnegie China, in a commentary on Sunday for Channel News Asia.
"This normalization of the challenge from Beijing reduced the electoral effects of pressure from China," Chong added.
Lai's inauguration is scheduled for May 20 when current Taiwanese president Tsai Ing-wen steps down after two terms.
from Business Insider https://ift.tt/VpUvd1J
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